Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[SnoSki14]

Really solid trends right now. Will the GFS hold? Even a slight shift would be ok

[nycsnow]

1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Please stop, I'm now begging.

I mean technically the models would verify it for nyc east. Prob to wsw but verbatim if it was tomorrow night blizzard warnings would verify Sunday 

[nycsnow]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Really solid trends right now. Will the GFS hold? Even a slight shift would be ok

Yea slight shift north thanks lol

[Brian5671]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Really solid trends right now. Will the GFS hold? Even a slight shift would be ok

that fact that everything has moved towards it this morning is a good sign

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

I mean technically the models would verify it for nyc east. Prob to wsw but verbatim if it was tomorrow night blizzard warnings would verify Sunday 

I'm not saying it can't occur but he's been saying this for days and should know by now. They can't be posted until late Saturday at the earliest if it is going to occur.

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

still looks like 2/6/10 to me....i remember the dt maps with 8-12 for us, we got close to bupkiss....this just wants to be a south jersey and south event for the time being....however, i'm not seeing all the confluence that happened back then....which some mets thought would not be enough to stop the storm in its tracks...we've seen it happen a few times since....i never like to see the south getting the brunt for us up here; we actually do  a little better when the bulk is north of us. but hey, we'll see.....it is always heart breaking to see those bands stop at mid monmouth or skirt east. but we do not know that yet.....

This system has more latitude to come farther north than the 2/6/2010 blizzard had, though there's a limit to how far north it will come. It will depend on the timing and location of phasing and the timing when the trough goes neutral/negative. I suspect 50 miles is within the realm of possibility, as underscored by spreads between the 25th/75th percentile outcomes. In 2010, there was an overwhelming block that precluded the storm's gaining latitude (AO: -5.205; NAO: -0.985) and locked strong confluence into place. In any case, the area of heaviest snows will probably be focused somewhere from the northern Delmarva across central/southern New Jersey barring some large changes. But it is plausible that warning-level snows could extend into northwest New Jersey/adjacent northeast Pennsylvania, NYC's northern/western suburbs, and the southern half of Connecticut.

[BoulderWX]

2 minutes ago, snywx said:

The coast especially LI & the jersey shore are due for one. Hopefully they get this one! I still have 8-9” of snow cover here. I’m ok with a miss lol

yeah, im fine with a couple inches or miss - Im just starting to see green spots on the lawn. If it happens, hopefully theres a warm up afterwards, dont want snow sitting for a month again. 

[donsutherland1]

25 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Where do you get those maps? 

From here: https://sites.gsl.noaa.gov/desi/

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

4 minutes ago, snywx said:

The coast especially LI & the jersey shore are due for one. Hopefully they get this one! I still have 8-9” of snow cover here. I’m ok with a miss lol

I'm in the same boat as you, but I'm not OK with a miss LOL. 

[weathermedic]

Let's not forget with temps expected to be in the 30s this will be more of a heavy/wet snow with ratios of 10:1 or slightly less.

 

[kat5hurricane]

All the models are making a clear trend in the right direction but we need this thing to not occlude that far south or this will be a run in the mill moderate to maybe significant snowstorm. That's probably the favored outcome now but it's so close, painfully close, to something much bigger.

[donsutherland1]

19 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I do remember, many moons ago, there was a temperature criteria of 20° or below. I 

know that has not been in place for a long time.

Yes, but the temperature criterion was eliminated.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

Yes, but the temperature criterion was eliminated.

I never thought it made that much sense to begin with.  

[donsutherland1]

14 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i was talking about how it could be a sunny day without a cloud in the sky and we could still have a blizzard warning as long as there's snow on the ground and it's blowing it around causing the visibility to be 1/4 miles or less for 3 hours or more with sustained winds of at least 35mph?

Yes. That's correct. The snow could be falling or blowing.

[EastonSN+]

13 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Steve D in his latest video a few minutes ago on YouTube not buying into GFS solution at all. He said the double barrel low look that is tucked in is the model misinterpreting the inverted trough. Expects if anything, GFS low will trend east, not west.

East/west is not our issue. Its more north vs. South. 

That being said, it has happened before.

[WeatherGeek2025]

9 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

Let's not forget with temps expected to be in the 30s this will be more of a heavy/wet snow with ratios of 10:1 or slightly less.

 

during the day sunday yes but Sunday night they'll drop to 20's

[RU848789]

39 minutes ago, Freezing Drizzle said:

Hi RU, I like your posts, and the fact that you are just to my NW.

The forecasts in text this morning for the two areas were exactly as I wrote.

Since then, Mt. Holly downgraded it to this for Perth Amboy:

Sunday

Snow likely, possibly mixed with rain before 7am, then snow. High near 38. East wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

Sunday Night

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 70%.


However, Upton, for Staten Island, has increased the inches in their text forecast:
 

Sunday

Snow likely, possibly mixed with rain before 7am, then snow. High near 37. East wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Sunday Night

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Thanks.  Ignore the point and click when they're at odds with the issued snowfall maps.  They'll update soon.  Also if you go in to the hourly weather graphic it shows 4.3" of snow for Perth Amboy.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

East/west is not our issue. Its more north vs. South. 

That being said, it has happened before.

Meanwhile he never acknowledged the other models trending west.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

Let's not forget with temps expected to be in the 30s this will be more of a heavy/wet snow with ratios of 10:1 or slightly less.

 

It will drop below freezing. 

[IrishRob17]

33 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I'm in the same boat as you, but I'm not OK with a miss LOL. 

I'm with you, for a couple more weeks anyway. 6" at my stake this morning, I wouldn't mind adding to that a bit at least. 

[snywx]

5 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I'm in the same boat as you, but I'm not OK with a miss LOL. 

It always finds a way to snow in OC. As it stands now most guidance still gives us warning criteria snowfall

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

East/west is not our issue. Its more north vs. South. 

That being said, it has happened before.

The problem with his hypothesis is that a number of models have trended toward the GFS solution, even if the 6z GFS proves to have been overdone. At shortening lead times and the shift in the guidance, it's difficult to argue that an increasing number of models are misinterpreting an IVT. Far more likely, the shift in the guidance suggests that his hypothesis concerning the GFS is incorrect, even if the GFS returns to its earlier solutions.

[nycsnow]

If the storm verifies like gfs or close there would probably also be some dynamic cooling to help with ratios no?

[Nibor]

13 minutes ago, snywx said:

The coast especially LI & the jersey shore are due for one. Hopefully they get this one! I still have 8-9” of snow cover here. I’m ok with a miss lol

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, nycsnow said:

If the storm verifies like gfs or close there would probably also be some dynamic cooling to help with ratios no?

evaporative and dynamic cooling will be included!

[snywx]

Just now, nycsnow said:

If the storm verifies like gfs or close there would probably also be some dynamic cooling to help with ratios no?

Wind will prob keep ratios down especially along coastal areas

[brooklynwx99]

GFS is going for broke with that NS piece over MT. my god

[Brasiluvsnow]

Yep as I said yesterday ( and I got weenied for it  ) there is still plenty of time for this to continue to creep more N n W and I hope that it does ,,,,,,,less than 48 hours Let's Go !!!

[Jersey_Snowhole]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

GFS is going for broke with that NS piece over MT. my god

Ridge is also in the perfect spot 

[Nibor]

Earlier phase coming on the GFS