3/16/26 Severe Weather Event Thread (Moderate Risk) | Latest: 15% TOR, 60% WIND, 5% HAIL

[Ji]

the HRRR looks quite for the rest of the afternoon---am i missing something?

[dailylurker]

Oh boy. I'm seeing sun and the storms in VA should stay west. 

[AmericanWxFreak]

Just now, Ji said:

the HRRR looks quite for the rest of the afternoon---am i missing something?

This might have been the most exciting batch of the day...

[Pityflakes]

whatever spinny energy we had from that mesoscale LP feature is now quickly shifting north to/above the Mason-Dixon line.  Guess now we wait to see if we clear out or if these little line features hang on in the DC metro.  Have all afternoon now though to reload. 

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

the HRRR looks quite for the rest of the afternoon---am i missing something?

None of the models seemed to have a great handle on that line that just went through. I want to see the next few HRRR runs to see if they change anything for later on. 

[mappy]

Velocity showing 70+ winds on the storms headed my way 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

None of the models seemed to have a great handle on that line that just went through. I want to see the next few HRRR runs to see if they change anything for later on. 

Imo like I said I think that line was pretty much it till little frontal line later. 

[Interstate]

I am happy to be stuck between lines

[Ji]

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

None of the models seemed to have a great handle on that line that just went through. I want to see the next few HRRR runs to see if they change anything for later on. 

the HRRR i think nailed the late morning activity. This is from the 12z run

[Kmlwx]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Imo like I said I think that line was pretty much it till little frontal line later. 

Yeah could definitely see that. I think the big questions are how much recovery happens and how intense that frontal line gets. I could see it being anything from robust/gusty showers to a major damaging wind event. For now I'm holding back on sounding any alarms obviously. 

We will see what SPC thinks in the update coming soon. If they trim back probabilities for areas that have seen the line - we'll know their thinking we are "done" 

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

the HRRR i think nailed the late morning activity. This is from the 12z run

 

Yeah that looks decent - I must ahve been looking at the more recent runs. 

[Ellinwood]

Temps got knocked down several degrees IMBY (to lower 60s)... 1-hour temperature change plotted. Some time to recover this afternoon but we'll see.

[high risk]

2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Yeah could definitely see that. I think the big questions are how much recovery happens and how intense that frontal line gets. I could see it being anything from robust/gusty showers to a major damaging wind event. For now I'm holding back on sounding any alarms obviously. 

We will see what SPC thinks in the update coming soon. If they trim back probabilities for areas that have seen the line - we'll know their thinking we are "done" 

           They rarely trim things back unless there is a huge clear-cut signal to do so, with strong model consensus.  

[hstorm]

Sun came out.  66/64.

[MDSnow93]

Sun's peeking through in Germantown after that quick .4" burst. 62 degrees

[stormtracker]

Line down toward Charlottesville may be DC's opportunity

[clskinsfan]

Nice sunny day out here NW of Winchester. 

[SolidIcewx]

Wonder if Delmarva will be the hot spot today. 

[Pityflakes]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Line down toward Charlottesville may be DC's opportunity

Or the line west of quantico if it holds

[WEATHER53]

For DC a round one always saps energy from round two.  Plus no 75+ temps .  Dead calm is what I did not want to see and it’s been windy thus homogenizing things.  Seems like school spokespeople engaged in forecasting of a melodramatic nature and they shouldn’t 

[Nomz]

Just now, WEATHER53 said:

For DC a round one always saps energy from round two.  Plus no 75+ temps .  Dead calm is what I did not want to see and it’s been windy thus homogenizing things.  Seems like school spokespeople engaged in forecasting of a melodramatic nature and they shouldn’t 

Yeah, this is gonna bust for DC, pretty badly. Even if this crapvection line never makes it to DC, there's gonna be zero instability. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Cell near Nokesville is trying. Might clip southern Montgomery County as it near DC?

[AmericanWxFreak]

[wxmeddler]

Only storms I'm worried about the next few hours are the ones throwing out lightning. Most of this stuff is not exhibiting strong vertical organization. 

[TSSN+]

They cut back the risk a good bit. I went from moderate to slight at my work lol. 

[AmericanWxFreak]

...Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...
   Large-scale outflow from ongoing broken linear bands along with a
   separate swath of convection with the low-level warm conveyor have
   greatly hampered the amplitude of diurnal destabilization across the
   Carolinas to the DE Valley. Primary severe threat should remain with
   the pre-frontal linear bands as they spread east-northeast this
   afternoon. Some intensification may yet occur across eastern
   SC/southern NC within pockets of low 70s surface temperatures. See
   MCDs 272-273 for additional storm-term discussion.

   Farther north, a pre-frontal low-topped convective line is evolving
   across central PA. This should be the primary driver of afternoon
   severe potential northeastward into parts of NY as mid 50s to low
   60s surface dew points remain prevalent just ahead of this line.
   Within a deeply meridional wind profile, damaging winds and embedded
   tornadoes will be the main hazards. This activity should remain
   spatially confined by a lack of downstream boundary-layer
   destabilization over eastern NY into New England.

   In the wake of this leading activity, a second round of low-topped
   convection will likely reform east of the Blue Ridge into the
   Piedmont towards late afternoon/early evening. Prior overturning and
   persistent cloud coverage should mitigate appreciable boundary-layer
   destabilization. However, robust large-scale ascent and intensifying
   lower-level winds will accompany the ejection of a 100+ kt 500-mb
   jetlet within the basal shortwave trough. This should yield a
   renewed threat for damaging winds accompanying the fast-moving line.
   Even with meager buoyancy, another round of sporadic severe gusts
   should occur from NC/VA to the Chesapeake Bay/DE Valley vicinity
   through this evening.

[AmericanWxFreak]

[TSSN+]

So when’s the snow coming? 

[aldie 22]

12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Nice sunny day out here NW of Winchester. 

Really???cloudy as fuck about a mile away from you

[jon_snow]

nothingburger, as usual