January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[snowfan]

I mean this is fine

 

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, caviman2201 said:

LOL BWI with a nice lil 18kft DGZ

That hodograph lol... violent tornadoes incoming

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

shit, wrong map again

Calm down. Take a deep breath lol

 

[psuhoffman]

Ggem surface reminds me of 1996 with the initial extension of the trough to the north of the wave ip into KY before the transfer to the coast and an arctic high in the way. 

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, stormtracker said:

yeah yea, but we all know it's not gonna be that amp'd, so I'm cool with this

Do we know that though?

[Rvarookie]

Old met down here mentioned that 10 years ago on 1/25/16 we got rocked during the broncos vs patriots afc championship game. Let’s run it back again this weekend folks!

[Kevin Reilly]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

 

Classic!

[bncho]

i'm going to go crazy

[MDScienceTeacher]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

If @Ji lived in Raleigh he would say “I want 18 to 0 in one run

[Ralph Wiggum]

CMC with another batch developing 144 lol

[nj2va]

130+ reading the thread, love it

[snowfan]

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ggem surface reminds me of 1996 with the initial extension of the trough to the north of the wave ip into KY before the transfer to the coast and an arctic high in the way. 

I'm cool with riding the sleet line if we can get a storm like that.   In all of DC big ones, we had a period of sleet.  It is what it is. BUT..I think the GGEM is doing too much since it's the only one showing this

[psuhoffman]

Sleet got all the way into central MD in the 1996 storm too. Not saying that happens. Just saying this ggem run reminds me of that storm. 

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Ggem surface reminds me of 1996 with the initial extension of the trough to the north of the wave ip into KY before the transfer to the coast and an arctic high in the way. 

Yes. Always love seeing the wave hit a wall in KY. It is as good as it gets for us. Its the CMC so I am not holding my breath. But that is about perfect for us to get destroyed.

[mattie g]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

yeah yea, but we all know it's not gonna be that amp'd, so I'm cool with this

Unless there’s a time between panels where things warm up a bit up top, we’re fine at all levels on the GFS.

[winter_warlock]

I don't care how good the models are looking tonight and how much they agree that we're gonna get hammered... I'm putting all my faith in the Spire model! 

[Ji]

i'm going to go crazy

Not to weenie but that’s like a 9:1 ratio storm?

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

CMC with another batch developing 144 lol

Nah that’s leftover from what should’ve phased in and given us an even larger storm… I’m joking but it’s not technically impossible 

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

130+ reading the thread, love it

I only have one hand on my phone. 

[Ji]

Sleet got all the way into central MD in the 1996 storm too. Not saying that happens. Just saying this ggem run reminds me of that storm. 

I never saw sleet in 96

[winter_warlock]

As always Randy ty for the PBP!!!

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, Ji said:

Not to weenie but that’s like a 9:1 ratio storm?

Get out. 

[EHoffman]

Just now, Ji said:

Not to weenie but that’s like a 9:1 ratio storm?

No, way higher.  It's 1.3" of QPF

[mitchnick]

Just now, Ji said:

Not to weenie but that’s like a 9:1 ratio storm?

With that much qpf, who cares? Anyway, the weight of that much snow always compacts.

[Nomz]

4 minutes ago, Rvarookie said:

Old met down here mentioned that 10 years ago on 1/25/16 we got rocked during the broncos vs patriots afc championship game. Let’s run it back again this weekend folks!

lets not run that back for my patriots fandom sake

[bncho]

I literally just DoorDashed a yardstick to my house. LFG! 

[WxMan1]

1 minute ago, snowfan said:

I mean this is fine

 

Yeah, 00Z GEM looks more like those AI solutions up to this point. Where you go from "damn, are we gonna get fringed with cold smoke" to "uh oh, how close is that mix zone?"

I would be more worried if I were in central-southern VA if wanting an all snow event. I do think the northerly trends will continue. ...but hopefully end at some point. Anxious to see the 00Z op ECMWF (aren't we all), but also the GFS/EC AI runs.

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, bncho said:

I literally just DoorDashed a yardstick to my house. LFG! 

So we know who to blame if this all goes south (pun intended) from here 

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Not to weenie but that’s like a 9:1 ratio storm?

 I'd think with as cold as it's gonna get that the ratios would be higher. But with 4-5 days to go .  The more accurate snow ratios I'm sure will come later