Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[Winter Wizard]

I said this in the MA forum but figured I’d send it here too…

I believe there is potential for 12"+ for coastal regions from Delaware to Mass, but I am honestly decently concerned about a potential rug pull I-95 N and W with this one. A storm as intense as this is likely to have a more consolidated precipitation shield which slams the coast, but can make it difficult for those bands to pivot farther inland. There is legitimate risk the phase does not occur until north of our latitude unless we see more digging upstream. The inverted trough is a wild card that could make up for it in spots though. Not to mention, surface temperatures are marginal with this one, and we could see a period of white rain cut down on totals. Hoping for the best, but I see clear warning signs and parallels to storms like January 2015, January 2018, January 2022, Boxing Day, etc.

[MegaMike]

32 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Latest NBM

Still ongoing, friend: 

While on the subject, I wrote to Don and someone else about how snowfall is determined by the NBM several weeks ago. For clarity, I mentioned that the weights (available here: https://vlab.noaa.gov/documents/6609493/32850490/CONUS_SNOICEACCUM.pdf) temporally vary. On top of time-varying weights, the ensemble members incorporated into the mean are lagged by ~1-2 cycles (depends on modeling system)... To see which models/cycles are included by the NBM at any forecast time, you can use this link: https://blend.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/nbm-dashboard

Additionally, it takes ~1 cycle to post-process the NBM. Therefore, the most up-to-date NBM snowfall product will have a lag of ~2-3 cycles. This is where the confusion is imo.

[NJwx85]

This should be NW of 12z.

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

[lee59]

Maybe this storm will end any debate as to whether this was a good winter or not.

[MJO812]

We are about to get namd

[hooralph]

Buckle up. We about to get NAM'd. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Just now, MJO812 said:

We are about to get namd

Snow map whenever you can please.

[NJwx85]

[Snowlover11]

Classic NAM’ing incoming.

[donsutherland1]

Just now, lee59 said:

Maybe this storm will end any debate as to whether this was a good winter or not.

If, for example, NYC gets to 30" and its winter mean temperature is 32° or below, it was a great winter in objective terms. The only such winters that met such criteria since 1960 are 1960-61, 1977-78, 1993-94, 2002-03, and 2014-15.

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

If, for example, NYC gets to 30" and its winter mean temperature is 32° or below, it was a great winter in objective terms. The only such winters that met such criteria since 1960 are 1960-61, 1977-78, 1993-94, 2002-03, and 2014-15.

Back in the day, we had back to back 40 inch winters. God the 00s were amazing.

[Prue11]

14 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

lol I see we're in the phase now where expectations get set so high that some people will be sad on Monday morning even if they get 19".  And I include me in 'some people', because once I see those crazy numbers this close to the event, I start to cash them in.  That's a me problem.  But not a just me problem I bet lol.

Same lol hoping for 12-18” area wide in Suffolk with isolated 24-30” 

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said:

I said this in the MA forum but figured I’d send it here too…

 

I believe there is potential for 12"+ for coastal regions from Delaware to Mass, but I am honestly decently concerned about a potential rug pull I-95 N and W with this one. A storm as intense as this is likely to have a more consolidated precipitation shield which slams the coast, but can make it difficult for those bands to pivot farther inland. There is legitimate risk the phase does not occur until north of our latitude unless we see more digging upstream. The inverted trough is a wild card that could make up for it in spots though. Not to mention, surface temperatures are marginal with this one, and we could see a period of white rain cut down on totals. Hoping for the best, but I see clear warning signs and parallels to storms like January 2015, January 2018, January 2022, Boxing Day, etc.

Being here in CT that is what I am co corned about, although had 7 plus in all those events just not the jackpot.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

If, for example, NYC gets to 30" and its winter mean temperature is 32° or below, it was a great winter in objective terms. The only such winters that met such criteria since 1960 are 1960-61, 1977-78, 1993-94, 2002-03, and 2014-15.

I would also add to that the days with snow cover in NYC this season. If this storm does verify, the number of days this winter may approach or exceed 50.

I don't really know how many winters have had over 50 days of snow cover in NYC. The last one off the top of my head was 2010/11. There may have been 1 or 2 after that but I'm not sure.

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

If, for example, NYC gets to 30" and its winter mean temperature is 32° or below, it was a great winter in objective terms. The only such winters that met such criteria since 1960 are 1960-61, 1977-78, 1993-94, 2002-03, and 2014-15.

I have about 32" now so if there's 12" from this that gets me to 44" which I'd consider quite good. My average here going back 30 years is probably about 35". Islip is 31" I think.

[BoulderWX]

4mb stronger through 57 with the low right off the delmarva

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Back in the day, we had back to back 40 inch winters. God the 00s were amazing.

Don't forget the back to back 50" winters (2013-14 and 2014-15).

[David-LI]

[MJO812]

Just now, David-LI said:

Insane run incoming 

[David-LI]

[hooralph]

Call in the National Guard for Delmarva

[Snowlover11]

1 minute ago, winterwarlock said:

Thats 12z

[mob1]

1 minute ago, winterwarlock said:

That's 12Z

[hooralph]

1 minute ago, winterwarlock said:

That's 12z (last run).

[DegazRU]

Just now, David-LI said:

That is beautiful 

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, winterwarlock said:

This is not enough the correct run.

[wthrmn654]

2 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

In case you didn't hear, that's 12z

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

4 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Back in the day, we had back to back 40 inch winters. God the 00s were amazing.

Actually NYC had 4, 40+ inch winters in a row from 2002/03 through 2005/06. Two consecutive 50+ inches in a row in 2009/10 and 2010/11 and 2013/14 through 2014/15

 

[NJwx85]