Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[SnoSki14]

Is the public really aware of this. I know they generally expect snow just from talking to people but I feel the hype has been far less than the Jan storm. 

[Rjay]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Is the public really aware of this. I know they generally expect snow just from talking to people but I feel the hype has been far less than the Jan storm. 

Bc that storm was consistently shown on models for many days leading up to the event.  In this case you have every model trending towards the shitty gfs that no one trusted. 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Is the public really aware of this. I know they generally expect snow just from talking to people but I feel the hype has been far less than the Jan storm. 

not enough time for it to propagate. this is one of the most insane things i have ever seen, the EPS looked like this 30 hours ago

[coastalplainsnowman]

Regardless of what happens, the USA v Canada gold medal game on Sunday at 8:15AM will be a nice distraction i- a fun diversion f things are still looking good.

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Is the public really aware of this. I know they generally expect snow just from talking to people but I feel the hype has been far less than the Jan storm. 

I don't think many are aware yet - you will be able to tell if you visit your local grocery store tomorrow ...........

[SnowGoose69]

I was half joking when I said the GFS was due to score one of these hits, looks like it finally did but to a degree it was right for the wrong reason.  This is a rare period historically to see big snow events here and you can see that on the daily snow records on 2/22 and 2/23, mostly all 6 inches or lower.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Nibor said:

King Goofus

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Is the public really aware of this. I know they generally expect snow just from talking to people but I feel the hype has been far less than the Jan storm. 

I was just watching the news and they are only going with a few inches for the city. 

[Nibor]

[EasternLI]

Just wild trends all day long on all guidance.

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The best part is the models seem to be still trending towards the GFS.

Yep absolutely, EPS and AIFS are a nuke. Really liking where things stand for a change. Pretty clear to me there’ll be 20”+ for at least some of us. 3-4” per hour for several hours and the storm isn’t in a rush to haul out of here. So glad the curse is finally ending. 

[Nibor]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Is the public really aware of this. I know they generally expect snow just from talking to people but I feel the hype has been far less than the Jan storm. 

No, some of our best storms are the "surprise" ones.

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

King Goofus

I was just watching the news and they are only going with a few inches for the city. 

some forecasting folks are going to have egg on their faces if they don't fully evaluate this situation tomorrow

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Yep absolutely, EPS and AIFS are a nuke. Really liking where things stand for a change. Pretty clear to me there’ll be 20”+ for at least some of us. 3-4” per hour for several hours and the storm isn’t in a rush to haul out of here. So glad the curse is finally ending. 

you are probably getting a blizzard warning

[Rjay]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

you are probably getting a blizzard warning

He's 100% getting one even if this slips east a little. 

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, Rjay said:

He's 100% getting one even if this slips east a little. 

i'm so hype man. we needed this

[TriPol]

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Is the public really aware of this. I know they generally expect snow just from talking to people but I feel the hype has been far less than the Jan storm. 

Once Hochul and Sherrill declare a state of emergency by this time tomorrow, people will become aware of it.

[SACRUS]

4 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

2/20 18z Summary

 

Total QPF NYC 2/22 - 2/23-24

 

SFRE F: 1.0
NAM: 2.3
RGEM: 0.6
ICON: 1.2
GFS AI AIGFS:  1.5
GFS: 2.2
GEFS: 1.7
EURO AI AIFS:  1.3
EURO : 0.8

 

Updated 1.4 avg (mean)

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Is the public really aware of this. I know they generally expect snow just from talking to people but I feel the hype has been far less than the Jan storm. 

Yeah the stores were crazy 3 days out with that one. Today was quiet. Meaning tomorrow will be especially nuts

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i'm so hype man. we needed this

Haha yea.  And to play devils advocate, this could slip a little east but we're arent going to lose the storm completely. Most of us are a lock for 6"+.  I think this is a HECS.  The mid-level low positions are perfect. 

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

you are probably getting a blizzard warning

The sustained winds on the 18Z GFS MOS are crazy.  Its not often you see 30s on there.  MOS guidance tends to run low on sustained winds often times in deep lows.

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Once Hochul and Sherrill declare a state of emergency by this time tomorrow, people will become aware of it.

They declare States of Emergency for storms less severe then this one is forecasted to be I think it has something to do with receiving federal money if they need it

[[email protected]]

5 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Just wild trends all day long on all guidance.

This is 2010 Boxing Day redux!

[nycsnow]

[MJO812]

Just now, nycsnow said:

Tucked

[SACRUS]

 

For reference round timeframes for model runs for those new to this:

00z / 12Z

SREF: 7:30 PM / AM
NAM: 8:50 PM / AM
RGEM:  10:00 PM / AM
ICON: 9:50 PM / AM
GFS: 10:30 PM / AM
GFS AI AIGFS: 10:30 PM / AM
GGEM: 10:40 PM / AM
UKMET: 11:05PM / AM
GEFS: 11:30 PM / AM
Euro: 12:50AM / PM
Euro AI AIFS: 1:00 AM / PM

Shorter range models now coming into play within 84 - 60 - 48

RRFS
H NAM 3k
HRR
RPM
HRW
HRDPA (Canadian)

[nycsnow]

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

This is 2010 Boxing Day redux!

Boxing day felt different for me bc the cave was even closer in.  And the storm happening around Christmas just added to the magical feeling.  

 

Edit: also being younger helped too

[[email protected]]

Just now, Rjay said:

Boxing day felt different for me bc the cave was even closer in.  And the storm happening around Christmas just added to the magical feeling.  

Most dramatic favorable late shift since then?

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Boxing day felt different for me bc the cave was even closer in.  And the storm happening around Christmas just added to the magical feeling.  

 

Edit: also being younger helped too

i think that this is arguably even more impressive. this is 15 years later and the only model that really showed this being a legit hit inside of 5 days was the GFS and every model bowed down to it. literally like Tony wrote a script

[NEG NAO]

Just now, Rjay said:

Boxing day felt different for me bc the cave was even closer in.  And the storm happening around Christmas just added to the magical feeling.  

and you can take a stroll down memory lane if you go back to the beginning of this forum here - all documented