Major Hurricane Melissa - 903mb - 175mph

[LP08]

8 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Oh man…waiting for drop

Looks like 907 from the sonde.

[WxWatcher007]

Anything close to that extrapolated minimum pressure on a dropsonde would be an impressive drop considering the relatively steady state pressures we’ve seen so far. 

[Kevin Reilly]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Anything close to that extrapolated minimum pressure on a dropsonde would be an impressive drop considering the relatively steady state pressures we’ve seen so far. 

Wobbling around now looks like a slight drift east so it's about to turn abruptly northward definitely has hit that brick wall coming in from the west.  Certainly, does look the best it has so gotta be peaking as we speak.  Western Jamaica is in real danger!

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Looks like 907 from the sonde.

Thanks. 912–>910–>907 is pretty substantive.

[Coach McGuirk]

10 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Hurricane Josh is in Jamaica shooting for another eyewall penetration.

He is usually good.  I think he got his arm cut bad during a cat-5 in Taiwan. 

[Floydbuster]

Melissa looks like it strengthened a bit the last few hours. Incredible. 

[JonClaw]

For reference, per Wiki:

[NJwx85]

-80c cloud tops have now completely wrapped around the entire CDO. It’s definitively a higher end Cat 5 at this point.

[Wannabehippie]

AF plane got an extrapolated sea-level pressure of 905.7 mb

[Wannabehippie]

Absolute buzz saw right now.

 

[dan11295]

4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

-80c cloud tops have now completely wrapped around the entire CDO. It’s definitively a higher end Cat 5 at this point.

Just a reminder that  late season storms can show colder cloud tops than normal especially at night compared to earlier season storms. Not that Melissa isn't an intense hurricane, which it is.

[TriPol]

Watching horrible commentary about a wobble being “The hurricane is now moving east.” People have no idea how hurricanes like this behave.

[TriPol]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

-80c cloud tops have now completely wrapped around the entire CDO. It’s definitively a higher end Cat 5 at this point.

There is no such thing as a “higher end” category 5. It can go to 1000 mph and still not be “higher end.”

[allgame830]

How has Melissa avoided an ERC for like 3 days now? Someone explain that to me 

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, TriPol said:

There is no such thing as a “higher end” category 5. It can go to 1000 mph and still not be “higher end.”

Not officially, but there is certainly a tangible difference between a hurricane with 160mph winds and one with 170/180mph winds.

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

How has Melissa avoided an ERC for like 3 days now? Someone explain that to me 

Some claimed it under went a "MERC" this morning where the two eyewalls merged but did not have the typical replacement.  Not sure if thats a real thing or not

[HKY_WX]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Some claimed it under went a "MERC" this morning where the two eyewalls merged but did not have the typical replacement.  Not sure if thats a real thing or not

Twitter BS

[WxSynopsisDavid]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Some claimed it under went a "MERC" this morning where the two eyewalls merged but did not have the typical replacement.  Not sure if thats a real thing or not

It is, “merged eyewall replacement cycle” is what Melissa did yesterday. An MERC does not weaken a hurricane, it instead leads to rapid or explosive intensification. MERC are usually seen with these small, compact high-end canes.

[WxSynopsisDavid]

Just now, HKY_WX said:

Twitter BS

As far as today is concerned, there’s been no ERC or MERC. Yesterday, Melissa underwent an MERC. But I don’t know where those Twitter forecasters come up with the conclusion that it happened again today.

[Floydbuster]

9 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

How has Melissa avoided an ERC for like 3 days now? Someone explain that to me 

Every hurricane is different. I remember in Hurricane Frances back in 2004, she had an eyewall replacement cycle nearly every single day.

[RU848789]

10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Some claimed it under went a "MERC" this morning where the two eyewalls merged but did not have the typical replacement.  Not sure if thats a real thing or not

Appears to be - there's a paper on it with regard to what happened in Irma...

https://x.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1982642835418722602

[WxSynopsisDavid]

12 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

How has Melissa avoided an ERC for like 3 days now? Someone explain that to me 

An ERC is not always a guarantee. If the environment is pristine, the cyclone is healthy, and the cyclone roots in at the surface it takes full advantage of its environment. These scenarios are rare, and a lot of us in this forum never seen it happen until Melissa. When this happens, you don’t get traditional ERC’s. They are MERC’s and they don’t weaken the cyclone: they typically lead to rapid or explosive intensification.

[WxSynopsisDavid]

1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

Appears to be - there's a paper on it with regard to what happened in Irma...

https://x.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1982642835418722602

There are a ton of peer-reviewed articles and the NOAA NHC have held seminars discussing this.

[Interstate]

After being stationary for a bit... Melissa is now moving N/NE

[PennyForYourThoughts]

 

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
8.3 8.5 8.5

[WEATHER53]

3 hours ago, BooneWX said:

I assume you’re talking about height. Those cloud tops are somewhere between 40-50k ft tall. Thicck with two c’s.

It looks almost like a cone and I was trying to think how far laterally it extends 

[NJwx85]

12 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

An ERC is not always a guarantee. If the environment is pristine, the cyclone is healthy, and the cyclone roots in at the surface it takes full advantage of its environment. These scenarios are rare, and a lot of us in this forum never seen it happen until Melissa. When this happens, you don’t get traditional ERC’s. They are MERC’s and they don’t weaken the cyclone: they typically lead to rapid or explosive intensification.

ERC’s and what causes them are still largely unknown.

[MarkO]

It's in a good environment. Usually upwelling will weaken a nearly stationary cyclone, but that's not the case here with the warm waters below the surface. Also, it's currently located where there's a shelf that's less than 100' deep. I think it's called Pedro Bank.

[NJwx85]

9 minutes ago, MarkO said:

It's in a good environment. Usually upwelling will weaken a nearly stationary cyclone, but that's not the case here with the warm waters below the surface. Also, it's currently located where there's a shelf that's less than 100' deep. I think it's called Pedro Bank.

That part of the basin was also running 3-4 degrees C above average. The water there is in the mid to upper 80’s. Pure rocket fuel, which went untapped all season. We knew this would blow up as soon as the shear relaxed. It was a very vigorous wave that made it all the way from Africa and overcame a lot to make it there. The vortex is highly battle tested.

[Joe4alb]

This is just insane.