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Everything posted by kdxken

  1. Likely the Great lakes above normal sst's will keep us above freezing through most of the winter.
  2. Enjoy the swan song. High pressure then establishes itself over Southern New England Sunday into midweek, with above normal temperatures, low humidity and dry weather. A cold frontal passage around Wednesday night or Thursday ushers in a cooler autumn-like air mass with below normal temperatures for late next week into early next weekend.
  3. I see some lightning to the West. Is this going to be a Derecho?
  4. Praying it stays East. The way it's been going this year I doubt it.
  5. .18 from the line that came through early. Hoping to get lucky and avoid what's coming later.
  6. Oh good only 3 inches of rain. Heavy rainfall appears to be the primary threat and deep warm cloud depths will support warm rain processes. Total rainfall of 1-2 inches with localized 3 inches are possible near the I-95 corridor from late tonight through Thu. Areas of poor drainage street flooding will be possible
  7. Didn't we used to have a poster from fort kent? Or was that you?
  8. So how much rain is Eastern Mass supposed to pick up with this Wednesday / Thursday mess?
  9. Super more flooding. Still have some discrepancy on how quickly the cold front moves through. Given the deep trough slowly lifting through am thinking the front will be slowly moving through like depicted by the UKMET/ECMWF/CMC/ICON guidance. The GFS/NAM are the fastest with moving the front through. Will be important in how quickly the front passes through because could have a prolonged heavy rain risk Wednesday night and especially on Thursday. Wednesday night PWATs increase to roughly 1.5-1.75" ahead of the incoming front. On Thursday south-southwesterly flow will advect in 1.75-2" PWATs. This is AOA the 90th percentile per SPC Sounding climatology for CHH for this time of year. Given antecedent conditions we can`t handle too much rainfall, so think there could be a flood risk Wednesday night and on Thursday. The current WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook may not be far enough west especially if things continue trending toward the slower solutions.
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