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About heavy_wx

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    State College, PA

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  1. Around 6:30. Once they posted that they had Doubleganger, people freaked out. Luckily I was still able to pick up some.
  2. I drove to the Cape from PA today; low 80s and sun until hitting eastern CT. Then it clouded up to light/moderate rain down 495 and route 6. Of course I had to stop at Tree House being on the way and just off of I-84.
  3. I think that's a bit generous. There are quite a few years where the Tug Hill doesn't see a 50" event if you look through this nice archive: http://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2016-2017&event=A
  4. The high ZDR at >5 kft indicates a pretty strong updraft capable of lofting big rain drops. If you look at the higher tilts, that enhanced ZDR is still present just above the melting layer so in some ways it is similar to a ZDR column in a severe thunderstorm. KDP is also enhanced there as well.
  5. Could definitely be a kind of "chicken or egg" effect.
  6. It could, several previous studies mentioned in this paper (http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00349.1) suggest that an outer eyewall can reduce the outflow region of the inner eyewall and thus reduce convection in the inner eyewall. This process has been linked to eyewall replacement cycles. In any case, I think it is important to note that intensification is generally easier when there is a single, highly organized eyewall. If you look at the radar image below, you can see that the inner eyewall is still a bit ragged and surrounded by a secondary eyewall.
  7. Yeah the greatest low-level convergence is to the WNW along the coastline due to frictional contrast between the land and ocean. That effect would seem to favor a continued short-term hugging of the coast. You can see in the surface obs and radar plot below that there is some relatively dry air (73F dew points) over southeast Cuba. The closer surface stations may have malfunctioned, but we can probably expect that dew points closer to Irma's center are comparable, especially given the downslope flow off the hills in central Cuba. It will be interesting to see how quickly the center of circulation can move away from the coast and get more favorable latent heat transport into the storm.
  8. FYI, Amazon Web Services hosts archived and live GOES-16 data (in netCDF format). I'm still playing around with the data but was able to make some plots of Irma from the full-disk imagery. Here's the link describing how to access the data: https://aws.amazon.com/public-datasets/goes/
  9. ZCZC MIATCUAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Jose Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1000 AM AST Fri Sep 08 2017 ...HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS JOSE IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that the maximum sustained winds in Jose have increased to near 150 mph (240 km/h), making Jose an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane. This intensity change will be reflected in the upcoming 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC) advisory. SUMMARY OF 1000 AM AST...1400 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 56.9W ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES $$ Forecaster Zelinsky NNNN
  10. Part of the impact of Cuba (and land in general) though is a decrease in the sensible and particularly latent heat flux into the storm inflow. Land surfaces are much less efficient at transferring latent heat to the air above compared to a turbulent sea surface.
  11. Angular momentum is defined as the cross product of position (relative to the rotational center) and the linear momentum, which in the case of atmospheric motion is given per mass as the velocity. So for the same wind speed, a hurricane has greater angular momentum than a tornado because the distance from the maximum winds to the rotational center is greater in a hurricane than in a tornado.
  12. Keep in mind that the average NHC track forecast error is > 100 nm for a 96-hour forecast. It's still too early to have that much confidence in Irma making landfall in such a specific region.
  13. Such high momentum makes things quite inertially stable. Maybe that stability has reduced the radial motion of the inner and outer eyewalls?
  14. 869 mb/230 mph/