January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[bncho]

GFS AI is going to be less icy.. otherwise IDK

[NorthArlington101]

GFS AI is gonna be a lot colder for us this go

Getting whalloped at 138

[Disc]

AIGFS looks fine, if not better. Shouldn't cut as much, if at all. That favors less crappy mixed precip. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Where is randy?

GFS thru 96 little farther east with the Baja ull and confluence nudge northern. Sould be a bit.less suppressed, not surprising

[stormtracker]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Getting whalloped at 138

Pics or it didn't happen

[bncho]

AI GFS more breathing room, no ice issues whatsoever. Good run!

[Ralph Wiggum]

AI slight bump.to gfs and vice versa. Getting in the middle perhaps.

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Pics or it didn't happen

No mixing in sight 

[stormtracker]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Where is randy?

GFS thru 96 little farther east with the Baja ull and confluence nudge northern. Sould be a bit.less suppressed, not surprising

I'm here Amigo.  Just don't see anything super noteworthy to report.   Trying to cut down on the cross pbps

[Ralph Wiggum]

That was a bigger bump S.on the AI than I thought. This one has it sights set on the MA.

[bncho]

The AI-GFS is like 8-12" of snow for us with no mixing issues whatsoever. Hell yeah baby.

[SnowenOutThere]

Physics based GFS has the SW a bit more east and less confluence in front. Generally seems to moving in the right direction but need to see what happens in the next 20 hours.

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

The AI-GFS is like 8-12" of snow for us with no mixing issues whatsoever. Hell yeah baby.

The resident UVA poster approves of this change 

[NorthArlington101]

Wasn’t a clean phase. AIGFS could’ve smoked us even more. Love where we stand right now. Could always change my mind in an hour 

[stormtracker]

SFC wise, GFS is about the same vs 6z so far...but does look just a tiny bit less suppressed

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Wasn’t a clean phase. AIGFS could’ve smoked us even more. Love where we stand right now. Could always change my mind in an hour 

What got in the way of a clean phase?

[stormtracker]

Baja low a little more east but can't tell if it's gonna do the sit and spin or move out

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

What got in the way of a clean phase?

Would defer to someone else to make sure I’m not crazy. I think phases are largely just timing based and this was a bit out of sync. Out of sync and 8-12” is ok with me though 

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Baja low a little more east but can't tell if it's gonna do the sit and spin or move out

We don't have the same piece of NS coming down to help lift it out of the SW that the Euro has. I doubt we get a similar evolution to our big hits though an improvement from its own baseline is possible.

[87storms]

Suppression is the greatest concern for this storm. I don’t see any possibility of it cutting. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if this ends up a lower mid-Atlantic simply because of the overpowering NS for what seems like years at this point. My hope is that we get enough of a nudge north up to gametime to get in on a few inches here…though I absolutely do not expect to be in the bullseye on this with the way the southern stream wave gets sheared out.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Baja low a little more east but can't tell if it's gonna do the sit and spin or move out

Every run it shifts more east the better chance it gets pushed out so that’s a good trend right there. 

[Eskimo Joe]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

No mixing in sight 

It's absolutely beautiful. CAD Signature all the way to interior South Carolina, moisture laden storm, banana high from Quebec down to Texas. This is perfect.

[stormtracker]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Every run it shifts more east the better chance it gets pushed out so that’s a good trend right there. 

It's definitely and noticeable more easter than 6z....it's a better look..BUT PLEASE nobody get excited, lol...I'm not implying anything great here...yet

[SnowenOutThere]

Next 20 hours determines if the GFS can pull through. The SW is so close to ejecting east and we need the bit of energy north of it to help it instead of cut it off

[stormtracker]

Regardless of what happens (and we still could get skunked), this is an improved run

[EstorilM]

2 hours ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

You’d be surprised how quickly this can all trend north and we end up with cold rain. 

Perhaps the precip shield, but I'd be comfortable locking in this cold. I mean most models have almost a week of single-digit lows; you could have models swing +15 degrees and it would still wouldn't even be "marginal" yet. 

[NorthArlington101]

Maybe I shouldn’t say this but in a side Twitter group chat Tomer Berg just called this a mix of Jonas (2016) and Feb 2010.

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It's absolutely beautiful. CAD Signature all the way to interior South Carolina, moisture laden storm, banana high from Quebec down to Texas. This is perfect.

Yep cold smoke. Especially for the NW crew. Might not get the max precip stripe. But we get the powder. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It's absolutely beautiful. CAD Signature all the way to interior South Carolina, moisture laden storm, banana high from Quebec down to Texas. This is perfect.

Agreed. 12z is congrats to this sub and even part of the SE. Steady as she goes.

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Next 20 hours determines if the GFS can pull through. The SW is so close to ejecting east and we need the bit of energy north of it to help it instead of cut it off

We are SO CLOSE. Regardless of what happens this run has been a major improvement over 6z