The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

you gotta take his socks off and stick his bare feet in the snow, that'll make a stronger person later in his adult life, they say that in my Albanian culture lol

like dua lipa and bebe rexha huh? a lot of pizza joints are owned by albanians over here...

[WeatherFox]

The light rain, light snow flipped at 1:47 PM this afternoon to all light snow at JFK International Airport

[Nibor]

Down to 1000

[BoulderWX]

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Uptons new warning increased amounts to 17-24” out here…

Enjoy man - going to be epic out there! 

[SnoSki14]

7 minutes ago, Snowguy66 said:

The national weather service just lowered my totals here in Somerset County to 13 - 21 inches.  Still a really big storm.  Just kind of reminds me of the storm in January where they jumped up the numbers real high going to come down.  But if I recall that storm did over performing in areas.

I'm from the county and the 18-25 was way too high. Much more reasonable now

[IYC77]

Snow starting to stick to the ground over here.

Wish people would say where they are updating from rather than writing "here"

Sent from my SM-S926U1 using Tapatalk

[Prue11]

What’s the deal with that dry area on the south fork ?

[MJO812]

Nick Gregory is going 18-24 inches for NYC and 24 plus for CNJ

 

 

 

Just watched Craig Allen on TV. He states that the low is forming with alot of lighting and dont be shocked to see thundersnow tonight in NJ and NYC/ LI. Hes going 12-18 with 18-24 inches SE of NYC.

[SACRUS]

2 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Down to 1000

[cleetussnow]

26 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Another intelligent idiot that thinks they know better than the NWS. Where did you get your BS in Atmospheric Science?

Snowman19 gave it to him

[MJO812]

Hey Snowman19, enjoy the blizzard.

 

[Mail Man]

Just now, IYC77 said:

Wish people would say where they are updating from rather than writing "here"

Sent from my SM-S926U1 using Tapatalk
 

I have my location posted up. but Middletown nj 

[Jt17]

HRRR keeps ticking up...


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[WeatherGeek2025]

7 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

like dua lipa and bebe rexha huh? a lot of pizza joints are owned by albanians over here...

you in Staten Island? is that even considered NYC? lol I have you guys as the bullseye on my snowmap 

[SnoSki14]

What amounts did the RAP show?

[WestBabylonWeather]

9 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Uptons new warning increased amounts to 17-24” out here…

The are looking at the hrrr maybe. 

[weatherpruf]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

you in Staten Island? is that even considered NYC? lol I have you guys as the bullseye on my snowmap 

just across from staten island. 

[L.I.Pete]

Snowing lightly now in Port Jeff Station after a little burst earlier. My few exposed grassy areas and shrubs now re-covered. 33.

[EasternLI]

HRRR crusher at 18z. And still going strong at this hour.

 

[Uniblab]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

you in Staten Island? is that even considered NYC? lol I have you guys as the bullseye on my snowmap 

That's where I am! 

[SACRUS]

From our artificial summary with inputs:

 

HRRR — primary mesoscale driver

• Best for:

  • Snow band location

  • Snowfall rates (1–3"/hr)

  • Band evolution / pivoting

• Useful range: 0–12 h (up to ~18 h trend)

• How to use: latest 1–3 runs only

• ⚠️ Do not trust storm-total maps

---

HREF — confidence & persistence

• Best for:

  • Probability a band persists

  • ≥1"/hr rate probabilities

  • Confidence in HRRR signal

• Useful range: 0–36 h

• How to use: confirms whether HRRR is real or noisy

---

RAP — temperatures & p-type

• Best for:

  • Surface temps

  • Rain/snow/sleet/ZR line

  • CAD holding vs breaking

• Useful range: 0–12 h

• How to use: hourly temp & wet-bulb trends

• ❌ Not for QPF or totals

---

 NAM 3 km — vertical structure

• Best for:

  • Warm nose depth

  • Sleet vs freezing rain

  • Soundings & cross-sections

• Useful range: 6–36 h

• How to use: diagnose why p-type is changing

• ⚠️ QPF often too wet

[WeatherFox]

 

Unofficially, 1 inch at Central Park.

[BoulderWX]

Hoping HRRR and RAP are right but even there high ends seem to be lower than NWS forecasts. 
 

moderate snow - 31 - starting to stick on all surfaces 

[MJO812]

HRRR is insane for coastal areas. This is tomorrow morning with hours to go. 

Look at the eye off the coast.

[JustinRP37]

Starting to snow here. Still have a good 3-6 on the ground still from January. This is getting exciting! 

[jdt]

?  Heavier impulses moving through are not real banding, such as in deformation zones, occlusions, warm fronts off the ocean.  What is depicted are normal waves moving along.  These typically do not make the difference between 12" and 20".  Slight variations perhaps.  Banding, in my opinion is used too broadly.  

Technically you are correct and this modestly knowledgeable amateur won’t argue semantics over it. The reality, though, is the strength, placement and evolution of such features, whatever they are called, heavily dictate how much falls where. All this, of course, driven by surface & mid level tracks / dynamics which is all driven by upper level dynamics. Regardless of final outcome it’s fun tracking. Enjoy!


.

[weathermedic]

Steady light snow here in Sheepshead Bay. Temp 33

[kat5hurricane]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nick Gregory is going 18-24 inches for NYC and 24 plus for CNJ

 

 

 

Just watched Craig Allen on TV. He states that the low is forming with alot of lighting and dont be shocked to see thundersnow tonight in NJ and NYC/ LI. Hes going 12-18 with 18-24 inches SE of NYC.

Pretty much the only two TV meterologists I'd listen to, along with Lee Goldberg but the former two mainly.

[Nibor]

For north and west folks that deform band on the latest HRRR is also modeled on the RAP and FV3. No guarantee but I think that's the back edge of the big totals.

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nick Gregory is going 18-24 inches for NYC and 24 plus for CNJ

 

 

 

Just watched Craig Allen on TV. He states that the low is forming with alot of lighting and dont be shocked to see thundersnow tonight in NJ and NYC/ LI. Hes going 12-18 with 18-24 inches SE of NYC.

Craig Allen's forecast aligns with TWC.