3/16/26 Severe Weather Event Thread (Moderate Risk) | Latest: 15% TOR, 60% WIND, 5% HAIL

[rjvanals]

If you want fantasy entertainment check out the GFS snowfall forecast for tonight

[Warm Nose]

Very bright here. Temps got knocked down 5 deg when that first line came through but mostly recovered.

[AlexD1990]

15 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

Wonder if Delmarva will be the hot spot today. 

Hard to tell, we have been back in the clouds after a bit of sun earlier.

[mappy]

The northern line really fell apart. Gusty showers. 

[Paleocene]

It's been 98% cloudy in silver spring today with a few peeks of brightness. Looks like the southern line rolling through FFX may be headed towards DC/me.

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

The northern line really fell apart. Gusty showers. 

Not even going to make it to Columbia.  Not sure if that helps or hurts lol

[Pityflakes]

Were there any storm reports from Rd 1?

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, Pityflakes said:

Were there any storm reports from Rd 1?

Several reports starting to come in across Poolesville, Clarksburg, Damascus, Germantown

[Nomz]

This isn't gonna work.

[wasnow215]

23 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

 

22 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

They cut back the risk a good bit. I went from moderate to slight at my work lol. 

No changes in a lot of places including Richmond,. It's good though that you don't have to deal with that at your work.

[hstorm]

4 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

It's been 98% cloudy in silver spring today with a few peeks of brightness. Looks like the southern line rolling through FFX may be headed towards DC/me.

Just a brief heavy downpour in that line (at least here). No wind or anything else besides rain.

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

 

No changes in a lot of places including Richmond,. It's good though that you don't have to deal with that at your work.

Good bit of it cut back from the nw. Don’t worry the moderate is just left to save face but literally there should be no moderate today. Yesterday was a bigger day and was only enhanced. 

[WxUSAF]

Wow just sent code red for OPM and all DC area federal offices 

[MDSnow93]

Just got a nice heavy shower from the 1pm threat. I think southern MoCo and DC jack here

[mattie g]

Still haven’t gotten touched here in Burke. The line is moving NNE and not quite glancing us, though that little “bow” to the south should do the trick.

[MN Transplant]

It is snowing in Birmingham, AL.  This is quite the system.

[SnowenOutThere]

Dropped the warning for the line I was setup for. Don’t even know if I’ll get a shelf 

[Nomz]

I think that tiny bowing segment W of Fredericksburg will probably be the one that finally sweeps through DC. Will probably be marginally severe but whatever.

[arlwx12]

Current Status ((OPM on DC-area offices))

Status: Early Departure -- All Employees Must Depart No Later Than 2:00 PM

Early Departure -- All Employees Must Depart No Later Than 2:00 PM

“Employees of [specified Federal offices at specified locations] are authorized for Early Departure. All employees Must Depart no later than 2:00 pm at which time Federal offices are Closed.”

Telework Employees at the Office will receive weather and safety leave only for the time required to commute home. Once these employees arrive at home, they must complete any remaining portion of the workday by teleworking, taking unscheduled leave (paid or unpaid) or other paid time off, or a combination.

Non-Telework Employees at the Office will be dismissed from their office no later than the final departure time 2:00 pm (as applicable) and will be granted weather and safety leave for the number of hours remaining in their workday.

Telework Employees Performing Telework are expected to continue working and generally may not receive weather and safety leave. They must account for the entire workday by teleworking, taking unscheduled leave (paid or unpaid) or other paid time off, or a combination.

Remote Workers are expected to continue working and generally may not receive weather and safety leave. They must account for the entire workday by working, taking unscheduled leave (paid or unpaid) or other paid time off, or a combination.

Emergency Employees are expected to remain at the worksite unless otherwise directed by their agencies.

Employees Departing the Office Prior to Their Early Departure Time or the Final Departure Time (whichever is applicable) may request unscheduled leave (paid or unpaid) or other paid time off. Such employees will not be granted weather and safety leave for any part of the workday.

Employees on Preapproved Leave (paid or unpaid) or other paid time off—including an employee who has requested unscheduled leave before an early departure policy is announced—generally should continue to be charged leave or other paid time off during the scheduled time and should not receive weather and safety leave.

 

[csnavywx]

Glad I've been downplaying it to all of my customers today. Quite the bust on the way. Hell I might have not downplayed it enough. Sure, there will be some more 50KT reports and a tor or three but I anticipate this probable bust is going to cause some issues later in the season when we do actually get a system with a clean warm sector. And that's pretty likely, imo, given the strong ramp into Nino.

[Eskimo Joe]

6 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Glad I've been downplaying it to all of my customers today. Quite the bust on the way. Hell I might have not downplayed it enough. Sure, there will be some more 50KT reports and a tor or three but I anticipate this probable bust is going to cause some issues later in the season when we do actually get a system with a clean warm sector. And that's pretty likely, imo, given the strong ramp into Nino.

Setups like this stink in this part of the country. 9.9/10 times they bust, then you get the 0.1 time where things go gang busters with meager sunshine. You do a post mortem on all of the events and they look all the same, yet you wonder why this one time we nuts.  

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Area near Fairfax rotating?

[EstorilM]

1 minute ago, csnavywx said:

Glad I've been downplaying it to all of my customers today. Quite the bust on the way. Hell I might have not downplayed it enough. Sure, there will be some more 50KT reports and a tor or three but I anticipate this probable bust is going to cause some issues later in the season when we do actually get a system with a clean warm sector. And that's pretty likely, imo, given the strong ramp into Nino.

I get that vibe as well - I just can't imagine this second round doing much with the conditions I'm looking at through the window.  Isn't this pretty much exactly what the high res guidance was showing late last night? 

[Skywalker03]

Downpour in Rockville.  Not much wind.

[Brianonymous]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Setups like this stink in this part of the country. 9.9/10 times they bust, then you get the 0.1 time where things go gang busters with meager sunshine. You do a post mortem on all of the event and they look all the same, yet you wonder why this one time we nuts.  

That's the part that baffles me. The fear factor behind this one seemed to be turned to 11. It didn't make sense.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Setups like this stink in this part of the country. 9.9/10 times they bust, then you get the 0.1 time where things go gang busters with meager sunshine. You do a post mortem on all of the event and they look all the same, yet you wonder why this one time we nuts.  

Not sure why anyone was thinking this was going to be big after yesterdays runs. Was looking decent Saturday into yesterday morning but by yesterday evening it became apparent it was not looking as serious. 

[csnavywx]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Setups like this stink in this part of the country. 9.9/10 times they bust, then you get the 0.1 time where things go gang busters with meager sunshine. You do a post mortem on all of the event and they look all the same, yet you wonder why this one time we nuts.  

Needs a lot more helicity with this low amount of buoyancy. There's a narrow window this evening before the cold front, but you'd have to stop bombarding the warm sector with this low grade overturning for it to work. This is why capping is so important. You have it or you get this nonsense.

[mappy]

22 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Not even going to make it to Columbia.  Not sure if that helps or hurts lol

Love the nice skinny line that formed. 

[mappy]

Regardless of what happens I am happy dance was cancelled tonight and now I don’t have to taxi anywhere