Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[SACRUS]

 

UKMET to 66 looked similar to 12z

[SnoSki14]

Having a 3 day ensemble mean have a 976 low is crazy. 

[SACRUS]

2/20 18z GEFS 24H Mean Total QPF

[wishcast_hater]

20 minutes ago, TriPol said:

The GFS just out-NAM'd the NAM!

You've out-Neiled him!

[SACRUS]

 

UK through 66H with some more to come (similar to 12z) 

 

[EastonSN+]

UKIE

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

UKMET to 66 looked similar to 12z

More snow 

[MJO812]

H5 is beautiful on the ukie. Should have been more snow.

[SACRUS]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

More snow 

 

12z through and beyond that timeframe was more but overall simialr but more in line with the eastward leaning quicker storm

 

[kat5hurricane]

The amount of QPF the nam and GFS are printing out are almost unbelievable. I would never discount a pretty reliable model but the rgem is an outlier at this point so I'm not sure how much stock we can put into it. I also find it to be dry generally headed into these big events.

[WeatherGeek2025]

7 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Easy now...

gotta spread awareness you don't want people scheduling stuff during a blizzard, it's going to be dangerous to be out and about!

[SnoSki14]

Just now, MJO812 said:

H5 is beautiful on the ukie. Should have been more snow.

It tends to be more suppressed in general. Odd outputs sometimes.  I remember with the Jan storm it kept spewing 3-4" totals over NYC and into my region too vs the 10"+ amounts we got. 

[weathermedic]

Nick Gregory saying 8-12 for the city but also said if the trend continues he will have to increase amounts for the 10pm newscast

[EastonSN+]

I want one non-USA model to show the extreme amounts.

 

[MJO812]

Gefs is 12 plus for the city and NJ coast.

Insane for a mean

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs is 12 plus for the city and NJ coast.

Insane for a mean

 

[Snowman92]

Just now, MJO812 said:

 

I expect a 50-75mile NW shift for these totals where the heaviest swath of snow will be wilmington, philly, ne nj, nyc to boston

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

I can honestly say, nobody here cares about what a TV met has to say. He can't go out and start talking about feet of snow at this range. Ever since they got burned so badly with January 2015, just about every public met has taken a very conservative approach until the very last minute. 

Nah, we like Lee.

[Big Jims Videos]

there...are...no....words.  

HOWEVER, I am concerned about flooding.  Even though we're in between moon phases this water will pile up in a hurry.  

Besides that, lots of plans going into place in the newsroom today. 

[IrishRob17]

2 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

there...are...no....words.  

HOWEVER, I am concerned about flooding.  Even though we're in between moon phases this water will pile up in a hurry.  

Besides that, lots of plans going into place in the newsroom today. 

That and the wind will be big stories but there lots of folks with just snow goggles on which is somewhat understandable if they don't live along the coast. 

[mikeysed]

When does this start Sunday? Im on a cruise and flying home from miami on Sunday at 230pm . I hope I dont get trapped down here 

[Yanksfan]

19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

That’s just nuts for an ensemble.

[Dan76]

On 2/16/2026 at 8:05 PM, Rjay said:

It's tiring reading the back and forth about starting a thread vs not starting a thread.  Who cares.  There's no such thing as a jinx and even though the models have been performing poorly at this range this year, it's fine to discuss a storm in a dedicated thread.  Maybe it happens, maybe it doesn't but if it doesn't it's not bc a thread was started.  The pattern doesn't look ideal for a big storm but who knows! Enjoy all the ups and downs of tracking a possible event.  This forum is supposed to be fun. Enjoy the weather and may the odds be ever in your favor. 

We going to sizzler 

[ILoveWinter]

2 minutes ago, mikeysed said:

When does this start Sunday? Im on a cruise and flying home from miami on Sunday at 230pm . I hope I dont get trapped down here 

As things look now, late afternoon is when things really get going so your flight is at risk for a cancelation. 

[TJW014]

Mt Holly 1/10 chance maps. Haven't seen something like this in a LONG time

[Roger Smith]

Wow, I leave the keys to the weather machine on my desk, go to lunch, and now look at what's going on in here. 

[weatherpruf]

5 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

We going to sizzler 

man i saw that in 1973....still ranked as among the most terrifying films made......

[NsWx516]

Hey everyone, I’ve been a long time daily lurker here (since the early 2010’s)This forum gave me a heads up for Sandy and I was able to prepare accordingly so thanks to those that were around back then. I’m excited to track this storm with you guys and I’m looking forward to the next few model runs. Its looking amazing so far! 

[bluewave]

33 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs is 12 plus for the city and NJ coast.

Insane for a mean

The Canadian Ensemble mean also has 12”+ potential getting closer to NYC.

 

[boxingdayblizzard]

Does the ai euro run at 18z?