The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

[EastonSN+]

I thought the NWS leans on the NBM for their forecast 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

ps the drifts 

 

yeah with 16 inches could equal 2- 3 foot drifts which will be shoveling for a week - still have a small pile of ice to remove today from 27 days ago

[SACRUS]

 

I posted this late last night and not sure i am navigating the CIPS analog website correctly but this is what i was able to find - fwiw if anything:

 

• Individual Analogs
• 1. 20200306/1800
  2. 19800207/0600
  3. 20180307/1800
  4. 20230314/0000
  5. 20130325/1800
  6. 20150127/0000
  7. 20180313/0000
  8. 20140326/0000
  9. 19830116/0000
  10. 20010305/1800
  11. 20060212/1200
  12. 19840329/1200
  13. 20130306/1800
  14. 20110127/0000
  15. 19870126/1200

[NJwx85]

https://twitter.com/accurayno/status/2025183767418040518?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw

[SACRUS]

2/21  09z SREF

Total QPF 2/22 - 2/23-24

 

10:1 Snow

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I thought the NWS leans on the NBM for their forecast 

only when it makes them look good

[NsWx516]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

https://twitter.com/accurayno/status/2025183767418040518?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw

I saw this before so Bernies locked in, he was playing it very conservative at the beginning

[SACRUS]

 

2/21 12z Summary

Total QPF 2/22 -2/23-24 NYC

/
Snow 10:1  NYC

SREF: 1/8 / 17.1
NAM: 2.5 / 24.1
NAM 3k: 2.2 / 21.6
ICON: 1.4 / 13.9
RGEM: 1.3 / 13.1
GFS:  2.0 / 20.3
GFS AI AIGFS: 1.4 / 13.8
GGEM: 1.5 / 14.7
GEFS: 1.8 / 17.8
UKMET: 1/2  / 12.9

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

I posted this late last night and not sure i am navigating the CIPS analog website correctly but this is what i was able to find - fwiw if anything:

 

• Individual Analogs
• 1. 20200306/1800
  2. 19800207/0600
  3. 20180307/1800
  4. 20230314/0000
  5. 20130325/1800
  6. 20150127/0000
  7. 20180313/0000
  8. 20140326/0000
  9. 19830116/0000
  10. 20010305/1800
  11. 20060212/1200
  12. 19840329/1200
  13. 20130306/1800
  14. 20110127/0000
  15. 19870126/1200

where is the January 1996 storm ? Had 0ver 30 inches here but I was in Northern Ocean County at the time and only had 20 inches 

[Winterweatherlover]

Boxing Day still seems like one of the best analogs to me and the same model led the way on both.

[TriPol]

Quote

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Confidence has increased to the point where winter storm and
blizzard warnings have been issued across the forecast area.

A major winter storm is forecast to impact the area Sunday into
Monday. Model guidance has congealed in taking a deepening low
off the Mid Atlantic coast Sunday northeast to near the 40N...70W
benchmark Monday. This track is often favorable for all snow
across the region. The low undergoes explosive deepening in 12h,
tracking from near the North Carolina coast Sunday afternoon to
east of the Delmarva Sunday night. Most of the guidance shows
pressure falls on the order of 25 to 30 mb in 12 hour. The low
deepens to around 970 mb as it approaches the benchmark Monday
morning.

This storm, expected to be early 1000 miles across in diameter,
will produce heavy precipitation and gale to storm force winds
over the adjacent coastal waters. Model soundings show boundary
layer winds along the coast 40-60kt with decent mixing. Coastal
locations can expect to see gusts up 40 to 50 mph, possibly even
stronger across far eastern LI and southeast CT. Even inland
area will see near blizzard conditions with winds just a bit
weaker. The highest winds will occur Sunday night into the
first half of Monday.

Liquid equivalent amounts of around an inch across far NW
portions of Orange county will be near an inch, with upward of
an 1.5" at the coast. There is even some guidance suggestive of
amount around 2 inches at the coast. However, while there is
good overall agreement in the guidance, there still have been
small adjustments east and west and a consenus forecast (blend
of WPC and NBM) was used. Snow ratios are expected to start of
around 10:1 and then possibly get up to 12-13:1. Temperatures
initially on Sunday may get into the lower and mid 30s, expect
most locations to fall to around freezing if not lower as the
heavy snow develops in the afternoon. So ratios right off the
bat along he coast may even be lower for a short time.

Snowfall amounts of 14 to 18 inches are forecast along the coast
with 10 to 14 inches across the interior. NBM deterministic
forecasts point to amounts of 14 to 24 inches across the area,
highest along the coast. But due to some wobbling of the low
track a bit, we do want to see more continuity. NBM 90th
percentile has amounts of 2 to 3 ft. The 00Z LREF (EPS, GEPS,
and GEFS) mean has about a foot at the coast and 7 to 8 inches
across far western sections of Orange County in the Lower Hudson
Valley. The EPS is contributing lower amounts with a more
eastern solution. Should it come a bit more west, than the
higher totals are not out of the realm possibility.

Snow is forecast to develop from SW to NE on Sunday, in the
morning from NYC and points north and west, and the in the
afternoon for the remainder of the area. The heaviest snow and
wind will be Sunday night into Monday morning. Snow will end
from west to east during the afternoon hours.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...

Strengthening E-NE winds Sunday into Sunday night could produce
a surge of 2.5-3.5 ft, producing widespread moderate to
locally major coastal flooding along the back bays of western
Suffolk and srn Nassau, Peconic Bay, and western Long Island
Sound, and widespread minor to locally moderate flooding in NY
Harbor and Jamaica Bay, the lower Hudson River, and ern Long
Island Sound. The main high tide cycle of concern is Sunday
night. Areas of dune erosion are likely, with localized
overwashes possible along the ocean beachfront Sunday night into
Monday morning.

Additional coastal flooding will likely linger into the
Monday afternoon high tide cycle, with a strong northerly flow
limiting impacts somewhat to minor/locally moderate categories.

 

[BoulderWX]

2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Boxing Day still seems like one of the best analogs to me and the same model led the way on both.

Agree but praying this one turns out different for me. I got like 7” and 15 miles east had over 20”. Could be similar lol

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Boxing Day still seems like one of the best analogs to me and the same model led the way on both.

If its modeling holds for this storm the GFS will get an A+ for it - it wants to retire a winner

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, nycsnow said:

Like the look of this.  Will get the nuclear totals solidly into NWNJ.  Almost go time.  12Z Mesos will start really zoning in on this one way or the other.

[Monty]

14 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Start time guesstimate anyone ? 8 am ?????? and when does she get cranking is it in the afternoon or at night ?

I think if you're north of 195 it's snizzly for a bit. Non accumulating snow until early afternoon, cranks as it gets dark. 

[wthrmn654]

This will be the longest stretch of solid snow cover over 1 inch that I can remember in my area.  Minus where winds blew snow to nearly the grass... wow and not hitting 40 since jan 22... wonder how long can keep this record going!?

[SACRUS]

1-1.75 QPF

 

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, Monty said:

I think if you're north of 195 it's snizzly for a bit. Non accumulating snow until early afternoon, cranks as it gets dark. 

north of I-95 ?? please explain

[donsutherland1]

14 minutes ago, Freezing Drizzle said:

@donsutherland1

Good morning, the late-"Icehater," a great poster on the old NYC Metro forum wrote that the temperature during the "Lindsey Storm" of February, 1969 hovered around 34 F and never went below freezing.  Would you have temperature data for that storm for CPK or other points? FD

The low temperatures were:

EWR: 24
ISP: 27
JFK: 26
LGA: 26
NYC: 26

[wthrmn654]

Just saw this on Facebook and I'm not going lie I really like the spread 

 

Maybe a little more in jersey area

 

[EasternLI]

However unlikely this may be. If any of those insane western sref members were ever to actually take place. I'll see you all after we rebuild all infrastructure.

[Blizzardo]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

north of I-95 ?? please explain

195 is like exit 100 on the parkway

[winterwarlock]

Are models in agreement on start time? I thought the 0z nam was aggressive in getting snow going tomorrow morning. Have modeld backed off on that

[SACRUS]

1 minute ago, Blizzardo said:

195 is like exit 100 on the parkway

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, Blizzardo said:

195 is like exit 100 on the parkway

yes in southern Monmouth County - know it well lived in Northern Ocean and traveled to work in Farmingdale NJ for years

[TJW014]

4 minutes ago, Blizzardo said:

195 is like exit 100 on the parkway

98. 100 is SR-33

[SACRUS]

 

GFS warmest at 15z (10:00 Sunday morning)

 

lowest (29) at 12z Mon / 7AM

[Monty]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

north of I-95 ?? please explain

That's a 1 not an I. I think intensity is light enough for the NYC metro that not much accumulates until mid afternoon. There's not much forcing away from the sfc low until all the energy gets into the trof and it detonates.

[Mr. T.]

6 minutes ago, Blizzardo said:

195 is like exit 100 on the parkway

Pretty much. It's exit 98. I used to live in Toms River, NJ (moved this year) and hated how it didn't snow there for the past 3 to 5 years except once. Wish I could go there one more time as it much jackpot for this storm.

[Blizzardo]

Just now, Mr. T. said:

Pretty much. It's exit 98. I used to live in Toms River, NJ and hated how it didn't snow there for the past 3 to 5 years except once. Wish I could go there one more time as it much jackpot for this storm.

i knew it was either one of those...lol