Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[MJO812]

Blizzard conditions mentioned by NWS for Long Island

[BoulderWX]

Just now, SACRUS said:

 

Euro and GGEM are more NEMO like than the others.  Storm wise and outcomes.

that one killed me... missed out by like 25 miles. this could be similar lol

[Islandersguy]

In my school district in Westchester, 3 snow days are built into the schedule. If they aren't used, the school year ends a bit earlier. We still meet the 180-day state requirement. Post-Covid, there was some discussion about going the route New York City chose. But the conclusion was that students would be distracted/not motivated, so remote learning would not necessarily be beneficial from a learning standpoint.

The overall reason NYC doesn’t have wiggle room is because they now give a holiday for everything because they feel remote learning is sufficient enough.


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[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

 

Euro and GGEM are more NEMO like than the others.  Storm wise and outcomes.

Very possible although ensembles suggest a westward lean which could hint at more west trends tonight and tomorrow 

[Jt17]

For alot of nj euro and canadian and ukie are 4-6

Maybe western NJ.


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[donsutherland1]

Most of the New York City, NJ, and Long Island region has > 70% probability of seeing 6" or more snow.

The spread remains large.

The overall NBM forecast:

[SleetStormNJ]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

 

Euro and GGEM are more NEMO like than the others.  Storm wise and outcomes.

Always the risk/reward factor - risk is there for dryslotting/subsidence as the storm pivots/occludes - where it happens is the key in every one of these.

[Mo Snow]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

Most of the New York City, NJ, and Long Island region has > 70% probability of seeing 6" or more snow.

The spread remains large.

The overall NBM forecast:

whats the source here? nws?

[MJO812]

Left lean

[Prue11]

14 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

I was about to say that,  and even Boston before jersey.  Jersey and Boston are usually the first to issue watches/ warnings.  

We could be looking at 12-18”. + in our parts of Suffolk 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, SleetStormNJ said:

Always the risk/reward factor - risk is there for dryslotting/subsidence as the storm pivots/occludes - where it happens is the key in every one of these.

Yeah people forget in bdb it went from 32" to 4 in under 50 miles west of where that death band set up

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, Mo Snow said:

whats the source here? nws?

That's the national blend of models.

[Nibor]

42 minutes ago, Rjay said:

The writing seems to be on the wall

[RockawayRowdies]

Is NBM saying 12+ for almost entire NJ? Nuts..

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Most of the New York City, NJ, and Long Island region has > 70% probability of seeing 6" or more snow.

The spread remains large.

The overall NBM forecast:

I think NWS Upton’s WSW starting point of 6-10 inches for the NYC metro area….more on Long Island is very reasonable and realistic right now. I think the 0z runs tonight will allow us to narrow it down further as we very likely reach model consensus…..finally

[doncat]

12 minutes ago, Freezing Drizzle said:

Yeah, it happens that I live several hundred yards from the dividing line of Upton for Staten Island and Mt. Holly for northern Middlesex County.

Over a few decades, Upton, for Staten Island, has been most accurate for me.

Mt. Holly seems to include my town with the area just to my south in northern Monmouth County. Thus, Mt. Holly forecasts for me tend to be a bit warm.

Hey same here... Can just go down the road a bit and cross the river and it's mt holly territory.

[weatherpruf]

39 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Bernie always try to play the in between scenario so he doesn't look foolish

they just posted 9 forecasters on nj.com....most were very low, some said we gotta wait, but none predicting a lot, most said south jersey and the coast to jackpot, and one said passaic co.....so that's a selection of pros.....my friend just said to me, it isn't gonna snow is it? 

[weatherpruf]

31 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I’d say 1/25 is almost certainly a KU. 

the size and impact of that storm has to put it on the list.

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

I think NWS Upton’s WSW starting point of 6-10 inches for the NYC metro area….more on Long Island is very reasonable and realistic right now. I think the 0z runs tonight will allow us to narrow it down further as we very likely reach model consensus…..finally

I agree. I'm thinking 8"-12" for NYC and nearby areas with higher amounts on parts of Long Island, central and southern NJ. 

[NJwx85]

8 minutes ago, Islandersguy said:

The overall reason NYC doesn’t have wiggle room is because they now give a holiday for everything because they feel remote learning is sufficient enough.


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My wife teaches at a public school in Rockland County and her last day this year is June 26th, which is borderline ridiculous. When I went to school in Northern NJ we were done by the third week in June. They eliminated February Winter break in the early 2000's when we had a really bad winter and ended up having to give it completely back for snow days. I know NY still does the February break which I don't understand either. They got almost 2 weeks off at the end of January and then most years a week to ten days again at the end of March or early April.

[Mo Snow]

4 minutes ago, Nibor said:

whoa so Euro shifted west like 200 miles in 24 hours? (sorry, have not been following this storm or htis thread). It caved?

[Metasequoia]

19 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I’d say 1/25 is almost certainly a KU. 

NYC got about a foot... granted with about 1.8 qpf... just feels not quite enough.  Do others classify this storm as a KU? I would be interested to know. 

[jm1220]

Just now, Metasequoia said:

NYC got about a foot... granted with about 1.8 qpf... just feels not quite enough.  Do others classify this storm as a KU? I would be interested to know. 

The storms aren’t officially chosen until next year for this winter I think but given the huge geographic area affected and BOS walking away with 23”, it’s a very high likelihood. It’s based on severity times number of people affected. 

[LawdogGRNJ]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah people forget in bdb it went from 32" to 4 in under 50 miles west of where that death band set up

Late 90's -  remember a largely unforecast event that dumped 20+ inches on the eastern edge of the Mass North shore. Literally 2 miles inland...absolutely nothing. (Salem to Peabody for ref)

[weatherpruf]

38 minutes ago, EastCoastKU said:

NYC no longer gives traditional snow days because of the NYS 180 day requirement. Snow days are no longer built into our calendar. We cannot dip below 180 days or we lose a percentage of State funding that we rely on. Suburban schools are fed with school taxes so they do not care if funding is lost… that’s why they make their own calendars and rules. It sucks for us to have remote instruction because it’s a lot of work in the upper grades. However, it’s much safer than to have to use our own days or brave the conditions.


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suburban districts absolutely care about state funding and will not chance losing it; i once taught all the way to june 30, in 1994, and gave up most of spring break, then started summer school. and i was in grad school. i was totally burned out.

[Nibor]

2 minutes ago, Metasequoia said:

NYC got about a foot... granted with about 1.8 qpf... just feels not quite enough.  Do others classify this storm as a KU? I would be interested to know. 

The scale of impact of that storm probably makes it 3 or higher. 

[Lucy Pull]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

The storms aren’t officially chosen until next year for this winter I think but given the huge geographic area affected and BOS walking away with 23”, it’s a very high likelihood. It’s based on severity times number of people affected. 

Agree, geographic area and sporadic maximum snow areas across a large portion of the country. Wondering what NESIS will come in at.

[Juturna]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

suburban districts absolutely care about state funding and will not chance losing it; i once taught all the way to june 30, in 1994, and gave up most of spring break, then started summer school. and i was in grad school. i was totally burned out.

Yeah, my district absolutely cares. They don't have a problem using snowdays when necessary, but they absolutely will take away school vacation days or add on days at the end of June to meet the criteria. 

 

As of now, I'm 100% calling for a snow day for my school Monday, and probably a 2 hour delay on Tuesday.

[Stormlover74]

Mt holly issued watches 

[North and West]

20 % Crippling Blizzard
70 % 8 -12
30 % 2 -4 inch
This is for me in Union/Northern Middlesex County NJ

what kind of math is this


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