2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[bncho]

Just now, bncho said:

NAM looks more neg tilted thru hr 42

 

Just now, Interstate said:

Yeah that looks more positivity tilted than the 12Z

which is it

[bncho]

Looks very amped. Like substantially more amped than 6z

[AlexD1990]

great PBP so far guys..

[baltosquid]

Just now, Interstate said:

Yeah that looks more positivity tilted than the 12Z

I actually think it's pretty similar or maybe slightly more negative but maybe my eyes are broken... it's bigger though. But only to the west... way less broad up front and lots more ridging, which should be good. I hope.

[pazzo83]

Just now, AlexD1990 said:

great PBP so far guys..

only the best for our sub

[DMAC98]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

NAM looks more neg tilted thru hr 42

 

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

Yeah that looks more positivity tilted than the 12Z

The duality of man

[TSSN+]

Ok let’s see where this goes 

[Interstate]

Just now, bncho said:

 

which is it

I was looking at H5@39... so you are ahead of me... maybe something switches in 3 hours... and it does

 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

Yeah that looks more positivity tilted than the 12Z

 

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

NAM looks more neg tilted thru hr 42

guys dont post if you dont know what you are talking about

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Looks very amped. Like substantially more amped than 6z

It’s more negative tilt than previous 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Ok let’s see where this goes 

That appears to be much closer to the coast than before.

[baltosquid]

Yeah it is a hair more negative at 42. And the ridging is so clearly better. Don't even have to look at the surface to see it's getting development going much further west... but I did peek at the surface earlier and there were showers/snow in TN/KY.

[bncho]

Just now, Solution Man said:

It’s more negative tilt than previous 

thanks for the confirmation 

[Terpeast]

23 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

This was basically my forecast at WPC, minus 1-2" almost everywhere. 

Edit: To clarify, I am 1-2" HIGHER than Sterling atm, but it's still early and time for adjustments in either direction. 

Your forecast gets me into the warning criteria

[Interstate]

Just now, Ji said:

 

guys dont post if you dont know what you are talking about

We were looking at different hours... that 3 hours made a difference

[MillvilleWx]

8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And I'm guessing where that sets up we won't know until it's happening? Lol

We can have a general idea prior to the storm, but exactly where will be a nowcast and forecast adjustments would happen accordingly. 

[WEATHER53]

It would help greatly if we could put some accumulation down between 7 -10am Sunday.  

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

great PBP so far guys..

Poor Randy is on a flight. If only he were here. 

You have me, though! But that might be a net minus

[bncho]

[Solution Man]

Light snow to the region at 45

[Interstate]

but even at 45 it is not negativity tilted...nor was it on the 12Z

 

[Amped]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Ok let’s see where this goes 

The low is probably hooking over SE Mass this run. 

[Weather Will]

Are you all using 3K or 12k?  Should really start using 3K I think.

[baltosquid]

It has room to amplify but it isn't tilting any faster than 12z, probably because of the trailing wave and it might be a little messy itself. But no change to tilt and better heights is still a good change on balance, of course.

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

 

guys dont post if you dont know what you are talking about

Cut bncho some slack...he got the okay from Randy and is doing a pretty good job overall--but also acknowledged he would make some mistakes. And he's a kid

[Interstate]

H5@48 is almost neutral

[Weather Will]

WB 3K NAM noon Sunday.

[Solution Man]

Mod to heavies in region at 46

[bncho]

Dear @AlexD1990,

I'm writing to inform you that you're getting pummeled.

[EHoffman]

Just now, bncho said:

Dear @AlexD1990,

I'm writing to inform you that you're getting pummeled.

Well isnt that a lovely little panel