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southbuffalowx

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About southbuffalowx

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KBUF
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Buffalo, NY

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  1. southbuffalowx

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Flipping back and forth between rain and snow in South Buffalo near the lake, even under the heaviest returns. 2 degrees colder and we'd probably have something interesting.
  2. southbuffalowx

    Upstate/Eastern New York

  3. southbuffalowx

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    I'm not sure if you could consider that a true synoptic event. If it wasn't for the lakes, there would not have been much of a storm. Here's the event synopsis from the 2016 winter summary. A deep area of low pressure slowly traveled across southern Quebec over the weekend of the 19th and 20th. This system transported Atlantic moisture over the Eastern Great Lakes that fed abundant moisture into bands of lake effect snow that fell southeast of the Lower Great Lakes on a cold northwest flow. Nearly a foot of snow fell in spots southeast of Lake Erie, while more widespread amounts of a foot to a foot and a half fell from the Genesee Valley to the Northern Finger Lakes region. Across the southern Tug Hill region upwards to two feet of snow fell from this system. Here is the summary for the 2013 synoptic event I just mentioned. A synoptic low brought widespread snow late on the 26th and through Wednesday the 27th. This storm brought several inches of snow, with upwards of a half a foot of snow found across the Genesee Valley and Eastern Lake Ontario region, and near a foot across the hills well south of Buffalo.
  4. southbuffalowx

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    I remember we got like 5-6" around Buffalo just prior to Thanksgiving in 2013 from a synoptic event. Nothing crazy, but I think that qualifies.
  5. southbuffalowx

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    https://buffalonews.com/2018/10/24/buffalos-new-radar-angle-will-help-get-better-weather-data-for-erie-pa/ Be interesting to see this in action this winter
  6. southbuffalowx

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    So did anyone else see this on the GFS-fv3? Absolutely nuts to see that level of cold on a weather model before Halloween. Hopefully we don't see too much cold, because it'll drain the lakes of their warmth so early
  7. southbuffalowx

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    That's interesting. When is that supposed to begin?
  8. southbuffalowx

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    I'm going to be camping in the Adirondacks that weekend, so it's safe to say I'm keeping an eye on that cold shot. Hoping to see some snow on the peaks, but we'll see.
  9. southbuffalowx

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/compare_years/compare_years_e.html Lake Erie's whole volume temperature, 71.8, now tops that of the last 2 year's. If we keep up the warm fall trend, it could make for an interesting November and December
  10. southbuffalowx

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    https://www.lre.usace.army.mil/Missions/Great-Lakes-Information/Great-Lakes-Water-Levels/Water-Level-Forecast/Weekly-Great-Lakes-Water-Levels/ Lake Erie is actually 19 inches above normal. What did you see that made you think it was so far below?
  11. southbuffalowx

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    A little early in the month to tell for sure, but it looks like there is a decent chance this month finishes as a top 5 hottest on record in Buffalo. Maybe even number 1 if we get another good heat wave and no real cooldown. It sucks to work in, but if it is going to be summer, summer weather is what I want, so no real complaints from me. Come September though, and I'm ready for the change.
  12. southbuffalowx

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Very sorry for your loss. I can only imagine how difficult it is to lose someone close so quickly and tragically.
  13. southbuffalowx

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Pretty serious heat wave it looks like next week... GFS predicting 105 heat index next Sunday, h850s up to around 22-24. Does anyone recall the last time we saw it get that hot? Especially in June
  14. southbuffalowx

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Looks like we'll be able to eke out the coldest April since the the official weather station moved to the airport. I don't think it's fair to compare temperatures taken at the airport now to ones taken next to an ice covered lake, so hopefully the weather service acknowledges that. It wouldn't even be a top 10 coldest as it stands, because all of the top 10 coldest April's occurred when the station was located on the waterfront.
  15. southbuffalowx

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    I found this very interesting journal article for Ice to Liquid ratios, and after going through it, and more thoroughly analyzing model output for this event, I'd definitely have to side with the NWS on this. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/WAF-D-15-0118.1 At high precipitation rates (>0.1 in/hr), freezing rain does not accumulate very efficiently, and obviously, when a model is indicating 1"+ of freezing rain, the actual rate that precipitation was falling at had to be fairly high. So that 1" of freezing rain liquid might accumulate 1/2" of ice at best. Throw in that it seems mesoscale modeling is trending north with the storm, and the effect of the strong April sun, and it doesn't pose the high risk for damage I was thinking earlier. But, we'll just have to wait and see.
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