LakeEffectKing

The eye on IR is the best it has looked during it's entire history.....worst timing...

Up to 145mph at 7am CST....ugh... 000 WTNT34 KNHC 101145 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 700 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE MICHAEL HEADING TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL IMMINENT... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.0N 86.3W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida * North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Surf City North Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River * Surf City North Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Michael. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 86.3 West. Michael is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north- northeast is expected later this morning, with a turn toward the northeast expected this afternoon or tonight. A motion toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the eye of Michael is expected to move ashore over the Florida Panhandle later today, move northeastward across the southeastern United States tonight and Thursday, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the United States on Friday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible before landfall. After landfall, Michael should weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). A wind gust to 56 mph (91 km/h) was recently reported at Apalachicola Regional Airport. The estimated minimum central pressure based on NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hunter aircraft data is 933 mb (27.55 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Tyndall Air Force Base FL to Aucilla River FL...9-14 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Tyndall Air Force Base FL...6-9 ft Aucilla River FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft WIND: Tropical storm conditions are spreading onshore along the U.S. Gulf Coast within the warning area, with hurricane conditions spreading onshore later this morning within the hurricane warning area. Hurricane conditions will also spread well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia later today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight, and are possible in the watch area by late Thursday and Thursday night. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday... Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England coast...1-3 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Florida Panhandle and the northern Florida Peninsula through this afternoon. This risk will spread into parts of central and southern Georgia and southern South Carolina this afternoon and tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

LOL....you have your answer!! I'd give it about a 15% chance at CAT 5.

Every cane is different, depending on the convective structure. There are many factors that play into ERC's....and sometimes a storm's structure is resilient enough to such factors as to maintain the main eyewall structure for long periods.

Yeah, NHC was too conservative with the strengthening timing during last night's 11 p.m. advisory. The structure of the cane was in place. And there was nothing to stop this from clearing it's eye and going to town.

NHC mentions MH by Monday night.....this will be a major Hurricane by 11am Monday.

The subtropical ridges this summer have had a propensity to be under modeled 5 days out. If this summer trend by the models where to continue, I would think there's a good chance that Florence goes further south than what the NHC is currently projecting.....

WTF?? I rarely come here anymore, and both of you know I'm probably a bit to the right of you both, but agree with you 100%!!..... this is BS!!!

The Tues./Wed. storm really needs to be watched!!! If the energy from the quasi PV can phase/be quicker than current progs, ...watch the [email protected]@k out!!

Agreed. As much as the Tug is perfectly positioned for LES events, the eastern Dacks and Catskills are for the just offshore bombs....It's just that we've had quite of dearth of those type events over the last decade or so. They were seemingly more common in the 70's and early 80's. Gotta think there will be some "unofficial" reports nearing 4' by tomorrow morning for storm totals.....even without a slanted measuring tool.

No ****! Super intense rates out that way for a synoptic event.....3-5"/hr. I'm sure.

One last nudge to the west with the mid-level forcing....absolute sweet moisture pump from our super friendly 850mb bomb! Must be insane around Cobleskill!!!

Impressive totals in ECNY!! 13" here in Liverpool...11.5 OTG.

8.5" in Liverpool. Moderate snow.

And last year's March storm, NAM wasn't far off 36 hours out....