LakeEffectKing

Impressive.....modeled sounding for the BUF area late Sun. night/ early Mon. morning look a bit moist...

Heavy snow in Caz. Nearing an inch.

3.5" in Caz....Most of that within a 2 hr. period... Visibilities were below 1/8 mi. around 4:30ish....

From past experiences, and based on radar trends and verification, I think the axis of heaviest qpf (mostly snow) will be in NY on a line from Hamburg, Ithaca, Hamilton, to just south of Albany......IOW about 20-30 miles north of the current 12z NAM output.

00z NAM vs. verification....note max totals north of Chicago vs NAM and where reports in S. lower Michigan are overperforming vs. NAM.

It's subtle, but the axis of heavier snow was modeled yesterday by the NAM to be a bit south of verification...

3.5" overnight in Cazenovia.....came all in about 5 hours.

Super impressive Tornado signature (earlier) on radar near GA/SC coastal border:

2.5" here in Cazenovia....moderate snow, increasing in intensity.

I'm guessing/estimating that (now that testing is "better") we can look at the data and make some rudimentary (fitting into commonsense) deductions that the daily death counts in a particular area, are going to lag behind the "confirmed" cases by 10 days or so */- a few days..... ….thus, it's nice to see Italy's daily confirmed cases on a nice, prolonged downward slope.

I read another article that Drs. were perplexed because they were getting really low oxygen levels in the blood of patients, yet CT scans/x-rays of lungs weren't "that bad".....it sounds like (from my modest biology knowledge) that this virus may indeed be more of an inhibitor of the normal uptake of oxygen at the red blood cell membrane level, and not so much a "respiratory" (aka...SARS) disorder. Thus, blood transfusions/100 oxygen hoods, and potentially hydroxychloroquine/Zithro treatments may be a better option than vents.....just thinking out loud as a layperson...

Interesting read... http://web.archive.org/web/20200405061401/https://medium.com/@agaiziunas/covid-19-had-us-all-fooled-but-now-we-might-have-finally-found-its-secret-91182386efcb

I wonder how many of those 2200 tests are people who reside in Onondaga Co. I know many outside the Co. Were being sent to the drivethrough testing site in Syr....

Interesting (long) read....it's all about getting the mean number of infections by someone infected below 1. https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

Snowing at about 2" per hour in Caz.

73 Degrees here and Cazenovia with partly Sunny skies. Semi not looking for to 1 to 3" of snow on Monday, lol!!

Yeah...would be nice to end winter on a bang!

Check out the New England forum. There is your max pain!!!

Many of the mesoscale models last night indicated it would lift north of Watertown for a bit ahead of the shortwave.... and a couple of them didn't have the band sweet completely through. They have it reoriented over Southern Oswego Onondaga and into Madison counties

2.5" here in Cazenovia since the flip at 5:45am....moderate snow, back edge about 1 to 1.5 hours away.

Maybe... but ....you can mark my words if you want, but I think you're in prime location. As stated earlier, I think most of the models are a bit too far north with the main band. There's something about a multi late band connection that seems to drive it further south over Lake Ontario verses what the models depict.

The tremendous in flow into the bands warrants the blizzard warnings... it looks like they will be shifting around bit... so even if you're not completely inside the band, blizzard conditions will exist. I think it's quite warranted.

With regards to the LE band off Ontario, it is my experience that if we do in fact have upper lakes connection, many models tend to place the band a bit too far north. Though trivial to some, I'd slide the heaviest amounts south by 10-15 miles to include central/N. Oswego Co. (and the northern half of Oneida Co.) The Tug hill area of S. Lewis Co. will, of course, be hit hard as well, as the band broadens inland/upslope. Areas like Parish, Mexico, Camden, IMO, will/should be included in the 2-3' contour. Could see some thundersnow as we progress into Thurs. night/Friday morning. Wolfie/swva will get clobbered.

I think this is going to be "your" event Wolfie…..finally!!!