hudsonvalley21

Sorry to be a wize arse, but did the driver of the SUV get swept away? Just had to too

There's a line in Pa between Scranton and the NJ/NY state line moving along I-84 that might kick up a bit more before entering the Lower Hudson valley north of NYC

Sun peeking thru up this way. Appears warm front made it thru here. 75/73

SBCAPE

You might not need much sun to get severe with numbers like that.

Still in a low cloud deck up this way. 73/72 PWAT is at 1.6 so heavy downpours are possible. As far as severe goes, defiantly now-casting. My thinking is NYC and points south.

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019 Northern PA/NJ/NY into New England... Persistent cloud cover is limiting heating/destabilization from northern PA/NJ northward into New England. Despite the limited thermodynamic environment, model guidance and recent radar trends suggest the potential for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show very favorable vertical shear profiles for organized or even rotating storms capable of gusty winds and perhaps a tornado. However, given the weak CAPE profiles, it appears that the severe risk in this area will remain widely spaced and primarily marginal. Nevertheless, have extended the SLGT risk area northward into central NY ahead of ongoing strong activity.

HRDPS is showing your thoughts also.

I picked up my Davis 6250 vantage vue in the fall of 2015. I shouldn't talk now but haven't had any issues. Just changed the batteries every fall. I see the price now is 299 on Amazon. It's actually a few bucks cheaper than when I bought it.

Agree with your thoughts. We would defiantly increase our severe chances if we clear out early.The HRRR maps a few posts back from NycStormChaser are showing a non-linear descrete Storm cell look. Well definitely have to keep a close eye on things tomorrow.

1.47 is the total here. Forecast is sunny and 80 for Sunday down in flushing. Hope it holds true for you

1.24 in the bucket so far today.

Up to 1.24 in the bucket so far today.

0.36 in the Davis so far today up this way. Nice AFD from Upton, a section below; Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1010 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Warm front in close proximity to the NYC metro and this will be key this afternoon as a frontal wave approaches from the west. The 06Z NAM NEST and latest HRRR continue to keep showers across the area for much of the day with the potential for strong/severe convection around the NYC/NJ metro in the 18Z to 22Z timeframe. Conditions are favorable at the very least for some heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding (see below). Weak low pressure over central PA rides along the stationary front located near the NYC metro, and passes over the area this afternoon into this evening. Synoptic scale setup supports moderate to heavy rain, with H8 frontogenesis and weak elevated instability in the cool sector north of the front across the interior especially from the lower Hudson Valley into SW CT, an upper level jet streak over southern CT possibly enhancing lift, also via sfc-based instability in the warm sector or very close to NE NJ and the NYC metro area. With WSW mid level flow 35-40 kt a few storms from NYC metro south/west could produce strong to locally severe wind gusts, as well as produce locally heavy rain as PW increases to near 2 inches. Some CAM`s and also the ECMWF are forecasting bands of heavy rain to the tune of 2-4 inches across the interior. Previous waves of low pressure have not lived up to model QPF expectations, so think this is overdone and have played the forecast more conservatively than otherwise might be the case for the time being. Given the more favorable larger scale factors coming into play this afternoon, this situation might be different, and it is still possible that a short fused flash flood watch may become necessary for parts of the area for this afternoon/evening.

Yup. We'll have to keep an eye out for descrete cells just in front of linear activity.