Picard

We got a little light show and a few rumbles and drops from that area in western NJ. Looks to be fading, but made for a neat sky right after sunset.

You can blindly forecast that without any models, and 75-80% of the time you'd be right. That's been a multi-year trend, and I can easily see most of our frontal passages and pop up thunderstorm forecasts resulting in exactly that for this season too. It's probably the reason drought conditions are generally worse as you get closer to the east coast (although for now not right on the coast).

Did you guys see the 28/81 spread between the low and high out in Walpack?! There were two other 50 degree spreads on the Rutgers network. This is right there with locations out west that make wild swings.

Some fun temperature inversions on the map this morning. 20+ degree temperature differences over just a few miles and few hundred feet of elevation.

What model do you think performed best? It looked to me like the NAM picked up on the sharp cutoffs to the west and the 10" I have here are maybe a bit over what it's last couple of runs showed for western NJ, but definitely within the range.

Try resizing them on your phone before uploading. Android makes it pretty simple to do, and you can usually get them under 1 MB.

Measured 9 3/4" at 7:45 AM, but it's a little hard to measure. I had 4 3/4" at about 10:00 pm last night, so only received about 5" overnight. Currently lighter snow and 27. Congrats to the folks out east and down the shore!

2 3/4" new accumulation. 1" per hour rates.

there is reason to be a bit skeptical of the big totals west of 287. Especially because a couple models seem to have ticked east with the heaviest earlier today, and unless we get big time banding out here, 20+ is just a dream. I'm still thinking high single digit/low double digit totals are within reach.

Light to Moderate snows in Sparta, starting to stick everywhere.

Western parts of the area aren't far from of a 4-6 inch snowstorm if she were to wobble a bit further east, so it's really a nowcasting, watch the radar time. I am confident some areas will get 18+ and really jackpot, and it will be interesting to overlay actuals with the models when all is said and done.

Watching the models, +/- 30 miles will make a big difference up here between less than 6" or more than 12". Personally, I'm routing for 6-12" and watching the costal areas get dumped on. I'm actually OK with not getting 18-20" up this way, but we'll see. Not looking to jinx anything, just giving my personal take.

School has called a delay for tomorrow morning due to forecasted ice. Where is the precip coming from? It's mostly dissapating as it heads east.

0.6"

If the moisture column saturates in time to reach the ground before it's halfway over, and IF rates get heavy enough. Two big IFs, especially northern areas.