“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[dendrite]

Already 968 a bit east of DE

[Typhoon Tip]

19 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Any insight into 500 mb heights over Miami? Forgetting your rule of thumb

Marginal ... 

At 24 hours, prior to the amplitude setting up over the MA, the heights over the Florida Panhandle are 582 N, to 584-ish S, which is on the fence ... arguable a very minor stressing of that hypothetical rule. However, the other part of that, which is actually the more important aspect, the wind flags are < 40 kts on average.  That means that the flow is not preconditioned to a compressed state. Such that as the S/W/phase going on over top in latitude, doesn't have the southern momentum being absorbed in the baseline velocity anomaly.  

Words get a bit pricey in that... but it has to do with whether a wind max is actually differentiable in the U component of the flow.   For example, if the ambient velocity of the flow (U component) is humming along at 70 kts, and a powerful S/W with a 110 kts wind max up in Manitoba has it's sights set on the TV ... as it descends the stream lines, it's 110 -70 = 40 kts of differential.  Not terrible.   But, if the ambient flow is only 30 kts, that becomes a much bigger velocity left over to force jet responses.   The sign that the former "robbing"/absorption is taking place, the vorticity begin to slope backward and the trough's axis into the southern flanks looks/bends back positive. 

Longer than I wanted... In this case, the marginal limitation is easily overcome.  Arithmetically, this whole amplitude has vast momentum compared to a 584 dm hgts, with limited or 0 geostrophic wind anomaly.    

[weatherwiz]

Big time wind damage across SE MA and the Cape, coastal RI, and far SE coastal CT

[Damage In Tolland]

Cane gusts back to Albany !

[ineedsnow]

Destroyed

[hooralph]

NAM is cocaine bear. NAM crossed the streams and is summoning Gozer the Gozerian.

[Baroclinic Zone]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s a hurricane 

Seriously. 965Mb is yuge

[Sey-Mour Snow]

OMG 20-40" from Baltimore to Boston with 50-75mph winds still snowing 

[ineedsnow]

This run is ridiculous!! 

[dendrite]

Still going to need more latitude with this for most of NH and the CRV (outside of CT) I think. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Seriously. 965Mb is yuge

Every tree down from TAN to ALB

[tomcatct]

All the snow weenie stuff aside this storm is literally life-threatening if you go by this Nam run.. hopefully the word gets out and people don't take it as hype

[Henry's Weather]

Just now, dendrite said:

Still going to need more latitude with this for most of NH and the CRV (outside of CT) I think. 

Thought there was more runway for this run, would like this 50-75 miles north

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

BECS territory there.

[Bostonseminole]

Depending on rest of 12z blizzard warning probably expanded but those are some insane winds up to Boston


.

[CT Rain]

Fuck yes. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

OMG 20-40" from Baltimore to Boston with 50-75mph winds still snowing 

Nam is pure nudity

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, CT Rain said:

Fuck yes. 

When your excited, we know it’s real deal.

[ineedsnow]

Jumped east at hr 39 then came back at hr42 there's a chance this tucks even more

[Go Kart Mozart]

NAM has me singing a somewhat annoying (but today, appropriate) Fall Out Boy song:

Some legends are told, some turn to dust or to gold
But you will remember me
Remember me for centuries

[weatherwiz]

I can't wait to make a snow map later. It's going to be like a rated R Picasso piece.  

[wxeyeNH]

Hey guys.  So these are the days that we wait for, sometimes for years.  Good luck down there.  I really have not been paying to much attention as it has comfortably looked like a miss or scrape up here.  Now I'm taking more interest.  I guess my question would be,  looking at the current runs would the defomation band get far enough NW to get me and Brian into the action?  Usually in deep low's the White Mountains to my northeast shadow me.

I'll be lurking and watching.  Oh, 7" powder last night  24F light snow now

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Big time wind damage across SE MA and the Cape, coastal RI, and far SE coastal CT

I mean just big wind all the way back through CT (exception far NW corner). 

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

OMG 20-40" from Baltimore to Boston with 50-75mph winds still snowing 

We love to see it. Let's get the GFS to double down. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Those winds and wind field similar to Blizz of 78

[CoastalWx]

Days and days without power?

[Henry's Weather]

3k will probably be even more amped

[The 4 Seasons]

We do, uh, have a rather big storm on our hands...

First call and hopefully the final. Obviously sided with the more aggressive guidance with a general 1-2 feet across the area, lesser amounts in NW MA. Highlighted potential for 2+ feet in SE MA and central NJ around Monmouth/Ocean where models are hitting those areas hard. 

The track, development and intensity of this storm closely resembles Feb 2013 and 2006, these were also storms showing up on CIPS analogs frequently so they were used as a guide. Think this has the potential to produce 2-3 feet in some of the more intense banding.

We're only 30-36hrs away now so i didn't want to have to update this just to increase it and feel mostly confident in verifying. 

Likely a historic, record breaking storm for some. 

[TheSnowman]

3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Fuck yes. 

When CT Rain is THIS pumped?  HECS is possible.  

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I mean just big wind all the way back through CT (exception far NW corner). 

We love to see it. Let's get the GFS to double down. 

Yup...waiting on GFS. I may even hold off on the Euro but its game on.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Days and days without power?

You start out living in S Wey.. when it’s over your’re in Wey?