hudsonvalley21

2.03” since midnight for the day so far. Light rain currently and 50 degrees.

Special Weather Statement National Weather Service New York NY 305 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025 NYZ067-081930- Orange NY- 305 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN ORANGE COUNTY THROUGH 330 PM EDT... At 303 PM EDT, trained weather spotters reported a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail near New Windsor, or near Newburgh, moving northeast at 10 mph. HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail. SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is possible. Locations impacted include... Newburgh, New Windsor, Gardnertown, Orange Lake, Washingtonville, Firthcliffe, Vails Gate, Balmville, and Cornwall On Hudson.

Special Weather Statement National Weather Service New York NY 305 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025 NYZ067-081930- Orange NY- 305 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN ORANGE COUNTY THROUGH 330 PM EDT... At 303 PM EDT, trained weather spotters reported a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail near New Windsor, or near Newburgh, moving northeast at 10 mph. HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail. SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is possible. Locations impacted include... Newburgh, New Windsor, Gardnertown, Orange Lake, Washingtonville, Firthcliffe, Vails Gate, Balmville, and Cornwall On Hudson.

And at a nice pace to soak in. Upton’s QPF map is showing another.75 into tomorrow morning.

0.46” in the Davis with this round. Some models are showing some activity around 10pm tonight. We’ll see.

Cluster just came thru. It developed nicely into a line. A few gusts of around 30 with heavy downpours. A few rumbles of thunder and lightning.

May’s Forecast, DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +0.8 + 0.6 +0.3 +1.4 +1.7 +1.2 +1.8 +2.1 -0.2

1.31” in the Davis for the total today. Both lines of thundershowers dropped about a half an inch in 15 minutes each this afternoon.

Great to see. Trees and vegetation are starting up and the moisture is well needed.

April DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.2 1.7 1.5 0.2 1.9 1.8 0.9 1.8 0.1

Up to 1.16” with drizzle currently and 46 degrees.

1.09” here.

Upton’s is thinking that we’re going to get some decent rain according to their AFD. Radar looks just ok currently we’ll see in a couple of hours. A section of their AFD, NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... A line of convection across eastern PA and upstate NY along a prefrontal trough will continue to weaken as it pushes east towards the area this evening. Strong onshore flow will push stable maritime air inland as the this convection pushes east. The latest SPC mesoanalysis indicated no surface instability over the area, which also gives confidence the line will continue to weaken as it approaches. The prefrontal trough and associated cold front will move into the region tonight. There will still be showers and embedded elevated thunder with the aforementioned weakening convective line, but it appears a resurgence of showers will occur from southwest to northeast across the area with strengthening low level jet in combination with increasing upper divergence from a an approaching jet streak to our northwest. This will likely induce a weak wave of the frontal boundary, which will increase convergence and lift overnight. While shower activity will initially be limited early this evening, moderate to locally heavy showers are expected to increase in coverage late this evening into the overnight hours. PWATs range anywhere from 1.3-1.6 inches supporting potential for some locally heavy downpours. Still think a few rumbles of thunder are possible, but elevated instability is minimal overnight. HRRR has indicated a marginal MUCAPE even across eastern Long Island overnight, so will mention slight chance of thunder there as well. The heaviest rain may shift east of the NYC metro by early Monday morning with a steadier stratiform rain from the city on NW. Peak rainfall rates from 0.25 to 0.50 inches per hour seem most likely although a few downpours could briefly be a bit higher up to 1 inch per hour. The main concern tonight into early Monday will be from minor urban and poor drainage flooding. Eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut stand the best shot at seeing a longer duration of heavier downpours, so cannot completely rule out a localized instance of flash flooding here. Rainfall totals around 1.5" to 2.50" are forecast, highest across eastern portions of the area. Locally higher amounts cannot be ruled out where the heaviest downpours occur.

Absolutely . That’s a long lay line, friction loss is a definite.

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