3/16/26 Severe Weather Event Thread (Moderate Risk) | Latest: 15% TOR, 60% WIND, 5% HAIL

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

3 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Needs a lot more helicity with this low amount of buoyancy. There's a narrow window this evening before the cold front, but you'd have to stop bombarding the warm sector with this low grade overturning for it to work. This is why capping is so important. You have it or you get this nonsense.

Do all these  severe thunderstorm warnings merit a bust?

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, csnavywx said:

Needs a lot more helicity with this low amount of buoyancy. There's a narrow window this evening before the cold front, but you'd have to stop bombarding the warm sector with this low grade overturning for it to work. This is why capping is so important. You have it or you get this nonsense.

Re: capping. We were barely capped at 12z, and with convection already initiated, it wasn't gonna last long before this line formed. I should have checked this sounding before hoping for anything.

[hstorm]

HRRR, NAM, and GFS all showing a period of snow tonight N&W of DC.  

[LongRanger]

64 with severe sprinkles amounting to 0.01 here

[wasnow215]

Man I hope all of you who have "canceled" this are correct, or else there is gonna be a lot of receipts lol

[csnavywx]

2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Do all these  severe thunderstorm warnings merit a bust?

Virtually all of the LSRs are confined up on the Piedmont and mountains to the west/southwest. Makes sense, because that was the only area that got a chance to destabilize a bit before the crapvection-driven overturning got going. Consolation prize is that it's killing the line off completely to the south, so there might be a chance for the cold front this evening to have a bit of something to work with.

[mappy]

Just now, wasnow215 said:

Man I hope all of you who have "canceled" this are correct, or else there is gonna be a lot of receipts lol

I’ll never understand following an event when you think it’s a nothing burger. Go find something better to do with your time if you’re not interested. General “you”. 

[Kmlwx]

This line has some "interesting" little cells in it. I am also curious to see how gusty the synoptic winds end up being after the frontal passage. That could add in a few more downed tree reports in the region (but not severe t'storm related, of course). 

I think there are a few interesting "kinks" in this line that bear watching for brief spin ups. 

[Eskimo Joe]

00/06/12z HRRR was insistent on a strong cell running from IAD to Westminster and that's exactly what happened. It's like it got it right for the wrong reasons?

[Scraff]

There we go! Not a bust. 

[Kay]

4 minutes ago, mappy said:

I’ll never understand following an event when you think it’s a nothing burger. Go find something better to do with your time if you’re not interested. General “you”. 

Especially after making your opinion and boredom known numerous times. You're on the record and your work is done 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

I can't remember a time when multiple long squall lines formed one behind another like this. 

[DDweatherman]

9 minutes ago, mappy said:

I’ll never understand following an event when you think it’s a nothing burger. Go find something better to do with your time if you’re not interested. General “you”. 

That’s just your opinion. Everyone can have one. I don’t think it was that hard to see this evolution even if you waited until the 6am alarm and did our classic now casting obs. This wasn’t going to be a high end severe day…

[WxUSAF]

19 minutes ago, mappy said:

Love the nice skinny line that formed. 

Ack I’m going to even miss out on heavy rain 

[DDweatherman]

Good news, sun breaking out in earnest, bright and warming up…in Denver. 28 degrees with some snow on the ground. It’ll be 82 in 2 days. 

[weatherwiz]

The dirty warm sector stuff really did a number on the lapse rates...might be difficult to really re-destabilize sufficiently. Also wondering if the better forcing started lagging behind a bit. A lot of this activity really struggled to become mature and develop strong updrafts. Instability didn't appear to be too terrible but maybe was just too weak given the magnitude of the shear so updrafts were being toppled over before they could sufficiently grow vertically.

This probably isn't going to pan out to how it once looked but this is far from over. Window from say 3-8 PM could be interesting from central Virginia into North Carolina. 

[dailylurker]

It's chilly and cloudy. Oh well lol

[wxmeddler]

Shear too strong given lack (or near none) low level instability. Lapse rates aren't helping but we knew that going in.

Edit: Also, almost no lightning with these. Can't get any serious updrafts to -20C. Kinda pathetic.

[snowfan]

Regardless of the final severe outcome, the rapid temp drop this evening will be impressive.

 

[wasnow215]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

The dirty warm sector stuff really did a number on the lapse rates...might be difficult to really re-destabilize sufficiently. Also wondering if the better forcing started lagging behind a bit. A lot of this activity really struggled to become mature and develop strong updrafts. Instability didn't appear to be too terrible but maybe was just too weak given the magnitude of the shear so updrafts were being toppled over before they could sufficiently grow vertically.

This probably isn't going to pan out to how it once looked but this is far from over. Window from say 3-8 PM could be interesting from central Virginia into North Carolina. 

Yeah NAM 3k had that 8 PM line

[jon_snow]

24 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Do all these  severe thunderstorm warnings merit a bust?

99 out of 100 times any weather event in this area busts. 

[wasnow215]

2 minutes ago, jon_snow said:

99 out of 100 times any weather event in this area busts. 

Silly-exaggeration

[weatherCCB]

Nothing severe, but good beneficial rain here

0.98” 

[Amped]

Gonna get a decent amount of rain where that line is training.

[SnowDreamer]

Very heavy rain and immediate flooding in the line passing through fairfax. Personal weather station showing 4.5”-5” per hour rates. 

[Warm Nose]

I'm not complaining about missing severe weather that could cause damage or injury.

[kgottwald]

Heavy rain in Tysons. The rain keeps coming in from the southwest. This line is not moving east at all.

Looks like I might have to wait for sunset for the rain to stop.

[Scraff]

18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Ack I’m going to even miss out on heavy rain 

Not a drop of rain since early this morning. I mean at some point I guess we should get hit? 

[LeesburgWx]

Just drive through that line in FairFax County. Very heavy rain and street flooding lots of olaces

[MN Transplant]

It is pouring in waves.  Instant rain rate of >6"/hr.