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Everything posted by LakeEffectKing

  1. Not're directly under the convergence zone/line....the prime spot!!!
  2. I posted this a quite awhile a visual aid:
  3. Many times, when a band is moving (in this case it drifted south), the heaviest snows will be located on the edge, where the convergence zone is, opposite of motion with respect to the radar depiction. (In this case, on the northern 1/3 of the radar returns) sometimes, you will see high reflectivities over your head (800-1200 feet) but the flakes at that level are being drawn into the convergence zone (in this case, just to your north!!)
  4. Thundersnow reported by Channel 9 Syracuse, around Adams Center, around 5:15am. Barnes Corners must be getting walloped with 3-5" rates, I'd presume.... The band will settle a few more miles south, then shift north after 12-14z.....then slowly back south (a bit further into central Oswego Co. by late evening/ overnight.)...and then contract back to the lake by Friday morning. I think 3+ feet, 5 miles either side of a line from Adams Center to Montague, is very likely.
  5. In Liverpool (Bayberry development): 11am - 6pm Saturday: 2.7" 6pm - Midnight: 3.5" Midnight - 6am: 5.5" Storm Total So Far: 11.7"
  6. Well, to our south is nice, but the real McCoy with this system will be the deep moisture in place, as the lower and upper jet dynamics team up for some sick ascent.
  7. Looks like we have our ramping up of deep ascent. Returns all over NE Ohio/PA/NY are rapidly filling/increasing.... ….Our atmospheric "chimney" is now in full working order!
  8. Well, the visibilities were pretty low at times....I'd wager that the band may have approached 2"/hr. at times....I could see 14" or so....but whatever....
  9. The UL jet to our W and NW will get cranking shortly. (Up to 210 mph!!! (180 kts.)) Returns will explode, especially after 10pm...
  10. Yeah, I've had various flake sizes over the last 3 hours. Typical during the overrunning of an approaching storm. All this snow from earlier, until about 7 or 8 o'clock is just gravy. The dynamic fun starts in 3-5 hours!!!!
  11. be 20 something again...… Just under 2" in L'pool. Snow in various intensities and flake size.
  12. Especially with this storm. Much like LES, the ratios will be relatively settling will be amplified vs. normal 8-10:1 ratios.....
  13. Well, I think we recognize and want to hide our "nerdiness" of our "over-the-top-obsession" wrt some of us lift, lol!!
  14. Sure...but go big or go home, lol.... 51 never felt better!!!
  15. Getting "jacked" for the storm (then I'll recommense Svedka, lol!!)
  16. Storms that start "earlier" than modeled/expected, almost always "overperform".....models are playing catch-up to an earlier than expected phase.... As long as the ratios are not reduced much by a warmer lower level profile, the ramping up of the qpf (slower/closer/deeper storm) by the models, may continue through verification. Roc/Syr corridor, along with the hills SE of SYR will be tickling 2'.... Enjoy all!!! Cheers!!! (Mango Svedka and seltzer) #onedrinkper3inches
  17. I believe so. As mentioned in an earlier post, phasing of the two streams is occurring a few hours earlier.....thus the slp will not be as progressive.
  18. Ty (CNY-WXFREAK) must have system overload.....Wolfie has only posted Euro Kutchra about 1000 times since this storm potential began, lol!!!!
  19. The game is at 2pm....everyone will be fine....a little snowy drive home??? Sure...don't go off the deep end here Ty, lol!!!! Edit: I see you were already informed!!
  20. Yeah, LES behind this system will suck....short fetch, dry air, and shitty snow-growth....our storm is OVER, from a snowfall standpoint, from 21z Sunday on....windy with blowing and drifting???....Sure.
  21. I assume some downsloping, along with distance from the storm and some models indicating some banding...
  22. Not much....Just super busy personal life!!! Yes, nice event....not quite a blockbuster.....and LOL, you referring this to a "monster".....the baroclinicity, and some impressive jet dynamics will be the driver of our impressive rates Sat. night...but from a SLP aspect....a 995mb SLP is not a monster "LOL"!!!!
  23. So all looks good for a widespread 10-20" with lollies….main concern will be the speed of the super dry air ripping through Sun. afternoon....I could see this being under-modeled, and shut off the significant qpf sooner than modeled. If so, go with lower end of the spread. Niagara frontier, as well as Sandy Creek (Oswego Co.) north, will see less than 10". My call for major cities: Buffalo: 11" Rochester: 16" Syracuse: 18" Binghamton: 17"
  24. If the model consensus holds serve, then I'm in agreement with Delta. And I'd venture that some portion of our region has a 20-30 percent chance of receiving the holy grail of a Blizzard Watch.
  25. Hey Delta! Love the analog you posted earlier....and yeah....we need to watch for mixing issues....would be a close call if the models, at this point, are off by 30-50 miles in the track. This may be the case where we DON'T want the southern stream to amp up anymore. There will be plenty of theta-e out in front....(18 hrs. of mod. snow beats front end>6 hrs. mixing>backend deformation...) Impressed with the baroclinicity as modeled with this upcoming event (and even moreso, as depicted by some models down the road for potential storms)….load the moisture, lift it like a mofo, then let the mid level centers do their magic!!!