“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[Torch Tiger]

5 minutes ago, hooralph said:

Maynard, MA. 1978. 

But looking to tug it SE it a bit. 

amazing shot!

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, FXWX said:

The comparisons are decent; with the explosive deeping of the 500 mb trough, intense 850 low passing south of SNE a bit further south than in 78, great easterly moisture inflow north of the 850; both have classic "S" shaped 850 isotherms as well as signs slowing down and attempt at capture of surface system.  The sfc layout shows the classic banana shaped high with the surface low embedded same as 78; the 78 high was ~1048 mb, this one is a bit stronger ~ 1051 mb; almost exact locations.  So, overall, similar sfc and upper level layouts; not identical, but pretty dam close.  Sfc and upper level features are a tad further south this time.

 

Yes certainly.  I think what separates 78 from the rest was the convection. I had a severe storm for 5 hours of pure whiteout highlighted by constant pink lightning. This allowed insane winds and snow to be transported down into the hardest windpack I have ever been in. Nothing has topped that but 22 is 2nd 

[ScituateMA]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

My recollection of ‘78 is being taunted by my friend while I was crying from my home in LA.  First of leg of my trip descending into Atlanta.  One more leg and I’ll be home.  As I explained to my wife, I’m not a womanizer, I’m reasonably sober and we’re kind to each other.  I’m running out of time and I’m not missing this one.

Have a safe flight. 

 

Lets hope it lives up to hype. 

[DavisStraight]

9 minutes ago, FXWX said:

The comparisons are decent; with the explosive deeping of the 500 mb trough, intense 850 low passing south of SNE a bit further south than in 78, great easterly moisture inflow north of the 850; both have classic "S" shaped 850 isotherms as well as signs slowing down and attempt at capture of surface system.  The sfc layout shows the classic banana shaped high with the surface low embedded same as 78; the 78 high was ~1048 mb, this one is a bit stronger ~ 1051 mb; almost exact locations.  So, overall, similar sfc and upper level layouts; not identical, but pretty dam close.  Sfc and upper level features are a tad further south this time.

 

Im not sure if this is the difference but 78 stalled and actually looped not to mention the heavy banding once it was in the GOM.

[DavisStraight]

8 minutes ago, hooralph said:

Maynard, MA. 1978. 

But looking to tug it SE it a bit. 

Great snowbanks

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Wiz those are all time panels like 6 an hour in convection. Check out the marginal for CT coast can you say 2013 with its 9 per hour band. Yeah that's what those panels remind me of 

Yeah there’s big mid level fronto there from NJ-NYC-CT along that back bent wf.

Check out this weenie warm seclusion too

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, dendrite said:

Yeah there’s big mid level fronto there from NJ-NYC-CT along that back bent wf.

Check out this weenie warm seclusion too

Cat 2 lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

I am not saying you or I, but someone's going to get f'n porked with exhaust on either side 3-5" hour rates , wherever those static bands set up.  <970 mb lol and maturing low with h5 south of us doesn't scream widespread 2'

No, but deep easterly inflow does.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah there’s big mid level fronto there from NJ-NYC-CT along that back bent wf.

Check out this weenie warm seclusion too

Please bend me backwards 

[kdxken]

11 minutes ago, hooralph said:

Maynard, MA. 1978. 

But looking to tug it SE it a bit. 

I love the rabbit!

[mahk_webstah]

26 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Downhill. Don’t do it 

But you’re doing it, aren’t you?

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah there’s big mid level fronto there from NJ-NYC-CT along that back bent wf.

Check out this weenie warm seclusion too

You would think I stand a chance at not getting totally boned with that trajectory...NJ-NYC-CT, although granted it won't be as intense up here. 

[hooralph]

1 minute ago, kdxken said:

I love the rabbit!

No love for the Bus?? It's the most 70s picture ever.
 

 

5 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Great snowbanks

My Dad was a master with the snowblower. I think the 80s hurt him badly.

[Go Kart Mozart]

37 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Was thinking the same thing.

I noticed that too

[Damage In Tolland]

Wee Willie Winky 

[MegaMike]

28 minutes ago, Masswx said:

I feel that hype Im this forum has definitely died down with these 12z and 18z trends despite everybody being concerned about global and not close range models because “it’s too far out”-dad but I think meso models should definitely carry more weight than globals although nice that the euro ticked north and increased qpf. Nice gfs run at 0z and Nam and Reggie and hrrr do are good everybody will say we’re back!

Mesos should definitely be weighted more as you get closer to an event... Small scale features impacts sensible weather and courser models cannot resolve them/assimilate them well. A lot of members repeat this tidbit each storm, but the s need their dopamine fix. 

Here's how NCEP weighs the models for the NBM (snowfall specifically because I'm obsessed with it). Regardless, the weights won't vary much by variable. Since we're ~20-42hrs away from the event, I sorted that column by importance (values are in %). Note: The top 5 model weights are all mesoscale modeling systems and the GFS (diagnostic) is only weighted by 3%.

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You would think I stand a chance atone getting totally boned with that trajectory...NJ-NYC-CT, although granted it won't be as intense up here. 

I was just showing the seclusion at H85. The H6-7 fronto gets even up to here as the mid/upper lows weaken and widen. But there’s like 70kt of inflow that hits a brick wall PHL-NYC-HFD

[weathafella]

Also—-fwiw, GFS seems to get cold feet to a degree in the last runs up to go time almost every coastal for the past like forever.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, MegaMike said:

Mesos should definitely be weighted more as you get closer to an event... Small scale features impacts sensible weather and courser models cannot resolve them/assimilate them well. A lot of members repeat this tidbit each storm, but the s need their dopamine fix. 

Here's how NCEP weighs the models for the NBM (snowfall specifically because I'm obsessed with it). Regardless, the weights won't vary much by variable. Since we're ~20-42hrs away from the event, I sorted that column by importance (values are in %). Note: The top 5 model weights are all mesoscale modeling systems and the GFS (diagnostic) is only weighted by 3%.

A lot of those mesos are usually out in left field…especially the convective allowing ones. 

[weatherwiz]

25 minutes ago, wokeupthisam said:

Always thought with these doozies the short range models are gonna pick up on the banding signals while the globals paint with a broad brush, time to look at the mesoscale and even then, it comes down to radar / nowcast at go time with these bigguns...

Exactly!!

24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Wiz those are all time panels like 6 an hour in convection. Check out the marginal for CT coast can you say 2013 with its 9 per hour band. Yeah that's what those panels remind me of 

I absolutely believe there will be some 4"+ per hour rates 

[HoarfrostHubb]

6 minutes ago, hooralph said:

No love for the Bus?? It's the most 70s picture ever.
 

 

My Dad was a master with the snowblower. I think the 80s hurt him badly.

We had a VW bus and a bug in 1978. Snow drifts were over their roofs when it finally was done.  It took us a week to completely shovel the driveway.  No snowblower.  And that would have been useless I think.  
Mass National Guard front end loaders finally cleared our street.  I was scared and fascinated by them.  Snow forts that remain unrivaled. 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I was just showing the seclusion at H85. The H6-7 fronto gets even up to here as the mid/upper lows weaken and widen. But there’s like 70kt of inflow that hits a brick wall PHL-NYC-HFD

We take that look with an EML

[HoarfrostHubb]

MAUL still showing?

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

We take that look with an EML

Talk dirty to me and whisper slowly next to me ear

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

Mesos should definitely be weighted more as you get closer to an event... Small scale features impacts sensible weather and courser models cannot resolve them/assimilate them well. A lot of members repeat this tidbit each storm, but the s need their dopamine fix. 

Here's how NCEP weighs the models for the NBM (snowfall specifically because I'm obsessed with it). Regardless, the weights won't vary much by variable. Since we're ~20-42hrs away from the event, I sorted that column by importance (values are in %). Note: The top 5 model weights are all mesoscale modeling systems and the GFS (diagnostic) is only weighted by 3%.

Pretty cool stuff. Great to see my FV3 up there.

[ineedsnow]

lets get this further up the coast and stall near Long Island

[weatherwiz]

Gotta show some love to the WSSI

[deathstar9]

59 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

40" was common in eastern MA and RI, just did not have the degree of spotter/co-op observers back them.  A fairly reliable measurement from someone I know got about 44" total in an open field in Woburn MA.  Given the how the area between 128-495 NW of BOS tends to have a local precip max in many nor'easters, this is not unreasonable. 

What must the max been in March 88 then?  Tons of official 40-50” obs.

[ineedsnow]

3 recon flights out right now

[Dan76]

23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yes certainly.  I think what separates 78 from the rest was the convection. I had a severe storm for 5 hours of pure whiteout highlighted by constant pink lightning. This allowed insane winds and snow to be transported down into the hardest windpack I have ever been in. Nothing has topped that but 22 is 2nd 

I remember that thought it was transformers blowing was too young to understand it was lighting... sick