MillvilleWx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: As for when the NS is sampled I don’t know but @MillvilleWx probably does. As for needing it sampled to know what happens that’s true. We need the whole picture not one half. 4 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: So, I know the Euro is getting data from the Pacific, but based on what I read in the LWX AFD earlier, I still feel like models won't have this worked out until the northern stream is sampled better. I think I read that that won't happen until later tomorrow. Is there anyone still awake that's in the know? The N/S will be sampled better by tomorrow as it exits the Arctic regions and comes into more favorable RAOB domain. That said, models are probably still on the right track right now, but a small shift is still plausible once that is alignment with better land data captures. As for the oceanic recons, reading into some responses from the flight members and they said it’s not a magic pill right now for immediate change, but more data collection over the coming 24 hrs will add more to the general picture in the future ingests, so it’s a steady assistance prior to the S/W making “landfall” over Baja. 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, jayyy said: Take us home Randy This, ladies and gentlemen is the lightning round 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Tabs at the ready. Feeling good 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: The N/S will be sampled better by tomorrow as it exits the Arctic regions and comes into more favorable RAOB domain. That said, models are probably still on the right track right now, but a small shift is still plausible once that is alignment with better land data captures. As for the oceanic recons, reading into some responses from the flight members and they said it’s not a magic pill right now for immediate change, but more data collection over the coming 24 hrs will add more to the general picture in the future ingests, so it’s a steady assistance prior to the S/W making “landfall” over Baja. Good stuff! Thanks. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Tabs at the ready. Feeling good Always love seeing under the hood, lets do it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 WB 0Z EURO AI 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Was looking at the Kuchera ratio map on the gfs run. It had DC at around 14-1 and the ratios progressed up to 20-1 well west of town. Not sure how accurate that is but pretty phenomenal fluff if true. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 No remarkable changes through 51 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z EURO AI riding the knifes edge man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just caught up and took a moment for myself after that GFS run.. Ukie looks huge, as well. Let’s bring it home with the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 AI took primary to WV smh...so much for being the rock solid model of consistency 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NVAwx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 AI took primary to WV smh...so much for being the rock solid model of consistencyIt’s got that new new data. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Heights a hair higher out in front.baja sw in about the same position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Those temps at onset on the AI are pretty mouthwatering. Around 10 degrees out this way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, NVAwx said: It’s got that new new data. . I could be very wrong, but I don’t think that’s how the AI models work. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, Ji said: AI took primary to WV smh...so much for being the rock solid model of consistency And we still got double digits 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, Chris78 said: And we still got double digits on 10:1 as well 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Surface about the same so far thru 66. Going just switch to that since those panels come in quicker 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, nw baltimore wx said: I could be very wrong, but I don’t think that’s how the AI models work. I would think the AI models get all the same data the physics models do, except instead of feeding a physics engine they feed an LLM. If that map is right then it seems that the AI has definitely gone with the WV primary idea, which is not great news. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Here she comes 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 81. Precip shield appears a lil more flatter..just a little 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Don't have precip type maps..so do with that what you will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 its still cold enough i guess at 16z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Looks a bit warmer from what I can tell 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Done by 105 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Last panel of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Go to mixing Sunday between 1pm-7 location dependent and then back to snow 1am Monday it seems . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Looks like all of us mix in the afternoon. But should be some good damage done by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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