Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[SACRUS]

 

 

[nycsnow]

[bluewave]

My only issue with the OP GFS is that the low further east usually becomes the main low like the Canadian and other guidance is showing. 
 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

2/20 12z ULMET Total QPF 2/22-2/23-24

 

[NJwx85]

Hard to see, but here are the 12z GEFS at hr 60. Some big hits in there.

GFS PRS ENSEMBLE (HOUR 60)

 

[nycsnow]

Huge shift 

 

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

My only issue with the OP GFS is that the low further east usually becomes the main low like the Canadian and other guidance is showing. 
 

 

 

Good point

[jm1220]

Hopefully the Euro can finally jump on so we can start really talking bigger amounts (GFS is still probably excessive until other guidance jumps on. Other models are still further east/more strung out with the low). 

[brooklynwx99]

full cave

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

2/20 12z Summary
 

Total QPF NYC

SREF: 1.2
NAM: 0.9
RGEM: 0.7
ICON: 1.0
GFS: 1.6
GFS AI AIGFS: 1.7
GGEM: 0.6
GEFS: 1.5
UMET: 0.9-1.0
 

 

Updated 12z

[EastonSN+]

So all show a good hit!!!!

Camp 1 low closer to the coast 12z

GFS

NAM

GFS AI

Camp 2 low further off the coast 12z

UKMET

CMC

RGEM

JMA

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Hopefully the Euro can finally jump on so we can start really talking bigger amounts (GFS is still probably excessive until other guidance jumps on. Other models are still further east/more strung out with the low). 

The other models have been coming in more west and wrapped up every run since yesterday's 18z suite.  The gfs could be too close to the coast so I guess only time will tell.

[Snowpsycho]

What storm did the JMA sniff out before any other models. It was a long time ago, can't remember when. Was it 1996?

[David-LI]

7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Hard to see, but here are the 12z GEFS at hr 60. Some big hits in there.

GFS PRS ENSEMBLE (HOUR 60)

 

I'll have number 11 with fries please

[CentralNJSnowman]

1 minute ago, Snowpsycho said:

What storm did the JMA sniff out before any other models. It was a long time ago, can't remember when. Was it 1996?

Not 1996.  Might have been 2006.

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

The other models have been coming in more west and wrapped up every run since yesterday's 18z suite.  The gfs could be too close to the coast so I guess only time will tell.

GFS ticked east so maybe a meet in the middle scenario is unfolding

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

The other models have been coming in more west and wrapped up every run since yesterday's 18z suite.  The gfs could be too close to the coast so I guess only time will tell.

Oh I agree, totally what we want to be seeing. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Snowpsycho said:

What storm did the JMA sniff out before any other models. It was a long time ago, can't remember when. Was it 1996?

2006

[495weatherguy]

Now that the expectations have done a 180 in 24 hours(no snow to a near blizzard)what can go wrong?  What are the odds we go back to out to sea?

odds of a crippling blizzard? 2 feet plus?

 

odds of a 8-12” storm?

 

odds of a 2-4” storm?

 

Im on LI and wouldn’t mind any of the above solutions

[NJwx85]

The 12z UKMET which has a known SE bias is well NW of the 00z run.

[ILoveWinter]

10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Hopefully the Euro can finally jump on so we can start really talking bigger amounts (GFS is still probably excessive until other guidance jumps on. Other models are still further east/more strung out with the low). 

Yea I’d guess the GFS is a bit overdone but that being said, seems like the immediate metro is in line for at least a SECS and that’s pretty awesome to me. 

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Now that the expectations have done a 180 in 24 hours(no snow to a near blizzard)what can go wrong?  What are the odds we go back to out to sea?

odds of a crippling blizzard? 2 feet plus?

 

odds of a 8-12” storm?

 

odds of a 2-4” storm?

 

Im on LI and wouldn’t mind any of the above solutions

20 % Crippling Blizzard

70 % 8 -12

30 % 2 -4 inch

This is for me in Union/Northern Middlesex County NJ

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Yea I’d guess the GFS is a bit overdone but that being said, seems like the immediate metro is in line for at least a SECS and that’s pretty awesome to me. 

Yep, looking more likely we finally break the curse with these coastal storms to some extent anyway. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

11 minutes ago, Snowpsycho said:

What storm did the JMA sniff out before any other models. It was a long time ago, can't remember when. Was it 1996?

March 1888

[Rjay]

Last 16 runs of the gfs. A little waffling in the beginning but then consistency. 

 

 

[ForestHillWx]

26 minutes ago, Nibor said:

There’s a lot of really amped members with a west lean; GFS going for glory with this storm. 

If the 06z op showed anything it was that it opened the low out in the Atlantic; it had the 2 dueling lows for a few runs. 

[SACRUS]

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Day 2 2/22 12z - 2/23 12z

 

[MJO812]

Forky thinks a major snowstorm is on the way. We listen when he is bold.

[Brian5671]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Forky thinks a major snowstorm is on the way. We listen when he is bold.

where is he?