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KeithB

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Everything posted by KeithB

  1. KeithB
    Just measured exactly 9 inches on my deck. Central Rockland County
  2. KeithB
    Im a nervous wreck about it. That said, all the other models on the same page (ish) does carry more weight then the EURO alone on an island. But I am scared as the EURO is arguably the best of them all
  3. KeithB
    I totally agree with you. Many people on here love to rail against TWC as they used to be awful...and due to their built in biases about what it used to be, are unwillingly to accept their improvements
  4. KeithB
    Would be something if this storm winds up suppressed
  5. KeithB
    GOGOGO
  6. KeithB
    2.6 inches on the ground and snowing moderately in central rockland county. How am I supposed to measure this exactly as to avoid packing? Do I wait for let's say 3 inches, and then clear it, and then start anew and just add it?
  7. KeithB
    Soon!
  8. KeithB
    I have storm chased before....but personally, I would wait until an 18+ type storm is gonna hit the chase area. I've done Monticello, Albany, North Conway NH, and western Mass. But I recommend a hotel and not your car
  9. KeithB
    And it was also following every run of every model improving from their previous run...and the first one up of the 12z suite. So at that moment in time, although likely overblown, seemed to be an additional indicator of much more improvement
  10. KeithB
    Well...ever since the crappy 00z GFS run last night, every model run of every model since then, has showed continued improvement
  11. KeithB
    I think this is spot on. as much as I am hoping Rockland county sees, let's say 8+ (and yes, that chance is in play), in reality, it's very high % going to be exactly as you just stated
  12. KeithB
    How good? and how is the 12z NAM looking?
  13. KeithB
    I bet he always thinks the stock markets going to go down too I know these pessimistic types
  14. KeithB
    I think the Euro is considered the #1. Would that be correct? That said, the Euro (as per what Don explained/posted a few posts back)...I suppose isn't spitting out as much snow as we think it is
  15. KeithB
    WOW. Another homerun from the euro!
  16. KeithB
    Yea. I kind of feel the 0z euro holding sort of a life or death thing now. I've seen this movie before, and if we lose the euro tonight, it's pretty much over
  17. KeithB
    WOWO. It certainly did! GOGOGO
  18. KeithB
    Yes. You are right. We certainly have a shot! But you know the routine, there is a real good shot that by Sunday's model runs, our NYC metro area, and the nearby suburbs within 25 miles either direction is looking at a very frustrating miss. It's starting to look like a near certainty that some area/areas within 100 miles from us is going to get absolutely bombed with 18+ inches. Don't ya think? And yes, it's still in play that that area can still be in our areas
  19. KeithB
    Wow. Maybe this trip that I just ranted about taking will be much closer then a 2:15 drive. Might be more like 30 minutes. lol. Or maybe there is a miracle of god and Rockland County actually hits a big snowstorm and I can stay home!
  20. KeithB
    Same routine all winter. It's like being in a groundhog day movie nightmare. I honestly cannot take it anymore, and Monday afternoon, I am probably going to take a drive and get a hotel in a favored area to our north that looks to be in the 12 to 24 inch band. I'll probably take a walk through it, and go for a showshoe hike somewhere in it (I did this for a 2018 big snowstorm in North Conway NH). Went snowshoe hiking Champney Falls off the Kancamagus highway). It was amazing! I highly recommend this trip, and anywhere in general travelling for a storm if your time/job/family situation allows. Happily, this one looks to be much less travelling. Looks like something in western Massachusetts in the Berkshires which I am sure has some fantastic spots. And if the bullseye winds up being southern Vermont, or Western Connecticut, I am sure those areas will have a great spot for this adventure too. Should be a 2:15 drive at worst. I cannot keep dealing with these same pathetic outcomes on these, "events" that our areas are experiencing. Sitting here typing this as I hear the moderate rain fall outside. It's sickening
  21. KeithB
    What is going on that basically every storm underperforms in the same fashion. If the model consensus says snow going to rain, we get the changeover quicker then the models thought....and if it's rain going to snow, the changeover takes longer, or is further NW, and we also get less snow then model consensus. Is this a part of a global warming phenomenon that the computer models haven't quite resolved yet? How can the same thing happen such a large percentage of the time and in the same fashion?
  22. KeithB
    And even when the snow is on the ground they still might not believe it. It'll feel like a dream the way this winter is going.
  23. KeithB
    Great post!
  24. KeithB
    I am starting to think we can....and I am also starting to think about moving. This lack of snow is way too aggravating
  25. KeithB
    Yea. Long term weather predicting couldn't be worse. It's far better to predict "historical averages", in a forecast 30 days out for example, then what any computer data is outputting. That said, in a changing climate, historical averages can be pretty erroneous too. And shorter term historical averages doesn't really work either, as the sample needs to be somewhat large.
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