rockchalk83

The GFS does not handle the cold air well on the 12z run...NAM seems to handle it the best. The GFS initialized (12z) with 59 degrees in Wichita, when in reality it was 63 degrees. At 15z, the GFS had it at 37 degrees, when in reality it was 34. By 18z, 30 mins from now, the GFS predicts a temperature of 44 degrees. Wichita is currently at 31. The 12z NAM initialized much better. At 12z, it initialized with 61 degrees. At 15z, it had 32. It is predicting an 18z temp of 32 degrees for the top of the hour. Probably best to follow short range meso models for tracking the cold front and temps. As for precip, it would appear the NAM has been most consistent in that area regarding big ZR totals, but there are questions remaining on how shallow the cold air will be and if the precip falls heavy enough that it doesn't accumulate and warms the column from the top-down.

Went with a persistence forecast from the year before, going with 1400-1450 total, though this is likely a high-end forecast. First high risk day on March 27 in Dixie Alley. With respect to the discussion about the Plains chase season; Amarillo has not had precip in 70+ days, Dodge City has not measured precip since early October, and Wichita is headed for it's second driest December on record (.03"). We are going to need some moisture-loaded systems to start coming around out here in order to have an appreciable season. To me, the coming severe weather season feels like it will be an I-35 and east year, though there may be one or two opportunities to get a solid event west of there. My main concern is for another significant fire season.

Thanks Bill for the very insightful answer. I am hoping to work in the NWS one day and am becoming increasingly concerned about the crush of candidates for met jobs in all facets of the industry.

This is a question for the NWS mets who read this....do you foresee a time soon when NWS would be hiring with the amount of the 1990's, or do you see a time when the NWS would downsize offices?