The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

[weatherpruf]

people are in denial; it will miss us, still a chance this will be nothing; its only at the shore, its only boston yada yada. people do not want to believe it; years of busts remembered but no one remembers 5 years ago or ten years ago......i can't believe the things i'm hearing from people, likewise i can't wrap my head around what i'm seeing here; this isn't just some snow, this is serious damn business. 

[T5403CG]

Nam is going to be  big

Understatement... Yikes!

Sent from my motorola edge 2024 using Tapatalk

[NJwx85]

Just now, deathstar9 said:

Wind and drifting might be a bigger story than the massive snow totals.  Not sure the last time we had such insane wind.

Boxing Day 2010.

[nycwinter]

https://x.com/WxRiskGrains/status/2025278590648987850

[deathstar9]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Boxing Day 2010.

True but this one gets it much further inland.

[Wxbear25]

[Xeimonas]

high end amount increased

[Snowlover11]

Just now, Xeimonas said:

high end amount increased

Lmao what in the world 3-20”

[kat5hurricane]

4 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

The globals are under modeling the snow totals. It’s time to focus on the short term high res models to see where the best banding will be. The track and intensity at this point should be locked in.

This happens all the time. The globals always come in dry leading up to big snowstorms, seen it happen many times. Time to focus more on the mesos now that we're almost 24 hours away. 12" seems like the floor for most of us considering how intense this system will be, of course there will be subsidence somewhere so some might get shafted but this is a big one for just about all of us.

[winterwarlock]

19 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Dude - every model agrees with the NAM. 

No

[TriPol]

7 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

people are in denial; it will miss us, still a chance this will be nothing; its only at the shore, its only boston yada yada. people do not want to believe it; years of busts remembered but no one remembers 5 years ago or ten years ago......i can't believe the things i'm hearing from people, likewise i can't wrap my head around what i'm seeing here; this isn't just some snow, this is serious damn business. 

That happened for Sandy too. People were in denial. We knew what was going to happen two weeks out.

[WestBabylonWeather]

Dear GFS,

 

We owe you an apology.

 

When you first showed this blizzard days ago, we laughed, doubted you, and even called you “Goofus.” Turns out… you saw it coming before the rest of us.

 

The snow is piling up, and you were right.

 

Respectfully,

A very humbled crew

[NJwx85]

3k

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, TriPol said:

That happened for Sandy too. People were in denial. We knew what was going to happen two weeks out.

yup i remember.

[boxingdayblizzard]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

3k

Wow, those snow bands it’s depicting, all the way into NE Jersey. What a beauty. 

[TriPol]

https://townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/p/weather-model-run-times.html

Just so everyone has the ability to see this. It's a bit old and doesn't include the 6z and 18z times of the EURO as well as the run times of the AI versions of the GFS and EURO, but it's still somewhat helpful:

 

Quote

GFS (out to 384 hours)
0z: 10:30pm
6z: 4:30am
12z: 10:30am
18z: 4:30pm

NAM (out to 84 hours)
0z: 8:35pm
6z: 2:35am
12z: 8:35am
18z: 2:35pm

CMC (out to 180 hours)
0z: 12:00am
12z : 12:00pm

UKMET (out to 72 hours)
0z: 12:30am
12z: 12:30pm

ECMWF (EURO) (out to 240 hours)
0z: 1:30am
12z: 1:30pm

 

[SACRUS]

 

2/21 18z NAM 3k

Total QPF 2/22-2/23-24

 

 

Snow 10:1

 

 

[NJwx85]

The GFS was terrible with Sandy. The Euro nailed it 

[Santa Claus]

6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

3k

all-timer

[NsWx516]

6 minutes ago, TriPol said:

That happened for Sandy too. People were in denial. We knew what was going to happen two weeks out.

I was here lurking at the time. I went out and bought two generators and enough gas to ride out the storm comfortably. I remember reading on here then seeing that there was going to be a full moon and thought….holy sh*t…..

[wthrmn654]

Wow so many new pages, been playing top golf with fire dept.  Looks good

[winterwarlock]

5 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

2/21 18z NAM 3k

Total QPF 2/22-2/23-24

 

 

Snow 10:1

 

 

Definitely more realstic

[WeatherGeek2025]

GFS is the new King!

[EasternLI]

ICON better phase and more amped.

[TriPol]

Just now, winterwarlock said:

Definitely more realstic

It's insane that a "realistic" scenario for NYC is two feet of snow. I love it.

[TriPol]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

GFS is the new King!

Congrats, man. You've been wanting this storm for a while. Hope you enjoy it.

[Nibor]

[winterwarlock]

Just now, TriPol said:

It's insane that a "realistic" scenario for NYC is two feet of snow. I love it.

Because its more in line with majority of models not the 2-3 ft gfs and nam

[EW9616]

It's insane that a "realistic" scenario for NYC is two feet of snow. I love it.

All hard to believe with it being almost 50 today. One of the nicest days in a while with tons of snow melt.


.

[weathermedic]

Latest OKX AFD explains it all

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
338 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Blizzard warnings are now in effect for the entire area except
Orange and Putnam counties where a winter storm warning remains
in effect. The warnings start at 1pm Sunday

Snowfall amounts have been increased slightly

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) An intense coastal storm will bring heavy snowfall and
strong winds from Sunday afternoon into Monday afternoon.
Blizzard conditions are expected across much of the area with
near-blizzard conditions across Orange and Putnam counties
Sunday night into the first half of Monday.

2) Potential for widespread moderate to locally major coastal
flooding and dune erosion/overwashes Sunday night. Additional
coastal flooding is possible on Monday.

3) Low pressure and a cold front will bring another chance for
precipitation during mid next week. Temperatures rising into the
40s by the end of the week will allow for snow melt.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...

Major winter storm impacts the Tri-State Sunday into Monday.

Model guidance has continued to converge on the evolution,
track, and intensity of the system. Low pressure will quickly
develop off along the North Carolina coast Sunday morning and
rapidly intensify Sunday evening into Monday morning as it
slowly lifts north-north east towards the 40N/70W bookmark.
There have been some minor fluctuation within the guidance on
the exact location of the low and whether it passes just inside,
over, or just east of the benchmark. However, little change to
the overall impacts would occur in these scenarios. Ensemble
solutions that were passing much further offshore with a graze
scenario are continuing to look less and less likely. Model
guidance shows pressures rapidly falling Sunday night with the
low deepening around 970 mb as it nears the benchmark. Some
guidance even has it a few mb lower. The low occludes and gets
captured by the upper low with deepening ending and the low
beginning to level off as it lifts NE to off the Cape Monday
night.

Light snow, or a mix of rain and snow, may develop Sunday
morning, but steadier snow should begin overspreading the area
from south to north in the afternoon and evening. Surface
temperatures initially will be above freezing so little to no
impact from any snow expected through early afternoon. Once the
precip intensity increases mid to late Sunday afternoon,
accumulations should begin more efficiently on colder surfaces,
and then roadways Sunday evening as temperatures drop below
freezing. Since there will be little to no impact in the morning,
the start time of the Blizzard Warnings and Winter Storm
Warnings have been moved to 1pm Sunday. This may still be a bit
early, but overall conditions will deteriorate as the evening
approaches.

The explosive development of the low pressure will aid in the
expansion of snow well north and west of the low center. Bands
of moderate to heavy snow will rotate from the southeast to the
northwest during the evening into the overnight as the cyclone
rapidly deepens. These bands of moderate to heavy snow will
continue into Monday morning withing the comma head of the storm
(typically to the N and W of the center of low pressure). These
lingering bands will diminish as the low pulls away Monday
afternoon.

The system is now getting within the range of the high res
guidance and we are beginning to see notable trends of an uptick
in QPF. These changes may move around a bit in the next 24
hours, but overall the trend supports increasing snowfall totals
from the previous forecast. Total snowfall ranges from 12-16
inches inland and S CT to around 15-20 inches closer to the
coast.

There is a reasonable worse case for around 2 ft+ of snow. The
chance for these amounts may be closer to the coast/Long Island,
but cannot entirely rule this out even inland if heavier bands
shift further NW away from the low center. There are still
several ECMWF-EPS ensemble members that are very likely skewing
the overall distribution of the probabilistic snow. These
members have started trending up with the latest 12z EPS,
lending more confidence that the low end amounts are unlikely to
be correct.

Intense dynamics are expected with this storm including strong
difluence and intense frontogenesis all lead to heavy banding
potential and heavy snowfall rates Sunday night into Monday
morning. The cold conveyor belt late Sunday night and Monday
morning appears to sit right on top of the area which will help
the bands remain in place for a while and generally snow
themselves out as the storm starts departing.

Snowfall rates increase Sunday evening, becoming 1-2" per hour
with locally up to 3 inches per hour at times. Several major
winter storms in recent history have produced large heavy snow
bands in the deformation zone with rates locally as high as 4"
per hour. This cannot be ruled out given the type of storm being
depicted by the models.

There is also a chance of a few lightning strikes in the heavier
banding Sunday night into Monday morning. Have not included thunder
in the forecast yet, but cannot ruled this potential out.

Winds will also be quite strong with this storm. Model
soundings show boundary layer winds along the coast 40-60kt with
decent mixing. Coastal locations can expect to see gusts up 45
to 55 mph, possibly even stronger across far eastern LI and
southeast CT up to 60 or 65 mph. Inland areas will be weaker,
but could still see frequent gusts 35 to 45 mph. The highest
winds will occur Sunday night into the first half of Monday.

The blizzard warnings were expanded to higher confidence in
considerable falling snow, strong winds, and poor visibility
well away from the coast. Near-blizzard conditions are possible
outside the blizzard warning.

The snowfall character will start wet and then gradually become
drier as the event matures Sunday night into Monday. Ratios
likely average around 10:1 early on, possibly lower Sunday
afternoon, before averaging around 11-13:1 overnight Sunday into
Monday morning.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...

Strengthening E-NE winds Sunday into Sunday night could produce
a surge of 2.5-3.5 ft, producing widespread moderate to
locally major coastal flooding along the back bays of western
Suffolk and srn Nassau, Peconic Bay, and western Long Island
Sound, and widespread minor to locally moderate flooding in NY
Harbor and Jamaica Bay, the lower Hudson River, and ern Long
Island Sound. The main high tide cycle of concern is Sunday
night. Areas of dune erosion are likely, with localized
overwashes possible along the ocean beachfront Sunday night into
Monday morning.

Additional coastal flooding will likely linger into the
Monday afternoon high tide cycle, with a strong northerly flow
limiting impacts somewhat to minor/locally moderate categories.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...

There may be a few frontal systems that move across in a mostly
zonal flow mid to late next week. Precip chances have come up a
bit late in the week with mostly rain expected at this point.

Temperatures Tuesday range from the upper 20s to low 30s.
Temperatures then trend closer to normal the rest of the week.
This will allow for snowmelt each day and with mostly sub-
freezing temperatures at night into early morning, subsequent
refreeze of snow melt.