"So in a nutshell...the ingredients above are concerning for a narrow band of torrential rainfall and the potential for localized flash flooding. The HREF has probabilities for 6-24 HR precipitation values to exceed 10 year ARI across parts of eastern CT/RI and southeast MA. There are even very low probabilities to exceed 100 year ARI values near the south coast. That being said...whether or not this actually materializes remains uncertain and will depend on the mesoscale. And on top of that...even if it occurs trying to determine the specific location is still beyond the state of the
science. But we do know this risk will hinge on the potential for where a mesoscale low tracks...which would setup an area of enhanced
low level convergence for the southerly LLJ to impinge upon"
Stein!