Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, Jt17 said:

The lowest output is the Euro OP with 7 inches lol


.

that will guarantee WSW being issued by Upton soon

[EasternLI]

Welp looks like a lot of model watching on tap this weekend. AI EPS with another little tick west. 

[David-LI]

WSW issued for the area

[Islandersguy]

WS watches up !!


.

[Brian5671]

Just now, wthrmn654 said:

Winter storm watch! 

INTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions possible. Total snow accumulations
  between 10 and 13 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45
  mph.

* WHERE...Suffolk County.

[wthrmn654]

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

 

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 6 and 10 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.

 

* WHERE... Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey, and southeast New York.

 

WHEN... From Sunday morning through Monday afternoon.

 

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce

 

visibility. The hazardous conditions

 

could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. The

 

combination of gusty winds and heavy wet snow could bring down tree branches.

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, Metasequoia said:

NYC has had KUs in 1996, 2006, and 2016. What are the odds we add 2026 to the list...

I’d say 1/25 is almost certainly a KU. 

[NEG NAO]

WSW from KOKX

just issued

[nycsnow]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
112 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-176>179-210215-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0002.260222T1100Z-260223T2300Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern
New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern
Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-
Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern
Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
112 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 6 and
  10 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey,
  and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow
  could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. The
  combination of gusty winds and heavy wet snow could bring down
  tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

[MANDA]

Notable shift northward with increasing amounts as would be expected given model trends last 12-18 hours.  This map would cover the entire event for this sub forum.

In my mind the biggest question now is where does the western and northern edge of the precipitation shield really drop off rapidly.  Are we done trending or do we trend north and west a little more?  I think most in this sub forum will be disappointed with less than 6" at this point, so where does that happen???  How far N and W do you have to be to miss out on the big stuff?

Also, don't underestimate the dynamical lift this is going to be involved here, especially in banding.  Ratios could exceed 10:1 in spots at times during the storm.

[Snowpsycho]

4 minutes ago, SleetStormNJ said:

As would riding the Euro so hard like Lee Goldberg did earlier this week when he said "not coming".

Still can't believe he did that. One of the best TV mets on air totally disregarded other guidance.

[Snowlover11]

WSW 6-10” 40mph winds

[winterwarlock]

8 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

The lowest output is the Euro OP with 7 inches lol


.

For alot of nj euro and canadian and ukie are 4-6

[Freezing Drizzle]

8 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Mike Masco just followed my weather page lol he wants to take some lessons

He's good. I remember him, still a student, on the old Evans AW page.  Glad he's successful.

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

For alot of nj euro and canadian and ukie are 4-6

No watches from Mt. Holly yet. Still on the cusp here. Need another 50 mile west shift. 

Although they usually hold off until later afternoon 

[NJwx85]

5 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

WSW 6-10” 40mph winds

This is still playing it pretty conservative for our area. I told my Wife "12 to 18 inches" and she said, "In your dreams" LOL

[donsutherland1]

8 minutes ago, Islandersguy said:

It’s ridiculous, all about money these days for which most of the time is spent on nonsense. That being said let it snow!!


.

In my school district in Westchester, 3 snow days are built into the schedule. If they aren't used, the school year ends a bit earlier. We still meet the 180-day state requirement. Post-Covid, there was some discussion about going the route New York City chose. But the conclusion was that students would be distracted/not motivated, so remote learning would not necessarily be beneficial from a learning standpoint.

[Stormlover74]

It is odd to see upton issue them first. They're usually more conservative 

[winterwarlock]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

No watches from Mt. Holly yet. Still on the cusp here. Need another 50 mile west shift. 

I think eary calls should be 3-6 nw nj going to 5-8 south of 78 most of cj and then 6-10 to coast and south jersey maybe 8-12 extreme coast lollipop..then move from up or down from there based on modelling tonight and tomorrow

[SnoSki14]

21 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah we're in for it. don't need to see much more than that

Got more maps for the EPS

[wthrmn654]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

It is odd to see upton issue them first. They're usually more conservative 

I was about to say that,  and even Boston before jersey.  Jersey and Boston are usually the first to issue watches/ warnings.  

[TJW014]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

No watches from Mt. Holly yet. Still on the cusp here. Need another 50 mile west shift. 

Still sucking on the NBM. waiting for 6" probs to reach over 50%

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

It is odd to see upton issue them first. They're usually more conservative 

Agree, Mt. Holly are the watch happy ones 

[guinness77]

I guess NWS more in line with the GFS already calling 10”-13” for Suffolk with “possible blizzard conditions.” 
 

interesting 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

WSW up here too for 6-10. I'm a little surprised up here it's that aggressive this early.

[snowman19]

7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Got more maps for the EPS

The EPS mean is 7 inches for NYC more for Long Island 

[Freezing Drizzle]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

No watches from Mt. Holly yet. Still on the cusp here. Need another 50 mile west shift. 

Although they usually hold off until later afternoon 

Yeah, it happens that I live several hundred yards from the dividing line of Upton for Staten Island and Mt. Holly for northern Middlesex County.

Over a few decades, Upton, for Staten Island, has been most accurate for me.

Mt. Holly seems to include my town with the area just to my south in northern Monmouth County. Thus, Mt. Holly forecasts for me tend to be a bit warm.

[Nibor]

Nice

[Monty]

6 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

I think eary calls should be 3-6 nw nj going to 5-8 south of 78 most of cj and then 6-10 to coast and south jersey maybe 8-12 extreme coast lollipop..then move from up or down from there based on modelling tonight and tomorrow

Perfect. You and I have agreed that Mount Holly has been too aggressive frequently this winter. They're probably nervous to pull the trigger now. 

[SACRUS]

 

Euro and GGEM are more NEMO like than the others.  Storm wise and outcomes.