Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[SACRUS]

Just now, bluewave said:

I believe this would be a first for the GFS being the most tucked in near the coast among the other globals and being correct. The NAM has done it numerous times. But the only other big GFS coup was being more east in January 2015.

 

yeah you would almost expect to the the GEM (GGEM and RGEM) so amped by model biases. Its almost as if in an otherwise typical scenario to be concerned of rain/miz - the gfs is to se/its coming nw.  But not here.

[TriPol]

The GFS just out-NAM'd the NAM!

[SACRUS]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

2/20 18z Summary

 

Total QPF NYC 2/22 - 2/23-24

 

SFRE F: 1.0
NAM: 2.3
RGEM: 0.6
ICON: 1.2
GFS AI AIGFS:  1.5
GFS: 2.2

Updated

[NJwx85]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The tree damage is going to be profound

The wind isn't going to help things. Even the GFS has sustained winds of 20-30kts well inland Sunday night.

 

[MANDA]

8 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Not as wet as you think (verbatim). 

Said this earlier.  Going to be better than 10:1 ratios at times during this storm.  Assuming things progress as currently indicated.  You can get some high ratio snows in these deformation bands.  Has much more to do with temps in the column and not just surface temperatures which at the peak of the storm should be in the mid to upper 20's.  Again, assuming everything stays on track as indicated.

 

[EastonSN+]

Potentially historic:

GFS

NAM

To a little lesser extent GFS AI but still a biggie.

Heavy:

RGEM

Moderate to heavy:

ICON.

EURO will be interesting to see where it falls.

[ForestHillWx]

Could see the GFS was going for the full phase since 06z this morning. 

The vibes are good in here; we deserve this. Even warlock is slowly coming on board….

 

[NJwx85]

Just to jump on the wind potential again, no inversion so the stronger gusts should mix down well

 

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

yeah you would almost expect to the the GEM (GGEM and RGEM) so amped by model biases. Its almost as if in an otherwise typical scenario to be concerned of rain/miz - the gfs is to se/its coming nw.  But not here.

Even the AI GFS is further east than the OP with a slightly slower capture and negative tilt.

 

[nycwinter]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Just to jump on the wind potential again, no inversion so the stronger gusts should mix down well

 

perfect rack for nyc to be in heavy snowbanding with no dry slot..

[EastonSN+]

Lets see if the GEFS is even more tucked.

[SnoSki14]

If only it started tomorrow afternoon. Another harrowing day of model runs before the whole picture comes together 

[qg_omega]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Even the AI GFS is further east than the OP with a slightly slower capture and negative tilt.

 

Ai EPS not looking good

[MANDA]

10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Just to jump on the wind potential again, no inversion so the stronger gusts should mix down well

 

Normally I'd like to see the 850 low a little further west to nail interior NJ.  The fact this is bombing as it goes by will help offset that somewhat eastward displacement.  850 low as shown is text book material for NJ coast, up across NE NJ, NYC and LI.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Lets see if the GEFS is even more tucked.

It is

[winterwarlock]

[MJO812]

Just now, qg_omega said:

Ai EPS not looking good

Lol

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Even the AI GFS is further east than the OP with a slightly slower capture and negative tilt.

 

Barely

Still has alot of snow.  Gefs is coming west.

[EastonSN+]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Lol

Is he serious?

[KeithB]

12 minutes ago, wxman said:

And what's to say it's done trending. Each runs been adding like six inches area wide!

Yes....the GFS tends to suppress these types of setups a bit...so it may even improve!

[Brian5671]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Is he serious?

it has a slightly slower phase and capture like bluewave says but who cares

[EasternLI]

[Stormlover74]

Ukie improved

[Wxbear25]

Is the 18z AI EURO even out yet?

[MJO812]

Gefs slightly west 

[MJO812]

Just now, Wxbear25 said:

Is the 18z AI EURO even out yet?

615

[SnoSki14]

GEFS look really good 

[Wxbear25]

Just now, MJO812 said:

615

That’s what I thought, I saw reference to it not being good and did a double take, thanks Ant

[WeatherGeek2025]

[mob1]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Easy now...