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About heavy_wx

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    State College, PA

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  1. Central PA - December 2017

    Those maps are often misleading. For example, the one posted above includes a good amount of sleet at 10:1 ratio in the snowfall total. Not to mention that deterministic snowstorm predictions 10 days out almost never verify. I mean the pattern is going to be synoptically favorable for winter precipitation, but there is way too much uncertainty at this time to get anything (other than entertainment value) out of those snow maps.
  2. Central PA - December 2017

    Some flurries out there this morning.
  3. Central PA - December 2017

    KH waves are beautiful! Here's a particularly dramatic example from Alabama a few years ago: Basically they form when there is a vertical gradient in wind shear and/or temperature. A small, random disturbance can then grow to produce the waves; these waves are visible to us if the temperature and/or shear gradients occur near the tops of clouds, as the cloud basically traces out the waves. They're actually fairly common on fair-weather days after a cold frontal passage if you look out for them.
  4. Central PA - December 2017

    Still snowing here with modestly reduced visibility. Mostly wet surfaces out there with decent-sized melting aggregates.
  5. Central PA - December 2017

    Light snow here now.
  6. Central PA - December 2017

    We had some brief melting sleet here as well.
  7. And we begin

    Yeah, correlations are pretty meaningless without rigorous statistical tests to determine the likelihood that such an outcome is distinguishable from random chance. Crudely, if you look at griteater's SAI performance evaluation for the last 19 years, 11/19 times positive SAI has occurred with negative AO. That seems like an outcome totally consistent with random chance, and therefore implies minimal dependence of the winter AO on SAI.
  8. Central PA - December 2017

    52/36 and calm right now. It wouldn't surprise me to see some frost here tomorrow morning.
  9. Fall Banter & General Discussion/Observations

    Around 6:30. Once they posted that they had Doubleganger, people freaked out. Luckily I was still able to pick up some.
  10. Fall Banter & General Discussion/Observations

    I drove to the Cape from PA today; low 80s and sun until hitting eastern CT. Then it clouded up to light/moderate rain down 495 and route 6. Of course I had to stop at Tree House being on the way and just off of I-84.
  11. Upstate/Eastern New York

    I think that's a bit generous. There are quite a few years where the Tug Hill doesn't see a 50" event if you look through this nice archive: http://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2016-2017&event=A
  12. Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

    The high ZDR at >5 kft indicates a pretty strong updraft capable of lofting big rain drops. If you look at the higher tilts, that enhanced ZDR is still present just above the melting layer so in some ways it is similar to a ZDR column in a severe thunderstorm. KDP is also enhanced there as well.
  13. Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

    Could definitely be a kind of "chicken or egg" effect.
  14. Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

    It could, several previous studies mentioned in this paper (http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00349.1) suggest that an outer eyewall can reduce the outflow region of the inner eyewall and thus reduce convection in the inner eyewall. This process has been linked to eyewall replacement cycles. In any case, I think it is important to note that intensification is generally easier when there is a single, highly organized eyewall. If you look at the radar image below, you can see that the inner eyewall is still a bit ragged and surrounded by a secondary eyewall.