ag3

12z Navgem is a direct NYC/LI hit today as well. I know it's the Navgem. Just pointing out all model outputs.

Not over analyzing anything but there would 100% be a moderate storm surge into the NY Bight and LI south shore with that track. But it's meaningless. Way too far. Ukmet is into Florida in only a few days.

There would be storm surge for all of LI and the NYC Bight with that track.

12z Ukmet is into the Port St. Lucie, Florida area in only 5-6 days.

The Ukmet had the Cuba landfall for days.

Motion on latest loop looks more NW then W. Maybe it will avoid Cuba.

Euro is south and into Cuba at hour 24.

Blue line is 12z Ukmet:

12z Ukmet is north of the 0z run and it looks like it just scrapes the Cuban coast now, instead of fully getting eye into it.

That says September 6.

Do you have this for the next frame or 2? Thanks.

This scenario spares SC/NC from a direct hurricane. SC would get rains and some gusty winds but not a direct hit.

No. It misses Cuba.

Not just hour 192. It's been erratic with anything past hour 72.

LOL. Euro has been terrible past hour 72. Yes, it's scoring well inside of that but it's been the worst model by far outside of that. Very erratic with thousand mile shifts each run.