January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[nw baltimore wx]

20 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Slow mover

It should be. No where to go.

[bncho]

GFS is going to try and tee up another hit. Thermals TBD

[DDweatherman]

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

This is about as close to the snowfall forecasts before 2/6/10 as you'll ever see.

Exactly what I said… 

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

Never safe from Ji 

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

If a significant snowstorm is in the offing the 9th is probably the one. Signal has been there on the ens means and h5 has that look in the HL with the +height anomalies moving west into Baffin.

Its been more impressive on the EPS-

[Scraff]

Goofus went SHLABAM!  Called it. I had that something’s about to pop feeling, which is exactly why the beers were cracked at the start of the run.

Okay okay… fine… they were cracked at lunch. BUT STILL. Premonition beer is a thing. Cheers! 

[Ralph Wiggum]

29 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Get a room you 2

[nj2va]

13 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Gives us 11” or so? I’d take that right now. Idc if south of us gets 20”. But also what’s the chances the storm actually happens? Guess we will find out. 

You must be a blast at a party 

[Interstate]

Lock it up

[pazzo83]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

You must be a blast at a party 

"well guys, have we considered the worst possible outcome though?"

[AlexD1990]

Pretty much final 

Happy birthday to meeee(I think, I'm just off the edge of the map lol)

Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk

[T. August]

How early was 2/6/10 depicted? 8 days?

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

You must be a blast at a party 

Real parties, not fake ones 

If this becomes a legit threat then let’s ride. 

[Amped]

December 2009 repeat. 

[bncho]

the ending wave on the 18z GFS would be a cold rainstorm for most.

[T. August]

Just now, bncho said:

the ending wave on the 18z GFS is a cold rainstorm for most.

Buncho we have 6 hours to enjoy this. Go back to hr246.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

the ending wave on the 18z GFS is a cold rainstorm for most.

Thank god the 384hr gfs is always correct. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

I will go on record as saying there is actually a bit more upside possible still with this one wrt the NAO region still showing some ridging and blockiness. Anyone saying I need to show more optimism, well, there ya go.

[TSSN+]

18z euro ai has the storm.  But it’s well off the coast. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Amped said:

December 2009 repeat. 

Funny enough I think that was on a little of analogs somebody shared yesterday about for this window.

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, T. August said:

Buncho we have 6 hours to enjoy this. Go back to hr246.

This actually may be a great time to take a break and come back on Friday, lol

[TSSN+]

The next bad gfs run and…

 

[IronTy]

[TSSN+]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

This actually may be a great time to take a break and come back on Friday, lol

If only had that remote on the movie Click. Could tell it to fast foward to next snow storm. But that may back fire and skip ahead a few years lol. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

This actually may be a great time to take a break and come back on Friday, lol

Very striking similarities. I personally was praying for the nao ridge to split just enough to allow for a weakness in the flow for it to be drawn a bit more north. It happened.

Crazy to look at the gfs op h5 and see essentially the same damn thing. This is going to be stressful tracking for many. Potential is there, keep expectations tempered for now.

[jayyy]

Very striking similarities. I personally was praying for the nao ridge to split just enough to allow for a weakness in the flow for it to be drawn a bit more north. It happened.
Crazy to look at the gfs op h5 and see essentially the same damn thing. This is going to be stressful tracking for many. Potential is there, keep expectations tempered for now.

Ji-bus answered your prayers

[Solution Man]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Very striking similarities. I personally eas praying for the nao ridge to split just enough to allow for a weak ess in the flow furniture to be drawn a bit more north. It happened.

Crazy to look at the gfs op h5 and see essentially the same damn thing. This is going to be stressful tracking for many. Potential is there, keep expectations tempered for now.

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Wait about 12 hours.  I’ve been checking in here and there and there have been no less than 27 mood changes between 0z and 12z. 

Thats why I qualified it with the words “right now.”

You think I haven’t been at this shit with the rest of you for like 20 years? I know how to cover my ass…

[mitchnick]

Gefs definitely likes the period too.

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Gefs definitely likes the period too.

Can’t ask for too much more at range