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About heavy_wx

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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    State College, PA

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  1. Was just about to post this...freakishly warm stretch this week. It will also be the only time we have recorded two 70F+ temperatures in February.
  2. Is it really "paying the price" if you want it to happen? But I agree that snow is still quite common in March, especially in central and northern PA.
  3. It would be amazing if Albany ended up with more snow than Buffalo. My family in Albany still has over a foot of snow on the ground.
  4. I'm not sure I see that much hatred towards Michigan from PSU fans. OSU is another story...
  5. Lol, I think you nailed it!
  6. https://centre.weatherstem.com/beaverstadium I think these stations are pretty accurate, but there was just a 65 mph gust reported with 52 mph sustained wind here!
  7. Yeah mid 50s and sun here, feels great!
  8. Temperatures here increased 9F in the last hour from 39F to 48F.
  9. Another run of the mill blizzard up there lol.
  10. Measured about 6.5" on the grass this morning here.
  11. There's a pretty noticeable dendritic growth signature in the dual-pol variables from KCCX. You can see the enhanced KDP and ZDR to the northwest of the radar, indicating a large number of wide, thin plate-like crystals. The positioning of the KDP maximum near the heaviest reflectivity band makes sense given the more favorable lift within the band.
  12. We have a dusting here with small snow particles falling. We'll have to wait until we get into the stronger mid-level forcing and lift in the dendritic growth zone to see larger aggregates and better accumulation.
  13. Mostly snow here now, but a lot of compact, partially melted aggregates.
  14. Mesoscale Discussion 0162 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0840 PM CST Wed Feb 08 2017 Areas affected...Southeast OH...western PA...northern WV panhandle Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 090240Z - 090645Z SUMMARY...A band of moderate to occasionally heavy snow is expected to develop across the region over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Current regional radar imagery and surface observations show an area of moderate snow moving across central and western OH, while areas farther south (southern OH and western WV) are still mostly rain. Observational trends and current guidance suggest this broad area of precipitation will continue eastward/northeastward into southeast OH, western PA, and the northern WV panhandle. Precipitation intensity is also expected to increase as low and mid-level frontogenesis strengthens in response to overall maturation of the mid-level cyclone. As a result, a band of moderate to occasionally heavy snowfall is expected to develop across the region over the next few hours. Snowfall rates over an inch an hour with brief/localized instances of 2 inch per hour possible. ..Mosier.. 02/09/2017 You can see the 850-700 mb frontogenesis maximum the MD refers to already over southern OH/far western PA. It's associated with the secondary circulations of the jet streaks to the north and south.
  15. Here is a BUFKIT profile for KLNS from the 00z 4K NAM. The white line shows negative omega (upward vertical motion) from 900 mb and up. The model actually has ice supersatured conditions and significant upward motion between 750-450 mb. Those conditions, especially at colder temperatures favor the nucleation of new ice crystals. Therefore, we would expect a large number of ice particles in supersatured conditions to grow as the fall from the coldest temperatures where they were nucleated to the warmer temperatures where the will continue to grow. With the above type of profile, ice crystals will experience a fair amount of growth between -20 and -10 degrees C; you can see that the maximum in vertical motion happens to be between 650-550 mb, where temperatures are within this range. This temperature range favors plate-like/dendritic crystal growth, and these crystals tend to collect into low-density aggregates, increasing the snow-liquid ratio. However, ice crystal growth below 650 mb may be more columnar, which could increase the density of the snow aggregates and decreases the snow-liquid ratio. Also, I would probably expect at least some riming with this degree of saturation between 800-650 mb and that may also increase the density of snow at the ground. You can also see that temperatures near 750 mb are only a few degrees C below freezing, favoring increased sticking of aggregates together and maybe also higher snowflakes. Overall, I think we should see some pretty large aggregates with both some dendritic growth aloft and efficient collection of ice crystals into aggregates. Of course the high density paste will generally stick around longer...