January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z 3K NAM 7am Sunday (much colder) compared to 12K

Thanks for pointing that out. The 12k and 3k might as well be two different models. May sound like a weenie, but I’d lean more on the 3k within 48 hours of onset. 

[CAPE]

18 minutes ago, SnowtoRain said:

I would be interested to know what they are looking at to make that prediction. I haven't seen the midshore above 12" on any model run recently.

GFS and UKie have been close but cant imagine they are riding with that combo lol.

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, peribonca said:

That'll make some hard sleet pellets

Very hard!! 

[SnowtoRain]

Just now, CAPE said:

GFS and UKie have been close but cant imagine they are riding with that combo lol.

I put in our southern md subforum their rationale.

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

Sorry but this is insanely low

Yup.  Going to go with the 3k because it seems to be better at thermals, but mainly because it gives me more snow.

[Weather Will]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Thanks for pointing that out. The 12k and 3k might as well be two different models. May sound like a weenie, but I’d lean more on the 3k within 48 hours of onset. 

3K does a great job with precip type at game time. 

[LP08]

I’m going to pretend the FV3 is good.  That is a much better thump.

[DDweatherman]

What does the ole FV3 show? Saw a comment but mobile, can’t pull it up at the moment. 

[NorthArlington101]

I’m going to pretend the FV3 is good.  That is a much better thump.

It would probably be fine but it barely starts in DC until like 6am. Storm is gonna start Monday at this rate. This was supposed to start tomorrow night at one point!

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

What does the ole FV3 show? Saw a comment but mobile, can’t pull it up at the moment. 

It's much colder and has us snow at 12z.   Sleet line is down just south of RIC

[StormyClearweather]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It would probably be fine but it barely starts in DC until like 6am. Storm is gonna start Monday at this rate. This was supposed to start tomorrow night at one point!

It literally has precip starting at 10pm in DC, but okay. 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

What does the ole FV3 show? Saw a comment but mobile, can’t pull it up at the moment. 

Only goes out 60 hours but this gives an idea-

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

It's much colder and has us snow at 12z.   Sleet line is down just south of RIC

Wow  that is alot  colder.

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, StormyClearweather said:

It literally has precip starting at 10pm in DC, but okay. 

Yeah  snow starts in DC before midnight 

[midatlanticweather]

16 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well, that's a kick in the balls.   BUT...it's the NAM and hopefully it's too dry this far out

We will get nam'd tomorrow night

[NorthArlington101]

It literally has precip starting at 10pm in DC, but okay. 

I may have blinked and missed things today but I thought we were supposed to wake up to more than 2” at 6am. I’m willing to cave to being wrong, though. Guess every flake sticks even if it’s not heavy from midnight-6.

[balltermen]

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

Sorry but this is insanely low

the warm layer is around 750mb. if it's shallow enough and we have rates maybe many will hold on to snow longer. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

3 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

It literally has precip starting at 10pm in DC, but okay. 

They mean the heavier bands

[StormyClearweather]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

I may have blinked and missed things today but I thought we were supposed to wake up to more than 2” at 6am. I’m willing to cave to being wrong, though. Guess every flake sticks even if it’s not heavy from midnight-6.

Taken literally and using Kuchera, FV3 has us at 4-6" at 7am. I'm not saying it's right, but that's what it says. 

[wxmeddler]

8 minutes ago, LP08 said:

I’m going to pretend the FV3 is good.  That is a much better thump.

Such a flawed core (Sorry to all those at EMC, you all do great work), MPAS for the win.

[NorthArlington101]

Taken literally and using Kuchera, FV3 has us at 4-6" at 7am. I'm not saying it's right, but that's what it says. 

Fair - WxBell 10:1 maps have about half of that so I guess it likes the ratios, which isn’t crazy. Probably over analyzing the FV3 at this point. I’ll say you win

[high risk]

17 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Thanks for pointing that out. The 12k and 3k might as well be two different models. May sound like a weenie, but I’d lean more on the 3k within 48 hours of onset. 

 

        They differ in more than just resolution, so they effectively are two different models (even though they have obvious commonalities).    As you said, though, the 3 km is a far superior model, except for when it deepens hurricanes down to 850 mb.

[wxdude64]

Somehow the column between ground/850/700 is -8 to -2 and it is showing sleet?? Right. 

[high risk]

Just now, wxdude64 said:

Somehow the column between ground/850/700 is -2 to -8 and it is showing sleet?? Right. 

    Are you looking at the actual sounding, or just the temperatures at those levels??

[StormyClearweather]

2 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

Such a flawed core (Sorry to all those at EMC, you all do great work), MPAS for the win.

Okay I'm about to go super weenie here, but that's where I am mentally. You probably already know this, but per this paper, the FV3 is being retired as well when RRFS comes online: https://journals.ametsoc.org/downloadpdf/view/journals/bams/aop/BAMS-D-25-0323.1/BAMS-D-25-0323.1.pdf

The RRFS switched to MPAS for v2, which is (I believe) what we're watching slowly roll in. Supposedly, even v1 outperformed most high-res models, with some reflectively issues that have hopefully been resolved per that paper. 

I'll stop now. 

[wxdude64]

1 minute ago, high risk said:

    Are you looking at the actual sounding, or just the temperatures at those levels??

Temps at a first glance, but I have a hard time thinking it would be off that much ?

[StormyClearweather]

2 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Somehow the column between ground/850/700 is -8 to -2 and it is showing sleet?? Right. 

[StormyClearweather]

RGEM looks a touch colder through 60 - still snow for most. 

[TSSN+]

Icon coming in colder and clocking dc at hour 60

[stormtracker]

RGEM/ICON look ok, but we're about to flip shortly after 12z