“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It was too far south with yesterday for awhile too.

Thoughts on euro not fully committing either?

[bristolri_wx]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Reggie still a little east but impressive. 

 

[Mj-pvd]

Anyone got a sled team I can borrow? 

[Masswx]

 

Paste on trees in Plymouth 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, PowderBeard said:

I'm not sure historically but I made the switch about 3 years ago and it runs about 1/3 of most other browsers these days. 

I've also upgraded my home sys and run Windows 11 these days - which I don't like for other reason..ha.  I seem to have less issue with Firefox - which also was pretty bad back in the day.  I may check out Brave and see.   I need to be able to turn off trajectories tho.  And I'll never use Google - so if Brave is affiliated with that engine I'd probably defer.  

[Kitz Craver]

6 minutes ago, Masswx said:

Icon is iconic!

I’m so traumatized by your Dad saying IGONE, this is much better 

[Masswx]

2.21 qpf on Reggie 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Look at that weenie N Wey love

It’s been doing that and I really can’t find a reason why, other than land/sea convergence. But if that was the case, I would expect other models to show that
 

[George001]

41 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Bun me if you must ... but this is a little frustrating seeing these runs get cute with their position fixes in that 48 to 70 hour window overnight.   

This look above, is theoretically more supported than any other guidance I've seen, including the GFS, since 3 days ago frankly. 

It doesn't mean that the low has to come within 40 MI S of Block Island like that ... for the record.  However, there's a leitmotif along this thing's modeling history has lacked commitment to where this thing should be, relative to a few different synoptic arguments, wave signature(s) and mass conservation and stuff.    

I've said multiple times over the years that this pursuit is a game of managing nested anomalies.   We have a -PNA, which principle, is an anomaly; inside which we have a positive relative PNA burst, also an anomaly relative to the former.   Inside which hosts this anomalous event, inside of which ... the idiosyncrasies of track and storm morphology dictates a pedestrian showing N-W of roughly HFD-BOS ... while limiting the ferocity SE of that line.  The inner most nested anomaly has the surface preferential to a SE position within 'the cone' - so to speak. 

It's annoying.   Be that as it may ... 

But - as an example - if we look at 42 hour surface featuring of the 06z Euro operational, there is low position ~ 75 to 100 MI E of the Va Capes.  At that time the best quasi-geostrophic forcing is not there.  It's WNW around the Ches. Bay side of the Del Marva stinger.   But this is like teeing off in Golf (metaphor), where you swore you swung a great stroke but you hit the ball 1 deg off the sweet spot and that tiny error ends up being an unsavory fairway fringe lie by the time the ball gets 300 yds down stream.     Just a knee jerk guess ... the models are ending up mid way between the best deep layer forcing, and what may be irresistible ...ultimately real mad mad convective instability out there.    

A lot of this is over my head as a non met and more of a causal snow weenie (especially in such a complex setup like this) so I would like to learn more about your process. From what I understand you don’t just look at QPF, storm track, 500mb You see the entire system, notice patterns (eg your Miami rule, phase heavy bias in the mid range, teleconnections, anticipating where the correction vector is pointed based on the ensemble clustering etc) and lean on that pattern recognition rather than ripping and reading QPF and kuchera like people do on Twitter. It’s an old school approach similar to another met I follow, Bernie Rayno. We need more of this and less QPF ripping from twitterologists. Feel free to tweak or correct parts of this that are off base.

About your game of managing nested anomalies idea, I want to make sure I really understand this right. Would things like an extreme arctic airmass, intense thermal gradient, rapid phase shift for NAO, ENSO mismatch (La Nina surface with El Niño subsurface), etc fall into that category? The arctic airmass isn’t as entrenched as it was in the heart of winter, but a 1050ish mb high diving into the Midwest is no joke. Then we have the SE well AN. What about the role that CC as a whole plays in this idea of nested anomalies? On a global scale we are a pocket of cold in a sea of warmth like you mentioned in an earlier post, I’m curious how that ties into this.

 

[bristolri_wx]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

I've also upgraded my home sys and run Windows 11 these days - which I don't like for other reason..ha.  I seem to have less issue with Firefox - which also was pretty bad back in the day.  I may check out Brave and see.   I need to be able to turn off trajectories tho.  And I'll never use Google - so if Brave is affiliated with that engine I'd probably defer.  

Brave does use Chromium, which is the basis for Google Chrome, and is the open source project managed by them.  Other browsers that use Chromium are Microsoft Edge, Brave, Vivaldi, and Opera (to name a few).  Firefox and Safari run separate browser engines...

[MegaMike]

13z NBM is pretty wild.

The mean(!!!) has a large area of 24-30" across the Boston/Providence area (even 30-36"). 

The diagnostic ratios are likely too high considering winds will be strong.

EDIT: for NYC weenies, this is 48hr-snowfall accumulation maxed out for SNE... The totals are higher for the NYC area, but you need an earlier image to capture it better.

[George001]

38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I might be at Brett’s house when it’s over.

Yeah he looks to be ground zero for this one. He was downplaying this all week and is going to get absolutely buried. It’s been a rough stretch in SE Mass so it’s nice that we had things break right this winter. 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Thoughts on euro not fully committing either?

I’m just along for the ride like everyone else at this point. Anyone who thinks they have this figured out is lying. I’d lean consensus considering its track record lately…but yeah, it’s in the back of my mind until it fully caves.

[NorEastermass128]

Any chance my 6pm outbound flight could get canceled tomorrow? I’m guessing not. I expect lots of photos to be posted in the obs thread so I can live vicariously through you all. 

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

D drip aside…That and the euro still makes it a little uneasy to truly be free. 

Agreed... 

despite my campaigning for NW positions in all this, I have also made it clear that SE positions are 'within the cone of uncertainty' as that vamp goes.  I mean they can happen in this. There's compelling reason to see NW ... maybe helluva now-casting opportunity, too, but that doesn't mean things will do that.

Anyway, should the EC/RGEM prevail, it is what it is. Not impossible.  I wills say though, despite the over night runs seemingly halting the NW corrections?   That may have only been a relaxation.  These globals in a minute are going to be interesting to compare against the higher res west corrections we just witnessed. Right? wow.  And the RGEM did in fact just tick NW so.. mm...  it's still in the air a bit . 

[CT Rain]

If this verifies I may never wear clothes again. 

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s been doing that and I really can’t find a reason why, other than land/sea convergence. But if that was the case, I would expect other models to show that
 

Yeah that’s the only thing I see too. It even shows a little kink in the isobars there. It did a decent job with the Cape Ann norlun a little while back. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

If this verifies I may never wear clothes again. 

On air?

[tiger_deF]

Some of today’s runs have been showing a bit of a dry slot, especially as the storm really cranks up and starts shooting off to sea. That might come down to nowcasting, where it sets up and how early could be the difference between a blockbuster and just a large storm for some areas

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

13z NBM is pretty wild.

The mean(!!!) has a large area of 24-30" across the Boston/Providence area (even 30-36"). 

The diagnostic ratios are likely too high considering winds will be strong.

Dude... ha.  no shit but excluding the SW zones/NY megalopolis, that SNE snow layout is about as close to a twin to 1978 Feb as I've seen.  

This system is no analog but I just find that interesting.  

[Wonkis]

This is classic Walt Drag AFD fodder. He used to get excited about these systems and go into great detail about the dynamics.

I'd saved one of his all-time classics from the Eastern Wx days, but I can't find it (and can't recall the storm)

[TalcottWx]

46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I might be in Brett’s bed when it’s over.

Ok man

[MegaMike]

I'm excited to test my weather application for this event.

Here's what it looks like for Boston (NBM): 

And the HRRR: 

I stole the icons from The Weather Channel 

[MegaMike]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Dude... ha.  no shit but excluding the SW zones/NY megalopolis, that SNE snow layout is about as close to a twin to 1978 Feb as I've seen.  

This system is no analog but I just find that interesting.  

It's so hawt' I can barely contain myself, Tippy!

[ROOSTA]

An event as such is one that changes your perspective. Intregue and interest is mostly leading to the event. NOT THIS ONE

Wanting so bad to experience. One for the record books folks.

[dan11295]

3 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

13z NBM is pretty wild.

The mean(!!!) has a large area of 24-30" across the Boston/Providence area (even 30-36"). 

The diagnostic ratios are likely too high considering winds will be strong.

Not sure I buy numbers that high in Eastern SNE especially NE Mass. Only the 12z ICON comes close to supporting it so far. Main issue is storm has already peaked and has started to fill on guidance by time it has reached the BM. Plus wind will cut down ratios some. As of now somewhere in SE Mass has the best shot of 24" IMHO. 
 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Wonkis said:

This is classic Walt Drag AFD fodder. He used to get excited about these systems and go into great detail about the dynamics.

I'd saved one of his all-time classics from the Eastern Wx days, but I can't find it (and can't recall the storm)

Jan 05 probably?

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

On air?

Green bodypaint everywhere except the 

[SouthCoastMA]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Reggie still a little east but impressive. 

crushes the eastern coastline

[ROOSTA]

I wonder if Walt or Paul still frequent the forum?