rockchalk83

18z Euro, for kicks and giggles (KS Centered)

Why do you think that is? Also noticed the RAP doing that, too, bringing widespread 4-8" across KS.

You and me both, man!

18z NAM digs the system in the southwest currently all the way to near Monterrey, MX before turning east. The system behind it is a little deeper (neutral tilt) but also farther south. It has the band the MO/NE OK crowd is keying on, but about 150 miles west over SC KS...develops it in the warm air advection regime as the trof comes out. As JoMo said, it really wraps up on Monday. If that trend continues, look for it to waffle back northwest.

25-30:1, it looks like. I wonder if Euro drags down some very cold air from aloft, which may be the reason for the enhanced SLR's.

From analyzing the GFS & Euro runs, that the GFS had a slightly weaker 500 mb low, while the Euro had a stronger system and was more closed off from landfall through the Ohio Valley. Will have to see if the trend holds true in later model runs or if there's a correction back to stronger.

Right there with you, man. Hoping for a good one.

Suddenly, a little nervous for this Euro run. Gotta admit.

What is the reason for the ensembles & latest op GFS run to trend drier? Is it the system from overnight tonight digging farther south, meaning a subtle shift south in the track, or is it the wave being more open/quicker?

I got the sense from looking at the ICON that it was keying in on the next system for Wed/Thu and created the most snow out of that. The difference that the 06z Euro & GFS have over the other short term models is that they have the trof slightly deeper and not as progressive, thus higher snowfall totals. Not sure whether to buy the Sonic the Hedgehog nature of the system or keep with persistence and go with the slower motion. I do agree with you, JoMo, that with this persistent light snow done with very little lift, has to play into our advantage over the weekend.

Biggest hit in at least a day worth of Euro runs...it has been trending up recently (at least in Kansas), maybe it has an idea finally of what's going on? Stay tuned...: EDIT: This is exclusively the first storm.

The NAM and Euro have been hot garbage during this cold outbreak. Consistently 2-5 degrees too warm at any daypart w/in 72 hours and slow to catch up to the lower temps.

I noticed that, too. Seems squirrely to me. Also not buying the hard stop to the precip shield in E KS and MO. Think we'll see widespread QPF south of I-70 of greater than .4".

If I’m in S KS, if the trend today has not been all the best. A deeper, more south-trending storm system. We’ll have to see how deep tomorrow’s system digs to get a better handle on the weekend system. 8 of the 20 members in the 18z GFS Ensembles have less than 6 inches of accumulation thru 96 hours. On to the 00z suite.

Is the wave deeper on the Euro, or something else forcing it south?

Agreed completely. Wave amplitude is my biggest concern right now. Thankfully, this should start getting better sampled later today and tonight.

Looks like another big GFS run inbound....

From reading AFD's this afternoon (believe Tulsa), NBM does not, since it's just loaded in from WPC.

With SLR's likely to be in the 25-30:1 range, it will be much easier to get white out conditions than we normally would. If the GFS is correct, such conditions are a lock for W KS, OK and parts of N TX.

Found it on WxBell....enjoy!

Can't wait for the Kuchera clown map.

We’ve had light snow all week down here. So, we’re saturated and there has been just enough lift to make it happen. That changes this weekend.

One thing to keep in mind, the snow will be falling into brutally cold temps (near zero and below). Here's a look at Monday morning wind chills, with a north wind at 10-15 mph. Wind chills like these will have a huge impact on people outdoors and cattle.

Indeed. Good group of fellow weather nerds here. Here’s hoping the next week is good for everyone.

The Canadian model appears to be a huge wet blanket for everyone the next few days. But, it does have 6-10 inches in the Texas Hill Country (skeptical).