Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

AI Weathernext2 (from Google DeepMind) which has done pretty well overall this winter, gives DC ~10” per the 6Z on SV though this is likely overdone since it is 10:1:

 

Little early to worried about ratios, gimme this precip distribution all day any day. 

[baltosquid]

2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

If we are under the ccb if this storm even exits on Sunday, I’m not worried about ground temps. We would have better ratios than that super cold storm in January.

Also, we have had snow cover for weeks and it still isn’t totally melted. I’m sure the ground is still a good bit colder than it otherwise would have been through this thaw thanks to the snowmelt going straight into it. Roads may be a tougher ask but then again, snow and white rain before CCB snow is probably a nightmare for treatment. 

[baldereagle]

17 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

My man!

Peeing mentally upon the legs of weenified souls while calling it rain will not make it rain. Because because the models! 

[TSSN+]

Icon looks like it will have a system. Let’s see where it goes 

[Grothar of Herndon]

19 minutes ago, H2O said:

Hey guys I’m not sure if anyone has also factored in how many cars will be out on the roads. Temps, soil, angle of the cold, blazing sun have all been mentioned. But we really need to think about all the SUVs and minivans making it rain

I blame Georgetown. Always rains in Georgetown! 

[Jake Wx]

Someone already posted but its nice to see the op euro at least on board 

[Weather Will]

Image

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[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, Jake Wx said:

Someone already posted but its nice to see the op euro at least on board 

Shame this is happening at the end of February during the day. Wish this could be an overnight storm. 

[TSSN+]

Icon has it. Little rain to start at hour 114 changing to snow at hour 120

[stormy]

41 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

The 6z Euro just gave me 2".

yeah, the 6z EURO is the lightest of the bunch,  strings everything out too much over 2 days.

Hopefully it will consolidate with 12z.

[bncho]

ICON looks better than 0z so far, but it drives a weak primary low into WV before transferring so thermals are kinda meh 

[TSSN+]

Costal hammer this run. It’s a step in right direction 

 

[Jake Wx]

We can work with this 

[Nomz]

8 minutes ago, Grothar of Herndon said:

I blame Georgetown. Always rains in Georgetown! 

Sorry 

[Weather Will]

ICON is at least in the same world as the others currently on board for a bigger hit west of Bay.

[wasnow215]

@psuhoffman made so much sense when he posted last night I believe. Predicting rain/ or "no snow" isn't rocket science. There are multiple different ways that can happen, so just because it doesn't snow doesn't make a person's call right. Especially in this environment good snow is hard to come by anyway.
 

I don't think it's a stretch at this point to say more than half the people on this thread (ant least) are going to see snow Sunday/Monday. How much, and how quickly it changes to snow or mixes etc., we won't really know until Friday at the earliest. 

[Paleocene]

New Jersey gets annihilated by the germans

[TSSN+]

Bring this southwest about 100 miles and call it a winter 

 

[bncho]

Just now, Paleocene said:

New Jersey gets annihilated by the germans

Maybe George Washington can fight back!

[stormy]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

ICON looks better than 0z so far, but it drives a weak primary low into WV before transferring so thermals are kinda meh 

Though I have not looked at it, your description is similar to the 6z GFS.

[baltosquid]

Just need that transfer to be earlier. If the primary makes it to northern WV we are not going to see the CCB in all likelihood. Shift the evolution west/earlier and we’re good.

[bncho]

1 minute ago, stormy said:

Though I have not looked at it, your description is similar to the 6z GFS.

Yes, but it has trouble getting its crap together before then (plus it's even weaker)

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Just need that transfer to be earlier. If the primary makes it to northern WV we are not going to see the CCB in all likelihood. Shift the evolution west/earlier and we’re good.

Whenever we play that game--especially in a Nina--we lose. And if other guidance starts showing later as well then then it's in trouble. I'd be kinda stoked if I were NJ or NY though

[winter_warlock]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Bring this southwest about 100 miles and call it a winter 

 

Amen brother!!

[baltosquid]

Also, the latitude delta between the primary and coastal is pretty funny. One center in Pittsburgh, the other on OBX. I feel like one of those is gonna move towards the other.

[GreyHat]

54 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Rev, grey hat and Chuck over here talking about rain 

Don't shoot the messenger. 

The best thing about those who are Mets, you can be 100% wrong just about all the time. Still keep your job.

[GaWx]

 Interestingly, the MJO forecasts of the major models are centered on phase 3 for Feb 22-23, the period of this snow threat. Based on Baltimore’s daily temperatures, phase 3 has by a good margin been the coldest MJO phase there during the 20 La Niña Februaries with it on average being 4F colder than the overall Feb Nina avg. Second coldest is phase 8, which has averaged 2F colder than the overall Feb Niña avg.

 In Feb of 1996, Baltimore got 8.2” during phase 3.

 In addition, forecasts have both a -EPO and a -WPO for Feb 22-23, two other favorable indices for cold. OTOH, the models have a moderate to strong -PNA for then, a potential negative factor for cold.

 So, MJO phase 3, -EPO, and -WPO would be favorable. But would a -PNA hurt?

[Kay]

2 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

Don't shoot the messenger. 

The best thing about those who are Mets, you can be 100% wrong just about all the time. Still keep your job.

Rage bait

[Jake Wx]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 Interestingly, the MJO forecasts of the major models are centered on phase 3 for Feb 22-23, the period of this snow threat. Based on Baltimore’s daily temperatures, phase 3 has by a good margin been the coldest MJO phase there during the 20 La Niña Februaries with it on average being 4F colder than the overall Feb Nina avg. Second coldest is phase 8, which has averaged 2F colder than the overall Feb Niña avg.

 In Feb of 1996, Baltimore got 8.2” during phase 3.

 In addition, forecasts have both a -EPO and a -WPO for Feb 22-23, two other favorable indices for cold. OTOH, the models have a moderate to strong -PNA for then, a potential negative factor for cold.

 So, MJO phase 3, -EPO, and -WPO would be favorable. But would a -PNA hurt?

Very interesting 

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

Don't shoot the messenger. 

The best thing about those who are Mets, you can be 100% wrong just about all the time. Still keep your job.

 

AI Overview:

 

In the American Revolutionary War, while the iconic tricorn (or cocked) hat was standard, popular color choices included black, grey, and tan (or "tobacco") felt, providing a less uniform, more practical look for soldiers. Grey tricorn hats were common among militia and infantry, offering functionality, such as channeling water.