Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[EastonSN+]

On a funny note I woke up to watch TWC and at 6:50 they had a box to the right with NYC at 8 to 12. Then at 7:05 the box changed to 12 to 18.

[EastonSN+]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

And possible another storm next weekend 

IMO a bigger disappointment than this storm having more sleet is this being the only 6+ storm during this cold stretch.

[NEG NAO]

3 hours ago, wishcast_hater said:

URGENT WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE – WINTER DISAPPOINTMENT DESK

ISSUED: Immediately, because hope is fragile

SUMMARY:
A significant winter storm is expected to impact the region. Forecast confidence remains high for heavy snow potential, followed by a dangerous transition to sleet, freezing rain, or the ultimate betrayal: plain rain.

⸻

HAZARDS:
• Initial excitement from model runs showing 18–30 inches
• Rapid emotional destabilization as warm nose appears
• Keyboard smashing, doom posting, and refresh-induced psychosis
• Statements such as “this storm is dead” at T-72 hours

⸻

SUICIDE WATCH (METEOROLOGICAL): IN EFFECT
A Snowlover Emotional Crisis Watch is in effect for the duration of the event.

Residents are advised:
• Do not do anything rash based on one model run
• Step away from social media during the sleet phase
• Remember: one band can still save the storm
• Refrain from declaring winter “over” before March

⸻

TIMING:
• Snow: Hope Phase
• Sleet/Freezing Rain: Anger Phase
• Rain: Acceptance (or complete meltdown)
• Post-storm: “Next system looks promising” Phase

⸻

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS:
• Touch grass (or snow, if available)
• Hydrate
• Do not fight family members over 850 mb temps
• Seek professional help if you start trusting the GFS blindly

⸻

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
Low on precipitation type
High on emotional damage


.

agreed - makes one nauseous reading some of these Doom and Gloom - Debbie Downer posts about a little sleet mixing in cutting the double digit accumulation down a couple inches...I am not going to get involved in that nonsense . THINK POSITIVE !

[winterwarlock]

Why is there little discussion of 0z Euro

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, winterwarlock said:

Why is there little discussion of 0z Euro

Too busy worrying about the sleet

[Volcanic Winter]

1 hour ago, BoulderWX said:

The NWS actually added an inch to my WSW - 12-17. Not sure what they’re looking at. 

Same down here actually. I’m included in the 12-17, only down all the way by AC does it drop to 8-15. 

Very bullish, wondering if it’s just because it’s a watch - I’d expect the warnings to be more finely tuned. I think 6-8 with a chance at 10 in a best case scenario would be more realistic for my location. 

Not overly pressed tbh, beast of a storm and I’m ready to roll the dice no matter what happens. 

[ILoveWinter]

Very perplexing with My Holly still being quite aggressive showing 16 inches for coastal Monmouth (Long Branch area). 

[winterwarlock]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

Too busy worrying about the sleet

Right but in conjunction with NAM the writing is on the wall for 6-12 tops but Mt Holly seems like the GFS has blackmail material on them

[winterwarlock]

Just now, ILoveWinter said:

Very perplexing with My Holly still being quite aggressive showing 16 inches for coastal Monmouth (Long Branch area). 

Its going to be ugly post mortem for them and their NBM

[NEG NAO]

Just now, winterwarlock said:

Right but in conjunction with NAM the writing is on the wall for 6-12 tops but Mt Holly seems like the GFS has blackmail material on them

ok I wrote that down you said 6 -12 tops - we should have a snowfall accumulation contest

[Volcanic Winter]

8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

agreed - makes one nauseous reading some of these Doom and Gloom - Debbie Downer posts about a little sleet mixing in cutting the double digit accumulation down a couple inches...I am not going to get involved in that nonsense . THINK POSITIVE !

With respect, and this is a gripe I have overall with AWX - this isn’t a safe space for snow positivity. It’s supposed to be a science discussion forum, debate typically includes various view points and opinions. People also have different preferences in general, everyone isn’t going to neatly line up in a way that reinforces your personal optimism. 

And it’s fine if people express frustration, I don’t claim agency over the feelings or thoughts of others and I’d expect that same latitude in return. 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

ok I wrote that down you said 6 -12 tops - we should have a snowfall accumulation contest

Nobody's getting a foot south of 78

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, Volcanic Winter said:

With respect, and this is a gripe I have overall with AWX - this isn’t a safe space for snow positivity. It’s supposed to be a science discussion forum, debate typically includes various view points and opinions. People also have different preferences in general, everyone isn’t going to nearly line up in a way that reinforces your personal optimism.

And it’s fine if people express frustration, I don’t claim agency over the feelings or thoughts of others and I’d expect that same latitude in return. 

I am glad you said it with respect - thanks...

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nobody's getting a foot south of 78

noted and recorded - anybody else have snowfall totals ?

[mob1]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

noted and recorded - anybody else have snowfall totals ?

I'll add one. No single NYC proper airport or ASOS site (JFK, EWR, LGA, and NYC) will report double digit snowfall totals. 

[winterwarlock]

8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

ok I wrote that down you said 6 -12 tops - we should have a snowfall accumulation contest

Define location..im forecasting for central jersey south of 78 newark to nyc and north of trenton

[Nibor]

Someone along the 84 corridor is gonna get over 20”

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Nibor said:

Someone along the 84 corridor is gonna get over 20”

Yeah they're getting smoked up there where no mixing occurs and high ratios

[wishcast_hater]

9 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Someone along the 84 corridor is gonna get over 20”

I believe the NAM has mixing up to Poughkeepsie.  I will let you know since I am North of 84.

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, mob1 said:

I'll add one. No single NYC proper airport or ASOS site (JFK, EWR, LGA, and NYC) will report double digit snowfall totals. 

Who knows if the models are wrong with the warming. Lets just see how the storm progresses and take it from there. Saying no one will see double digits at this time is irresponsible. 

[jdj5211]

I’m right off 287 in Morris County. Seems like it might be right near the sleet/snow battleground. Curious to see where I end up. Preparing for 8 or 20 at this point


.

[MJO812]

Just got back from food shopping.  What a shitshow it was. 

[allgame830]

12 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Someone along the 84 corridor is gonna get over 20”

I am in Northern Westchester, north of 287 by 10 miles. I think my area should be good for 10-15” plus a little sleet

[SACRUS]

 

1/23  06Z

 

QPF remained the most consistent i have seen in the 1.2 - 1.5 range on all the major data.  

 

 

[ILoveWinter]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Who knows if the models are wrong with the warming. Lets just see how the storm progresses and take it from there. Saying no one will see double digits at this time is irresponsible. 

Agree as there’s a ton of moisture incoming and it’s possible we get a big enough thump where the changeover won’t matter as much.
Anyway, regardless of any sleet it seems like a floor is around 6-8 at this time for the city and I’d honestly be ok with that considering the awful winters we’ve had here.

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Just got back from food shopping.  What a shitshow it was. 

Better off waiting til Sunday morning at this point

[RockawayRowdies]

18 hours ago, RockawayRowdies said:

Ha!
I'm in Rockaway borough.. I have no idea whether to expect 18 inches or 8. It's facinating.

 

4 minutes ago, jdj5211 said:

I’m right off 287 in Morris County. Seems like it might be right near the sleet/snow battleground. Curious to see where I end up. Preparing for 8 or 20 at this point


.

I said same thing yesterday lol

[SACRUS]

 

closing in on the 1.25 - 1.50 and 1.75 approaching now.  

 

[Nibor]

2 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

I believe the NAM has mixing up to Poughkeepsie.  I will let you know since I am North of 84.

I won’t discount it but if sleet gets that far north I don’t think it’ll be for long. 

[BoulderWX]

5 minutes ago, jdj5211 said:

I’m right off 287 in Morris County. Seems like it might be right near the sleet/snow battleground. Curious to see where I end up. Preparing for 8 or 20 at this point


.

hi neighbor - I think we deal with a decent amount of mixing but still think we can see 8-10 before the change over; a couple extra hours of snow vs sleet will determine if we hit double digits IMO