Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

The storm isn’t hugging the coast and turning people to rain guys lol. 

We'll see how things go over the next day but I like areas west of us to see the most snow. 

[RU848789]

17 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

then as soon as the sun goes down the fun begins - and this could be more difficult to remove then the last storm because it will mainly fall overnight

Nothing is tougher to remove than sleet, especially when it falls at 15F and freezes solid if people didn't remove it soon enough (I did, but many friends didn't).  This won't be a picnic though, either.  

[Prue11]

4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

We'll see how things go over the next day but I like areas west of us to see the most snow. 

So you’re thinking Li isn’t jackpot zone?

[WeatherGeek2025]

6 minutes ago, Rjay said:

We'll see how things go over the next day but I like areas west of us to see the most snow. 

you're literally in the most perfect spot for this  storm. I like Plum Island as the Jackpot for this storm! Why because there'll be ocean enhanced snow with those gusty winds! 

[Wxbear25]

A few things and about temps with this storm

1) An occluding low is becoming vertically stacked, so you need to worry less about the surface low having a good track, but getting skunked by an 850mb low 150 miles west of you flooding the region with warm air

2) The precipitation will be very, very heavy so it will naturally cool the column

3) The deeper the low, the more the pressure gradient force overwhelms the coriolis force resulting in a more direct high->Low wind direction. In other words, winds will be more northerly than one would expect from a low in that position

4) The low eventually will lose northward momentum and pinwheel eastward, so whatever push of warm air there may be (which there wont really) will be gone

The big thing I'd be worried about if this thing keeps coming north is a big-ol wedge of dry air just being hurled northward into somewhere over eastern LI/southern New England

 

[mriceyman]

So you’re thinking Li isn’t jackpot zone?

Cmon don’t you know.. Monmouth county jackpot incoming


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[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Rjay said:

We'll see how things go over the next day but I like areas west of us to see the most snow. 

Long Island looks to be in the jackpot zone on the models but we know that bands usually set uo elsewhere than where the models have it. 

[Wxbear25]

7 minutes ago, Rjay said:

We'll see how things go over the next day but I like areas west of us to see the most snow. 

Any particular reasoning for your thinking? I'm personally more worried about areas north jackpotting relative to LI than west. Theres only so far this thing can go west given the location and orientation of the upper level features

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Long Island looks to be in the jackpot zone on the models but we know that bands usually set uo elsewhere than where the models have it. 

Long Island and Jersey shores or just inland are prime spots for thundersnow for this storm in my opinion!

[wthrmn654]

13 minutes ago, NsWx516 said:

So did the Blizzard of 1888

You were alive for that? Makes you 137 years old

[jerseyshorewxguy]

but several forecasters are mentioning rain to start - very confusing situation and differences of opinion

it's not confusing at all


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[jerseyshorewxguy]

I don't think the rain at the front end is about a close approach. It's about a marginally cold airmas coupled with light precip.

thank you for an intelligent post.


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[SACRUS]

 

2/21 00z SREF mean Total QPF  through 2/24 00z

 

 

 

Snow 10:1

 

[NsWx516]

Just now, wthrmn654 said:

You were alive for that? Makes you 137 years old

Weather Twitter told me so

[jm1220]

11 minutes ago, Rjay said:

We'll see how things go over the next day but I like areas west of us to see the most snow. 

Yep. Often these like to tick east a little at the very end. I can definitely see the scenario where the death band sets up over NJ and Hudson Valley but way too early to iron out those details. 

[Rjay]

3 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

So you’re thinking Li isn’t jackpot zone?

No I don't. Well maybe Nassau. Again we are kinda far out for this though.  Nnj down to the Jersey shore, nyc and lower HV would be my guess right now but that could easily change over the next 24-36 hours.  

[SACRUS]

 

2/21 00z Summary

Total QPF NYC / Total 10:1 Snow NYC

SREF:  1.5 / 14.1
NAM: 2.3 / 22.3

[TriPol]

20 minutes until getting NAM'd.

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, TriPol said:

20 minutes until getting NAM'd.

Let's keep our expectations in check though. Remember NAM struggles mightily beyond 36-48hrs, we're just entering its more accurate range. 

[LovintheWhiteFluff]

45 minutes ago, Rjay said:

 

[T5403CG]

No I don't. Well maybe Nassau. Again we are kinda far out for this though.  Nnj down to the Jersey shore, nyc and lower HV would be my guess right now but that could easily change over the next 24-36 hours.  

So you believe the eventual track will be over or inside the benchmark?

Never seen a track SE of the benchmark jackpot west of Long Island and eastern New England...

Given the current modeling, this storm is reminding me more and more of 12/19-20 2009...

Storm came off VA/NC and bombed as it moved NE... Storm skirted just SE of the benchmark... It unloaded on Long Island... through eastern New England...

Obviously if the track continues to move N/W, and it does end up inside the benchmark, I can see the deformation zone moving further west into NJ...

The next 24 hours are gonna tell us a lot... just glad it doesn't look like it did 24 hours ago...



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[Rmine1]

46 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

terrible post, this could go another 100 miles west and NyC will still be snow. 

Why? It’s happened more often than not for the immediate coast, and temps going quite warm as the precip moves in. Usual spots will JP. NNJ, LHV etc

[Mail Man]

When will the HRRR start becoming important

[Prue11]

18 minutes ago, Rjay said:

No I don't. Well maybe Nassau. Again we are kinda far out for this though.  Nnj down to the Jersey shore, nyc and lower HV would be my guess right now but that could easily change over the next 24-36 hours.  

Joe cioffi believes the lower Hv or Sw CT will see the heaviest snow 

[David-LI]

1 minute ago, Mail Man said:

When will the HRRR start becoming important

Within 24 hours. Even better within 12 hours.

[Winterweatherlover]

This does look most similar to boxing day of any storm i can remember and I believe NE NJ jackpotted in that One. Either way I think everyone in the subforum probably gets double digits. 

[forkyfork]

every single model shows a back bent warm front over us in the mid levels except for the longer range rgem. i am very confident of 18+ for most of us

[Winterweatherlover]

8 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

Why? It’s happened more often than not for the immediate coast, and temps going quite warm as the precip moves in. Usual spots will JP. NNJ, LHV etc

Theres no warmth coming with this system at any levels, temps will crash once storm intensifies. This is completely different setup than say 1/25.

[JonClaw]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

every single model shows a back bent warm front over us in the mid levels except for the longer range rgem. i am very confident of 18+ for most of us

[Rjay]

18 minutes ago, T5403CG said:

So you believe the eventual track will be over or inside the benchmark?

Never seen a track SE of the benchmark jackpot west of Long Island and eastern New England...

Given the current modeling, this storm is reminding me more and more of 12/19-20 2009...

Storm came off VA/NC and bombed as it moved NE... Storm skirted just SE of the benchmark... It unloaded on Long Island... through eastern New England...

Obviously if the track continues to move N/W, and it does end up inside the benchmark, I can see the deformation zone moving further west into NJ...

The next 24 hours are gonna tell us a lot... just glad it doesn't look like it did 24 hours ago...



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Most of our posters benchmark is different from New England's benchmark.  Nyc and Nj's bm is east of AC.  Also the west trend on the models hasn't stopped.