Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

I hope we don't get 6-8" of snow with 2" of sleet on top. With temps as cold as they are that'll create a giant skating rink with horrendous plowing & travel conditions. 

That's far worse impact wise than a pure 12-15" snowstorm 

I agree. I remember the huge snow mounds in the city after the 3/14/17 storm even though a huge amount was sleet. Sleet has a disproportionately high impact for how much of it falls-1” of sleet is the same water content as 3-4” of snow and it tends to stick around a lot longer. I’d rather it snow all things considered but anyone who wants deep long lasting snowpack shouldn’t complain about some sleet thrown in after a big thump of snow. 

[snowman19]

For anyone interested, Hurricane Hunter recon flights are going out again this afternoon and the data they collect will be ingested into the 0z model runs tonight. The number/scope of weather balloon launches across the CONUS will also remain increased this afternoon and that data will also be in the new runs at 0z

[winterwx21]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I hope we don't get 6-8" of snow with 2" of sleet on top. With temps as cold as they are that'll create a giant skating rink with horrendous plowing & travel conditions. 

That's far worse impact wise than a pure 12-15" snowstorm 

What I don't like is when the ice is underneath the snow, like we had with a couple of the events this season. The wet snow melts at first so you end up having ice underneath the snow that you have to scrape hard to get up. Sleet on top of a powdery snow like we'll have this time won't be too bad to get up. 

[psv88]

i really think we have narrowed down close to a final solution. 

The only real loose ends are the development of the secondary low and its location to the coast. Thats the difference between 9 inches and 12" + for many, more so than mixing

[MJO812]

Wow MT Holly

[Stormlover74]

Waiting for the 48 hour hrdps to give me 2" of snow followed by 5" of sleet 

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wow MT Holly

are they not seeing the sleet or they're counting the south trend 

[psv88]

Just dug into the 12z Euro surface temps v 0z...temps from my area and most of long island came down about 1-2 degrees. PredictWind app is pretty cool for this. So the models are clearly picking up on the low level code. Other than the south fork, i dont see any plain rain. 

My area never gets above 30, and even the beaches of nassau and western suffolk never get above 32. 

[hooralph]

Strong coordination there between OKX and Mt. Holly. 

[winterwarlock]

Mt holly is being absurd....going to hug the NBM right off the cliff and then when its 6-12 in central jersey and 10-16 to the north will act like they got it right all along

 

most prudent would be to start out lower with what the actual models are putting out and then talk about the possibility of higher amounts

[psv88]

FWIW the Icon and GFS dont get above 25, and the Ukie also doesnt get above 30. 

Nice cold storm!

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wow MT Holly

Is that snow + sleet since technically sleet counts for totals. 

[winterwarlock]

Mt holly not even aligning with Upton..sigh

 

[wxman]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wow MT Holly

This will be a true test of forecasting skills versus just accepting what models spit out.  There is definitely support for this projected outcome, just outside what we view as the consensus of the better models.

[OrangeCTWX]

Just now, winterwarlock said:

Mt holly not even aligning with Upton..sigh

 

Again that is through 7pm Sunday lol. More to come after that. 

[psv88]

Just now, winterwarlock said:

Mt holly not even aligning with Upton..sigh

 

My Holly is storm total map, Upton is until 7 pm Sunday...apples and oranges

[weathermedic]

1 minute ago, winterwarlock said:

Mt holly not even aligning with Upton..sigh

 

That is only through 7pm Sunday

[winterwarlock]

ok thanks but it still seems extreme as if they are hugging the gfs

[Jt17]

are they not seeing the sleet or they're counting the south trend 

They like the GFS


.

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, Prue11 said:

This may be become a nowcast event to determine if or where the mix line sets up

it has to be said, every storm....

[Jt17]

Mt holly not even aligning with Upton..sigh
 

Mount Holly's forecast goes out 12 more hours 7 AM Monday - Upton ends at 7 PM Sunday

Main reason for the diff. They actually align.


.

[LovintheWhiteFluff]

1 minute ago, winterwarlock said:

ok thanks but it still seems extreme as if they are hugging the gfs

They said in their write-up that they were looking at the ensembles which were closer to benchmark. They think the transfer will happen sooner. 

[SACRUS]

 

We have consistency with QPF in the 1.00 or > range and even the warmest guidance has 6-9 inches of snow into nyc.

 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

ok thanks but it still seems extreme as if they are hugging the gfs

I think it’s a little high as well but if higher ratios work out it’s possible. In any case the north bumps seem to have stopped so that’s good. 

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, Winter Wizard said:

Ceiling on this is very high, there will be a large swath of 12"+ totals across the Northeast. For the City and coast itself however, there is a twofold concern related to the transfer from primary low to secondary: mid-level warming and arguably more consequentially the dry slotting. I would not be 100% on major totals at this point, but potential is there. First bonafide MECS in 5 years. 

lol i'll make it easy, if there is a dry slot it will be around northern middlesex co and southern union co in nj. 

[NJwx85]

4 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

ok thanks but it still seems extreme as if they are hugging the gfs

Haven’t realized yet that they are smarter than 99% of us here and have more detailed data to look at plus a vast amount of experience?

[MANDA]

28 minutes ago, JonClaw said:

Wow.  Pretty aggressive along the south shore of LI back to EWR.  Me personally I would have gone lower to start and then raise if needed tomorrow and/or Saturday.  I just think you set yourself up for egg on face starting at the upper ranges.  Just my 2 cents.  They clearly know what they are doing.  Any subtle shift north and those amounts will under perform.

[winterwarlock]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Haven’t realized yet that they are smarter than 99% of us here and have more detailed data to look at plus a vast amount of experience?

feb 20 2025 was that the date of a pretty big failure...there have been several

[North and West]

17 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Waiting for the 48 hour hrdps to give me 2" of snow followed by 5" of sleet 

[psv88]

1 minute ago, MANDA said:

Wow.  Pretty aggressive along the south shore of LI back to EWR.  Me personally I would have gone lower to start and then raise if needed tomorrow and/or Saturday.  I just think you set yourself up for egg on face starting at the upper ranges.  Just my 2 cents.  They clearly know what they are doing.  Any subtle shift north and those amounts will under perform.

Yes, that seems aggressive to me. I wouldnt go above 10-11" for the beaches right now. Maybe when get more clarity on the secondary...