January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[Weather Will]

Totals WB 6Z EURO

[Buddy1987]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

Euro still has that warm nose at 700-850 gets up to me by Sunday afternoon 

Pretty wild the warm nose makes it to your neck of the woods. From what I remember you’re northernmost portion of the forum. 

[Ephesians2]

Euro looks a few degrees warmer at the surface than other models. 

[mappy]

Zoomed in qpf 

[Weather Will]

GFS and EURO very similar.  NW burbs 15-20, locally more; DC mixing but near a foot.

[mappy]

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

Pretty wild the warm nose makes it to your neck of the woods. From what I remember you’re northernmost portion of the forum. 

I am but due north of Baltimore so I usually flip, while those west of me don’t 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Looks like a hold with mostly just noise difference, thought it was coming in colder but just a bit slower.  Good run, double digits in dc. 

[WxUSAF]

Just based off Will’s maps, looks like more snow before a flip than 0z, but more precip total after a flip? I again will sell on ZR vs sleet…

[Weather Will]

True glacier by Tuesday am; very rare to have extended cold after a snow storm. WB 6Z EURO

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

If the euro is right about the freezing rain, foot of snow in dc and then a bunch of freezing rain and then into the ice box…this region will be shut down.  Is its sleet/frz rain algo usually good?

[RevWarReenactor]

Really glad to see the Euro held overnight and even ticked south. Seems like things are starting to solidify for I-95 for 6-12 inches depending on the mixing. Would take a drastic shift to go under 6 inches IMO. Freezing rain could make things ugly though. Especially since temps crash afterwards. Really hope the back end stuff on the GFS verifies. 

[TSSN+]

Why’s the euros sleet output so bad? Model struggles at showing sleet. 

[Ephesians2]

Ice accretion NOT QPF

hopefully most of this is sleet, but if it's not, that's going to be absolutely crippling

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

True glacier by Tuesday am; very rare to have extended cold after a snow storm.

I wonder if euro is overdoing the micro-climates using a resolution that is too coarse for that purpose.

[Weather Will]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Why’s the euros sleet output so bad? Model struggles at showing sleet. 

No idea.... it will be interesting to watch the short range models as we get closer to game time for those details.

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Really glad to see the Euro held overnight and even ticked south. Seems like things are starting to solidify for I-95 for 6-12 inches depending on the mixing. Would take a drastic shift to go under 6 inches IMO. Freezing rain could make things ugly though. Especially since temps crash afterwards. Really hope the back end stuff on the GFS verifies. 

With the sleet/ice, it will be a much higher impact than a pure 6-12" snowfall and remain that way for a good while due to temps afterward,

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Ephesians2 said:

Ice accretion NOT QPF

hopefully most of this is sleet, but if it's not, that's going to be absolutely crippling

Euro can’t display sleet correctly. A decent amount of the northern part of that zr is likely sleet. But still lot of zr coming for some in VA and NC. 

[Eskimo Joe]

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

True glacier by Tuesday am; very rare to have extended cold after a snow storm. WB 6Z EURO

Single digits for most of Delmarva is nuts.

[tdatcher]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Why’s the euros sleet output so bad? Model struggles at showing sleet. 

Wondering that too, poked around some Sim soundings in Hughesville and saw more of a sleet signal 

[LeesburgWx]

I think we all need a 25-50 mile move south today. Or a degree colder. We are about to get pummeled, and looks like we will probably get a combo of precipitation type. And then the ice box temp wise. 

[snowfan]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Single digits for most of Delmarva is nuts.

Its overdone, but it will definitely be cold.

[Warm Nose]

We really need that back end to be IP instead of ZR. I don’t need an extended power outage. It’s going to be really bad South of I64. 

[mitchnick]

Eps remain nice.

[TSSN+]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Eps remain nice.

12” at 10:1? I guess it’s acceptable lol

[benjammin]

WB 6Z GFS is an area wide crush job! 
 
 
 
 

Could you post those maps that show our full forum area if possible? Thanks!

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

[Buddy1987]

5 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

We really need that back end to be IP instead of ZR. I don’t need an extended power outage. It’s going to be really bad South of I64. 

I’m really beginning to wonder though if the Euro is way overdoing it on the ZR potential? Maybe I end up being wrong but I feel a sleet fest inbound. 

[Weather Will]

2 minutes ago, benjammin said:

Could you post those maps that show our full forum area if possible? Thanks!

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk
 

Here you go.... WB 6Z GFS

[yoda]

Oh okay (only through 7am Sunday... so more snow to come after!)

 

[Eskimo Joe]

06z GFS is a historic snowfall for many. Wow.

[osfan24]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

06z GFS is a historic snowfall for many. Wow.

No doubt. Praying it is right but I know better. Just have to hope the Euro is wrong with the warm nose. Hopefully, the NAM can help us figuring TThat out as we get closer.