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southbuffalowx

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About southbuffalowx

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    Poughkeepsie, NY

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  1. I'm in Poughkeepsie, so I have my eyes on it. I'm worried about any potential tree damage from the heavy wet snow. Would trees in bloom be more prone to damage than bare trees, similar to a snowstorm in October with leaves still on the trees?
  2. They upped the ice accretion totals for the MHV up to 0.5": * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of a trace to 3 inches and ice accumulations of one tenth to one half of an inch I had no idea they had the latitude to issue a WWA when forecasting up to that much ice. I though the cutoff was 0.25". Given the upgrades that have occurred through the Ohio valley, it seems likely this gets upgraded to ISW once the event begins.
  3. Models have been printing out 0.75-1.25" of ZR liquid across the Ohio valley where ice storm warnings are in place for 0.5"-0.75" of accretion. Using that as a guide to estimate accretion across the mid Hudson valley, it seems like we're on track for a pretty high impact event.
  4. Not including today's temperatures, since they aren't finalized yet, KBUF would need to average 35.8 or warmer for the remainder of December for 2021 to break 2012's record for warmest year. You taking the over or under on that?
  5. For what it's worth, I recall the rgem being spot on for the forecast in Binghamton during the December storm. But it was consistent with that jackpot for 12-24 hours prior. It also did the best job forecasting Buffalo's post Christmas LES storm. It has a pretty good track record.
  6. Apparently the flooding in Montreal is forecast to crest higher than 2017, which means they outflows off Ontario will have to be less than they were around the same time in 2017. Apparently that's causing a (relatively) rapid rise in Ontario's lake level. And interestingly enough lake Erie is at a record high for the month of May right now. Or at least is above the record high average for May, so there could be some discrepancy there. https://www.lre.usace.army.mil/Missions/Great-Lakes-Information/Great-Lakes-Water-Levels/Water-Level-Forecast/Weekly-Great-Lakes-Water-Levels/
  7. The next few days are looking good for me at least in the lower Hudson Valley! The weather has been very boring since I moved here. The 12z Canadian went bonkers on me for next week. I have no idea how this place could handle 3' of snow. I have co-workers leave work as soon as it starts snowing
  8. Not in the area to expect the full blast of the winds, but we do have a high wind warning down here for the night. 60-65 mph they are saying. Seems like some pretty widespread damage reports on the NWS site. I was particularly amused by this one, considering how much every student hates the bookstore
  9. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=cgl&band=GEOCOLOR&length=36 You can really see the frozen lake Erie today. Looks like the southern band should continue pushing north too, and is strengthening. I guess that's why they are leaving the winter storm warnings intact.
  10. GOES 16 Satellite You can see it's become increasingly multi-banded, even as winds shift more to the Southwesterly.
  11. Perhaps, impossible to tell from satellite imagery, but according to this map, the lake is fairly ice covered. I know we found this map to pretty suspect, but there's definitely gotta be a decent ice cover now, regardless of wind or waves. Also maybe more dry air is working in and inhibiting the snow.
  12. If you look at the Cleveland radar and goes satellite, you can see the shifting of the winds to a more southerly component. Should allow a more intense single band to develop. But really who knows lol
  13. Man I swear whatever snow you get I get. Just measured and cleared off my board and I'm up to 8.7" as well. This snow hole definitely blows. I'd be more than happy with a storm total of 12" now.
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