Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[MANDA]

4 minutes ago, David-LI said:

A close in NAM-MING right there.

[EastonSN+]

You always have to get NAMD at least once when tracking a big one.

[MJO812]

[Snowlover11]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Some of the parking lot piles will still be around in May after this lol. 

Truth, at my job the piles are still 10-12 feet high.

[SACRUS]

From the low 30s to the upper 20s in the height of the storm NE-NJ/NYC (27)

[SnoSki14]

The NAM would be a verified blizzard. It has sustained winds of 30-40 mph with gusts of 60+ pretty far inland. 

[wxman]

Pretty consistent bumps west.  If this continues we are looking at an all time great.  

[David-LI]

Probably 12:1 ratio with those mid levels temps

[SACRUS]

 

The stroofle is runing (ICON)

[TriPol]

2 minutes ago, njwx7 said:

It'll be breezy for sure.

 

NWS should upgrade Long Island to Blizzard Watches/Warnings imho.

[RockawayRowdies]

Weather gurus..
The Mrs has work Sunday night starting 10:30 PM in Pompton Plains NJ area. When is this expected to start? How 

[Snowlover11]

About 40-48 hrs away from this beginning and the gfs and nam are porn worthy! What could go wrong?

[Tatamy]

Have to love the NAM.  So entertaining.  We’ve gone from this at 06z to close to 30” in spots in our area in 2 runs.  I think it’s outdone itself.

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, David-LI said:

Probably 12:1 ratio with those mid levels temps

Just about the entire forum is 2"+ of liquid and the deformation banding is insane. Anyone under that band will get 2-4" per hour for several hours.

[Metasequoia]

18Z NAM looks a lot like much of  WeatherGeek2025's weather porn.

[Snowlover11]

Just now, RockawayRowdies said:

Weather gurus..
The Mrs has work Sunday night starting 10:30 PM in Pompton Plains NJ area. When is this expected to start? How 

Yeah she’s screwed(so am I) I work at 11pm but leave around 10:15. It’s expected to late morning/late afternoon sunday

[NJwx85]

For this to be a big storm, we had to get at least one insane NAM run. If it looked more like the Euro I would have been worried. Now have to hope the GFS holds.

[MANDA]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

Just about the entire forum is 2"+ of liquid and the deformation banding is insane. Anyone under that band will get 2-4" per hour for several hours.

Yes and anyone to the west of the banding will be less than satisfied with all the sinking going on.

[David-LI]

NAM verbatim is Blizzard warning criteria

[NJwx85]

Just now, MANDA said:

Yes and anyone to the west of the banding will be less than satisfied with all the sinking going on.

I think, could be wrong, that the NW cutoff will be less because this isn't a true Miller A. The inverted trough is still a bit of a wild card.

[weatherpruf]

7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Some of the parking lot piles will still be around in May after this lol. 

they were going to be anyway.....

[Tatamy]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

For this to be a big storm, we had to get at least one insane NAM run. If it looked more like the Euro I would have been worried. Now have to hope the GFS holds.

I think we’ve had two today.

[RockawayRowdies]

3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Yeah she’s screwed(so am I) I work at 11pm but leave around 10:15. It’s expected to late morning/late afternoon sunday

great. Hospital jobs.. 
I guess I'll keep an eye on nam/gfs/euro/nbm/hrrr and based on what it looks like Sunday morning just tell her to leave earlier and chill at the hospital for a bit.

[mob1]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

For this to be a big storm, we had to get at least one insane NAM run. If it looked more like the Euro I would have been worried. Now have to hope the GFS holds.

Easy come, easy go

This better materialize, I can't waste this euphoric feeling on digital snow. 

[nycwinter]

we finally got rid of the snow and salt covering the streets and sidewalks i spoke to soon..

[snywx]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I think, could be wrong, that the NW cutoff will be less because this isn't a true Miller A. The inverted trough is still a bit of a wild card.

Yeah there is a legit possiblity some areas up here do as well as those along the coast. There’s always that secondary banding that sets up plus that IVT is a wildcard 

[Mr. T.]

Figured no one posted the KU yet for the 18z nam.

Edit: I'm still going to leave it here so many posts coming at once I didn't see it a page back.

[MJO812]

Icon is coming in more phased also

[Tatamy]

1 minute ago, snywx said:

Yeah there is a legit possiblity some areas up here do as well as those along the coast. There’s always that secondary banding that sets up plus that IVT is a wildcard 

That deform band does look interesting.

[TJW014]