2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, MountainGeek said:

What are the primary factors that influence your thinking for the "target" elevation in a given storm? Eg, sometimes you give 600', others 800 or 1000 or 1,500 etc. 

We have tools here at the office where I can look at snow levels of every model and I use them as tools for creating the forecast. Just one of the benefits of being on the desk! AWIPS and our tool integration are very sophisticated. I also look at soundings and check other variables to mentally calculate! 

[LeesburgWx]

7 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

 

Beautiful

[SnowtoRain]

19 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Forecast here currently has 8-14". I Wont be home to see it happen. Kinda sucks. I will head to Easton tomorrow afternoon and stay at the school tomorrow night.

Could be quite the gradient from western Talbot to your house. Mt Holly goalposts are still real wide 1 to 16" range...

[EastCoast NPZ]

9 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

You need to look at the forecast overnight.  Tomorrow daytime is not relevant unless you are a true GFS believer.

The Sunday night forecast is 1 - 3".  Precip by then seems very iffy out here. 

[WeatherQ]

47 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

This happened with the Feb 2006 storm. I'll never forget seeing the visible satellite that morning after staying up all night with the heavy thundersnow. 

Any chance for us fellow “Millville” alumni you could go back to the Weather Desk today and insert “absolute beat down” somewhere in the forecast discussion? 

[baltosquid]

GFS is running. Looks more positively tilted.

[EastCoast NPZ]

19 minutes ago, mappy said:

Really? I just typed in Cross Junction, VA and it’s all snow after 4 and 2-5”

I don't live in cross junction.  Im in stephens city.

[high risk]

Certainly looks like the GFS has lost the idea of heavy snow during the midday hours Sunday. 

[mitchnick]

Jmho, don't buy the models that are dry in northern MD and PA. Starting with last weekend's storm, I've received almost exactly 2" qpf, including almost 1" from last weekend'sstorm. None of the models had that. At least in these parts, the drought pattern is over with a noticeable regime change thanks to the warming equatorial Pacific. 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, high risk said:

Certainly looks like the GFS has lost the idea of heavy snow during the midday hours Sunday. 

Gfs led us to the dead end road to meet the Nam and then bail on us.

[Quasievil]

GFS is def a touch SE of 06Z

[nw baltimore wx]

I only care what happens after temperatures fall tomorrow evening.

 

ETA that there's the gfs we know!

[stormtracker]

Almost went a laid on the train tracks after the NAM. 

[mitchnick]

GfsAI qpf a little SE from 6z. No snowfall maps on Pivotal. 

[mitchnick]

And in classic Gfs form, it fails. Lol

Unless east of the Bay.

[baltosquid]

Western ridge is nice but a broader trough is blunting the heights to the east. The lakes low feature is getting more prominent. Don’t like seeing that trend stronger so late in the game. Check 700 and 850 heights. We’re not closing off there because of that and it’s taking away the heavy GFS precip. And preventing tilt. 

[Solution Man]

Gfs gives Short Pump a foot 

[SnowGolfBro]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

And in classic Gfs form, it fails. Lol

Unless east of the Bay.

GFS is a garbage model. I’ll go with the NAM 

[LeesburgWx]

I trust NAM more than GFS now. GFS got us here, now time to hand off to the short range models 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, baltosquid said:

Western ridge is nice but a broader trough is blunting the heights to the east. The lakes low feature is getting more prominent. Don’t like seeing that trend stronger so late in the game. Check 700 and 850 heights. We’re not closing off there because of that and it’s taking away the heavy GFS precip. And preventing tilt. 

Not sure i buy that especially with a 974 off Rehoboth. Yes vertically stacked always helps esp for classic deform, would be surprised not to see it close up. 

[87storms]

44 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I think it'll be a little beneficial, but really like areas above 600' for the early stuff tomorrow. Any elevation helps!

I’ll just have to drive up the street for the first part of the storm, if that’s the case.

[Imgoinhungry]

And in classic Gfs form, it fails. Lol
Unless east of the Bay.

Shocker!


.

[baltosquid]

Yeah 700mb closed low is up in MI now.

Just now, DDweatherman said:

Not sure i buy that especially with a 974 off Rehoboth. Yes vertically stacked always helps esp for classic deform, would be surprised not to see it close up. 

I should clarify it is a problem earlier. We still do close but the best runs had it happen more SW.

[87storms]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

And in classic Gfs form, it fails. Lol

Unless east of the Bay.

I kinda expected that to happen at some point. The euro demands respect.

[WxUSAF]

Gfs is about identical for Delmarva and points NE. Naso identical for the rest of us lol

[DDweatherman]

Just now, baltosquid said:

Yeah 700mb closed low is up in MI now.

I should clarify it is a problem earlier. We still do close but the best runs had it happen more SW.

We definitely do the best when all our UL passes align. We need to improve that today. How’d it look on the NAM? 

[Ji]

Gfs is about identical for Delmarva and points NE. Naso identical for the rest of us lol

It forgot we were in Nino

[DDweatherman]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Gfs is about identical for Delmarva and points NE. Naso identical for the rest of us lol

It’s actually more west up there but east at our lat a bit. I don’t know that we’ll ever have a full consensus until ground truth. 

[Quasievil]

5 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Western ridge is nice but a broader trough is blunting the heights to the east. The lakes low feature is getting more prominent. Don’t like seeing that trend stronger so late in the game. Check 700 and 850 heights. We’re not closing off there because of that and it’s taking away the heavy GFS precip. And preventing tilt. 

This right here is the La Nina effect. 

[Terpeast]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Gfs is about identical for Delmarva and points NE. Naso identical for the rest of us lol

Not what we wanted to see, but still maybe a 2-4er instead of 3-6er, and there’s always the norlun possibility