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Stash

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    Ballston Lake, NY

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  1. We stayed mostly snow for this, so it certainly overperformed my expectations being this far east in NY. Took an average of 6" on the boards, so not too bad considering the track. Snow growth was pretty bad as expected out this way for much of it, or we might have done a little better. Congrats to those in WNY and Ontario, there have been some incredible reports out that way.
  2. Heaviest snow of the storm so far out this way, but probably a solid moderate in intensity overall. No mixing here yet, but the heaviest looks to remain well to the west of here. Those were some fantastic videos out of the Buffalo area.
  3. Steady light snow has begun here in Eastern NY, with a quick coating. Still a very chilly 17 degrees.
  4. There are a few of us here, but this storm, as well as most lake effect events are not typically ours to get too excited about. It depends on the storm. When last December's storm dropped 20-40" from Binghamton to Albany, I am guessing more of us from this area posted about it. Excited to see what happens further west. I'm happy for them too, as they don't get to see too many synoptic storms like this! It's a pretty good group here overall, and even if there are more posters from out west, they won't hold it against you for getting excited about the next coastal that buries ENY.
  5. I can't count the number of times back in the day an off hour NAM run a couple days before a coastal would suck me back into a storm by a rotting a def. band over me, while all other guidance (and by that measure, all training, knowledge, and good sense) had it well south and east of me. Right now, some weenie 100 miles north of Toronto is experiencing the same thing.
  6. When I first moved to the area in the 90s, Alb averaged closer to 67". The last couple of 30 year climate updates have steadily dropped it to around 60 now, while most other northeastern cities have increased their averages. Just a lot of bad luck for them in the 2000s, outside of a few massive storms.
  7. It's not awful. 60" average for that location isn't too bad at all. It takes a strong easterly wind to downslope them during nor'easters, which typically doesn't happen (Dec 92 a rather rate occurrence). It downslopes easiest on a SW wind which isn't concerning during a winter storm. It does just fine on the typical N or NE wind.
  8. Not that it'll make you feel any better, but after Monday parts of Kentucky might have more seasonal snow than me. Certainly if the NAM is right anyway (yeah, I know)
  9. I would think that 700mb low placement on the GFS would be ideal for the SYR area, but it keeps limiting it to the BUF-ROC corridor. This is terrible for here in ENY but we were out of it early. I can't think of too many (any?) storms that evolved like this in mid-January, so from a science perspective its interesting.
  10. That is usually overdone on the models for there. It takes a rather strong easterly fetch to downslope them severely (Dec 92 is the only somewhat recent example of severe downsloping in the city). In terms of climo, the typical areas of shadowing in ENY during nor-easters are in southern Washington County and Northern Rensselaer County. The City of Albany itself, shadows more on a SW wind flow, which is unusual in nor'easters. If this thing does cut west, depending on its orientation, I suppose it could happen. That said, I do buy the lower totals. I don't usually trust big amounts with the SLP tracking to our west. Its usually an initial strong thump, then rather quick dryslotting/sleet/drizzle.
  11. You do see it from time to time Upstate, but usually in Eastern areas out my way, and usually (as you said) only in very strong nor'easters. Outside of Upstate, do you ever see them modeled in narrow lake effect bands in CNY or WNY? Being far enough east from the lakes to only get light amounts of lake effect, that's an area I've admittedly paid less attention to.
  12. It can happen wherever the deformation sets up, but this is a relatively quick mover. Been in ENY more than 20 years now, and have seen at least 6 or 7 storms of over 20", in between all the whiffs, usually to the south and east. That number includes the back to back storms in 02/03, and two more the past two Decembers. I'm glad to see WNY getting in on the fun this time.
  13. Barring future corrections, I doubt I see 6" this far east, but anything over 2" will be my heaviest "storm" this season. So this should be a net gain, even here. I do agree with your max area though, especially towards SYR.
  14. It's very tough to get a forum wide storm, as our forum runs from Buffalo east to the New England border, and up to Quebec. But even here in ENY, that would be a decent front end amount followed by dryslot/changeover depending on the ultimate track.
  15. Same here. It would be nice to get that track over SE Mass to verify instead of well inland over our heads in Eastern NY. It's been a tough start for Upstate (east of Utica). The freezing rain from the other day did turn our 1" pack into a glacier however, so that's not going anywhere anytime soon.
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