Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[Nibor]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Forky thinks a major snowstorm is on the way. We listen when he is bold.

[BoulderWX]

21 minutes ago, Rjay said:

The other models have been coming in more west and wrapped up every run since yesterday's 18z suite.  The gfs could be too close to the coast so I guess only time will tell.

hit the one in the middle... I think the eastern part of this forum to include NYC, LI, much of central and southern jersey will be happy with this one as the heaviest bands contract towards the low.

[NJwx85]

A lot more West leaning members in the GEFS than the previous run. Several are West of the OP.

[Snowlover11]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

where is he?

Gearing up for the historic blizzard.

[495weatherguy]

10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

20 % Crippling Blizzard

70 % 8 -12

30 % 2 -4 inch

This is for me in Union/Northern Middlesex County NJ

Thank you 

[Wxbear25]

3 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

hit the one in the middle... I think the eastern part of this forum to include NYC, LI, much of central and southern jersey will be happy with this one as the heaviest bands contract towards the low.

You have it backwards. As a low begins to occlude, it unwinds and the bands spread away from the low

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

For NYC, specifically Central Park

10 % Above 15 inches

30 % 10 -15 inches

30 % 6 -10 inches

20 % 3 -6 inch

10 % 1 -3 inch

[Freezing Drizzle]

1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

Thanks.  Ignore the point and click when they're at odds with the issued snowfall maps.  They'll update soon.  Also if you go in to the hourly weather graphic it shows 4.3" of snow for Perth Amboy.

My original point got a bit lost. I was only showing what AW and the NWS were telling the public in their (measured/conservative) weather discussions in text/writing. 
The public does not know what we do about maps, etc.

You are right though; they seem to have a standard time forward where they will show inches in writing. Looks like about 60 hours.  For example, still no inches shown in writing for Sunday night for my area.

Ok we're good.

[kat5hurricane]

25 minutes ago, Snowpsycho said:

What storm did the JMA sniff out before any other models. It was a long time ago, can't remember when. Was it 1996?

February 2006

[David-LI]

ABC 7 going with 1-3" for the city , 3-6" eastern Long Island with their noon update.

[MJO812]

Just now, David-LI said:

ABC 7 going with 1-3" for the city , 3-6" eastern Long Island with their noon update.

I told them they are way too low

[kat5hurricane]

Just now, David-LI said:

ABC 7 going with 1-3" for the city , 3-6" eastern Long Island with their noon update.

The news outlets are always late to catch on. I haven't watched them for years because of this.

[Brian5671]

Just now, MJO812 said:

I told them they are way too low

TV is always going to be conservative this far out-by tomorrow different story

[WestBabylonWeather]

What did we all learn this week?

If the GFS is consistent run after run with minor waffling, you may want to listen. I doubted it 

[Brian5671]

Just now, kat5hurricane said:

The news outlets are always late to catch on. I haven't watched them for years because of this.

I can't remember the last time I watched a TV local newscast.  The average age of a viewer must be like 60 these days...

[Freezing Drizzle]

13 minutes ago, David-LI said:

ABC 7 going with 1-3" for the city , 3-6" eastern Long Island with their noon update.

Still measured/conservative amounts. I don't blame them, really.  They are broadcasting to a huge public audience, not to a forum.  They almost always leave room to increase amounts as they look more certain.

[winterwx21]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

I told them they are way too low

I'm sure Lee Goldberg will have higher amounts when he comes on later this afternoon. 

[MJO812]

Just now, winterwx21 said:

I'm sure Lee Goldberg will have higher amounts when he comes on later this afternoon. 

Hes really good.

[MJO812]

Winter storm watches going up for the mid atlantic

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

A lot of you guys are going to owe the GFS a big apology after this storm wrecks us lol

Sent from my SM-F966U1 using Tapatalk

[winterwarlock]

So possibilities...a case could be made for all 3

 

3-6

8-14

12-24

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

What did we all learn this week?
If the GFS is consistent run after run with minor waffling, you may want to listen. I doubted it 

I feel like that goes for really any of the major models. When one model is absolutely locked on to a solution with consistency you have to give it greater consideration.

Sent from my SM-F966U1 using Tapatalk

[Wxbear25]

37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

My only issue with the OP GFS is that the low further east usually becomes the main low like the Canadian and other guidance is showing. 
 

 

 

The issue is how the models are handling that initial piece of energy to hit the coastline, which is the energy that spawns that “eastern low”

The models have continuously trended towards this being more meridionally oriented, and thus more closely involved with the main s/w energy, with the GFS leading the way to this point in that regard

There won’t be an “eastern low” or a “western low”, at least for any extended time there’s going to be one low, and the question is how well the big chunk of energy can rein in that front running stuff

[MJO812]

Just now, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

A lot of you guys are going to owe the GFS a big apology after this storm wrecks us lol

Sent from my SM-F966U1 using Tapatalk
 

I prayed every night for the gfs to be right here.

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Ai gfs wow

That's an HECS like the GFS.  Wow!  Thanks for posting the AIGFS/Weathernext models which TT/Pivotal don't have.  

[kat5hurricane]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

I can't remember the last time I watched a TV local newscast.  The average age of a viewer must be like 60 these days...

I stopped watching them when I started following online forums going back to the AccuWeather/Eastern forums days in the early 2000s a few years before PDII. I always found the weather forums to be more accurate and informative than TV meterologists.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 minute ago, winterwarlock said:

So possibilities...a case could be made for all 3

 

3-6

8-14

12-24

For NYC, specifically Central Park

10 % Above 15 inches

30 % 10 -15 inches

30 % 6 -10 inches

20 % 3 -6 inch

10 % 1 -3 inch

[SleetStormNJ]

1 minute ago, kat5hurricane said:

I stopped watching them when I started following online forums going back to the AccuWeather/Eastern forums days in the early 2000s a few years before PDII. I always found the weather forums to be more accurate and informative than TV meterologists.

March 2001 was the watershed/gamechanger for lot of TV mets.

[weatherpruf]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I can't remember the last time I watched a TV local newscast.  The average age of a viewer must be like 60 these days...

i'm 63 and haven't watched in decades. 60 is young enough to have seen the rise of phones and social media.....

[[email protected]]

2 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

For NYC, specifically Central Park

10 % Above 15 inches

30 % 10 -15 inches

30 % 6 -10 inches

20 % 3 -6 inch

10 % 1 -3 inch

Best winter in 11 years, if we get a blockbuster Monday! This turns into an A winter if it hits!