rockchalk83

One thing to watch will be if a large complex of storms can develop in the warm sector, thereby pulling the system southeast and, perhaps, limiting accumulations of ice/snow. The waffling will continue, obviously, but I think going forward, that's going to be where the game is played.

A little slower, too? Or are my eyes deceiving me....

The Canadian has been in the camp of ejecting out a little quicker and farther east than most models. It ultimately ends up being weaker (to some extent) and it has a broader energy envelope. Sensible impacts remain the same, just shifted east from where consensus has it.

I thought the same thing, too. When looking at the 500 mb vorticity, it really gets wrapped up and moves farther west as a result. I'm inclined to think it won't get *that* wrapped up and track farther west, but some of the ensemble members in all the suites are showing this, so it's a trend to watch.

12z RDPS continues the theme of an ice storm from central OK through Missouri. Quarter to two-thirds of an inch of ice possible if that run verifies.

Don't say that. Some places in southwest Kansas have had 30 inches of snow already this year. Wichita has had about 2 inches.

06z ECMWF, 06z ICON and 12z NAM have shifted west with the storm. Would like to have it be 2-4 degrees colder because if not, someone is going to get a helluva ice storm. Nice stripe of snow on the backside, too.

The 12z GEFS is not as warm for SW Mo as the op run. There is hope?

There was a discernable shift west in the 00z Euro & 06z GFS ensembles (stronger and somewhat slower), while the 06z Canadian Ensembles and the 12z NAM keep everything a little more open and to the east. The trend has been for stronger systems out here this year, I wonder if this will continue?

How far out does the off-hour ECMWF go out to? Would be interesting to see how this progressed.

Can we lock that in, please?!?

Good point. I didn't even think about where it would wrap up. The 12z Canadian shows a scenario where it wraps up across Oklahoma (500 mb level) and brings warm air into much of the region. Ice and snow storm for central and western Kansas. A small step toward the GFS, for sure.

In comparing the 12z GFS to the 00z Canadian and 00z Euro models, it appears the high pressure (modeled to be 1038-1042mb) is one of the keys to watch. All the models agree on a diffluent southwesterly flow with a lee-side low (modeled 999-1003 mb) developing, but, the degree of warmth is predicated on where the high pressure sets up and how strong that low is. If it's over MN, then we're looking at a big winter storm. Over southern Ontario, then we're looking at rain and storms. How have the models handled cold air masses so far this season?

Thank you! Its very interesting that a decent number of members plastered the region with big snows and the outliers were dry.

I'd be interested in seeing the individual member breakdowns to see if they are as robust as the op run? My feeling is that the heft from the op run contributed to the big jump in totals in C KS.

The 3KM NAM with a little different look than it's traditional counterpart. The biggest headache with the forecast is going to be where the system matures...along and northwest of that point, is going to be where the heaviest snow falls. Unfortunately, we may not know that until the high-res hourly runs tomorrow, even though the system will be fully sampled in later model runs today.

I'll agree with MUWX's assessment that the bulls eye right now is between I-70 and I-44. Something to keep in mind here is that this isn't the typical winter system we have out here, where we have a huge low coming out and a large precip shield. Rather, this is a rather weak low and the event will be driven by warm air advection processes. The whole forecast is going to hinge on where the baroclinic zone sets up, as that will be the axis that sees the 2-8" snows. Overall, for it being >3 days out, the models have a good agreement on some type of winter storm out here this weekend. It will be nice to see some snow over a widespread area, since most of us have been dry for a while.

If the mean trough is in the Southwest US, wouldn’t that mean more severe weather for our region?

Here you go:

Here is Kuchera snowfall off the Euro:

Some places in SC KS got 10 inches of snow. The town of Kingman, just west of Wichita, picked up 3 inches in one hour as a band really intensified overhead. This banding feature was really well forecasted, starting with the 18z NAM on Monday and continuing throughout the event.

Seeing ice storm warnings go up for the KC and Joplin areas...and it's possible those could be expanded south and west later. HRRR, RAP & ECMWF all prog significant freezing rain event (>.2") in C & E KS into NW MO tonight. Meanwhile, storms going up south of the stationary boundary in C OK.

The storm system won't be as deep as it moves through my part of the world...in fact, it's likely to be an open wave. The upshot of that is not as much cold air on the backside. Temp guidance for Sunday has warmed 20-25 degrees since Tuesday.

Here's a look at 925 mb winds based off the GFS for Saturday morning at 6 am. The red indicates winds at 50-55 kts about 2000 feet off the surface. If this verifies, then we may very well have blizzard conditions across C & E KS into parts of West Missouri.

Agree with this. When you look at the winds that are progged behind the cold front, we could very easily have blizzard conditions over a wide area if this comes to pass. FWIW, the 12z GFS ensembles had a much snowier solution than the operational run.