LakeEffectKing

BTW, moderate snow here in Cazenovia. Flake size is ok.

Relative to lead times, all the models did fairly well.. They all wavered a bit but at times showed the general idea. Over the last day and a 1/2 the euro seemed pretty steady. But then again, verification hasn't happened yet, lol!

Just flipped in Caz.

Really like both forecasts. Maybe move the transition zone se by 20 miles...

Cold conveyor belt.

You can really see the moistening CCB from the northeast on a rapid loop of the Rgem prog. Look at the bands of snow coming in from the northeast along the St. Lawrence River Valley and New England, as the system as a whole moves ENE'ward.

The 3K Nam from 00z 02/02 did really well with the first wave out west. Notice that verification came generally somewhere between straight 10:1 ratios, and the Kuchera method/algorithm.

And I like your call for up your way...6-10 is probably a real good bet.

Yeah Brian...first part of the storm for CNY through 2pm will be a nothing burger... I've been watching the trends over the last couple days with regard to Omega and DGZ, and it has trended better for this evening. Liking my spot in Caz...13" is my call for here.

Me Too! But I seem to always wake up automatically around 1AM during an impending storm.

Embrace this event... It may very well be the only event in a long long time that our whole upstate, cny, wny, eny, (and hopefully our bgm and southeastern members) get a uniform 8-14" event...

F that!!! I'm staying up for more model erotica!!!!

Because it's the 1st warm day where it wouldn't turn your car into an ice shell... And any time you can get extra salt off your car... the better.

Let's check to see if the snowfall amounts are overperforming with SLR's in Indiana and Ohio later....should give us an idea of ratios..

I think ratios are going to be a little bit better than 10 to 1... The omega in the DGZ look a little bit better....not great, but better than previous cycles.

Nam shows that "last wave" that BGM discussed. Something to watch if it trends stronger, could bump totals up especially CNY and southeastward...

Yeah, the 12z Euro is really the first to get the entire sub forum group, including the east and southeast folks....

Nice bump in totals generally..

A few thoughts... This will be historic....for places like St. Louis, mid south (AR, KY, etc.) for snow and significant ice. For here, this will be a long duration event, where the band of snowfall sets up.. Snowfall rates will be light to moderate throughout the duration.....dendrite size, ATT, look average to below average (as several posters have mentioned, omega within the DGZ, is not great, as modeled now). This should not be an extremely high impact event, relative to travel....8-14" over 24-36 hrs. is almost pedestrian around here...or it used to be, lol! And of course, there will be a sharp cut off (snowfall wise) somewhere between CNY and the Catskills. Again, for where the snow zone sets up, it will be a wonderful winter scene for a solid day or so! Last thought....watch out for next Sunday-Monday....

Uh oh...

This far out...prbably a bit hard to assess the potential, without seeing how deep the cold air is as the front slides through....but there certainly is an elevated risk, based on some model depictions.

Someone in our subforum is going to get the goods.....and a chance that all can score big..let's stay together family...

Through the entire event...

@TugHillMattDid you say you were moving??? When??? I'll help you pack....

Been pursuing the NE subforum.....it seems that they encourage the use of the term "death band"... ...so juvenile....