Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[MJO812]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i'd go with Blizzard warnings for NYC and east!

Not yet

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i'd go with Blizzard warnings for NYC and east!

No. Even if a blizzard is likely, the criteria do not allow for a blizzard warning at the lead time involved.

A Blizzard Warning means that the following conditions are occurring or expected within the next 12 to 18 hours.
1) Snow and/or blowing snow reducing visibility to 1/4 mile or less for 3 hours or longer
AND
2)  Sustained winds of 35 mph or greater or frequent gusts to 35 mph or greater.
There is no temperature requirement that must be met to achieve blizzard conditions.

https://www.weather.gov/lwx/warningsdefined#Blizzard Warning

[Blizzardo]

Blizzard criteria is very hard to meet these days. I don't see no watches or warnings for the B word being raised. We get Winter Storm Warnings and that's it. 

[coastalplainsnowman]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Not yet

At some point those of us NYC south and east don’t want this thing too much closer.  Seen this movie before.

[nycsnow]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i'd go with Blizzard warnings for NYC and east!

Yea it’s possible, totals don’t matter for blizzard warning so you can have 4-8 6-12 and still have a blizzard 

[MJO812]

Just now, coastalplainsnowman said:

At some point those of us NYC south and east don’t want it much closer right?  Seen this movie before.

It would benefit us more

[Freezing Drizzle]

1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

That's incorrect.  NWS forecast for NB through NYC is 4-6" through 7 am Monday, which would be 5-7" through the end of the storm at 1 pm Monday, assuming use of the NBM (which they said they followed closely).  See my other post with the maps and such.  

Hi RU, I like your posts, and the fact that you are just to my NW.

The forecasts in text this morning for the two areas were exactly as I wrote.

Since then, Mt. Holly downgraded it to this for Perth Amboy:

Sunday

Snow likely, possibly mixed with rain before 7am, then snow. High near 38. East wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

Sunday Night

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 70%.


However, Upton, for Staten Island, has increased the inches in their text forecast:
 

Sunday

Snow likely, possibly mixed with rain before 7am, then snow. High near 37. East wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Sunday Night

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

[mob1]

Just now, nycsnow said:

Yea it’s possible, totals don’t matter for blizzard warning so you can have 4-8 6-12 and still have a blizzard 

They sometimes hoist blizzard warnings in the plains just for blowing snow, even if there's nothing falling. 

[Rmine1]

Oh please Mother Nature, no “warm nose” this time!

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

At some point those of us NYC south and east don’t want this thing too much closer.  Seen this movie before.

imagine going from a miss to talking about mixed precip in 24 hrs...oh wait we did that on 1/25

[mob1]

I went from 0.000000000 to about 10 inches on the NAM. Pretty wild for a storm 60 hours out. 

[Nibor]

2 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

At some point those of us NYC south and east don’t want this thing too much closer.  Seen this movie before.

The surface low couid be 25 miles off ACY and the coast would still be snow. 

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

At some point those of us NYC south and east don’t want this thing too much closer.  Seen this movie before.

If this were trending like 5 days out then maybe but NW ticke in this range are welcomed 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Rmine1 said:

Oh please Mother Nature, no “warm nose” this time!

This wouldn’t be a “warm nose” type system-the 700 and 850 lows are tracking SE of us so no warm air advection at those levels. 

[NJwx85]

This is a classic deformation band system. If you're under the banding, you will get dumped on. If you're not under the banding, you won't get much. This is similar to, "holds my nose" Juno and the Boxing day 2010 system. The one we had in January was a completely different setup even though both are Miller B's.

[WeatherGeek2025]

10 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Yea it’s possible, totals don’t matter for blizzard warning so you can have 4-8 6-12 and still have a blizzard 

you can actually have blizzard warning with sunny skies as long as there's snow on the ground drifting and blowing snows from the windy conditions! But you're a weenie you know this!

[wishcast_hater]

7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

If this were trending like 5 days out then maybe but NW ticke in this range are welcomed 

Us guys up North want in on the action too.  

[Tatamy]

4 minutes ago, Nibor said:

The surface low couid be 25 miles of ACY and the coast would still be snow. 

Water temps south of LI and east of NJ range from 36 - 38.  This is close to the seasonal minimum and actually below normal.  Coastal areas are in a different world as compared to early December (water temps then are usually still in the 50s) regarding ocean warmth being poised to flood inland.

[wthrmn654]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

For reference, here are the 7z NBM numbers, including the spread between the 25th and 75th percentiles:

Snowfall:

Spread:

A large area, including the New York City region has a 6" or above spread. In short, big changes are still possible.

Where do you get those maps? 

[NJwx85]

I will say this and I don't care how arrogant it sounds, if you're worried about mixing in this scenario then you need to find a new hobby.

[SnoSki14]

Just now, wishcast_hater said:

Us guys up North want in on the action too.  

I'm by New Brunswick so on the cusp of potentially bigger amounts so let's keep the NW trend going 

[Snowman92]

This storm as big as it will be will end up trending NW by about 100 miles maybe more. 

[David-LI]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

you can actually have blizzard warning with sunny skies as long as there's snow on the ground drifting and blowing snows from the windy conditions! But you're a weenie you know this!

you cannot have a blizzard with sunny skies lol. visibility must be very low,  1/4 mile.

[Yanksfan]

10 minutes ago, Nibor said:

The surface low couid be 25 miles off ACY and the coast would still be snow. 

Yep. A storm this intense will supply its own cold air. The only thing I’d worry about if this monster tucks would be a dry slot.

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

Us guys up North want in on the action too.  

nobody is getting rain from a dynamic system like that and it's way offshore even if it tucks more it'll get even stronger and more dynamic. But we want it to tuck so it's stronger and we get snow for our northern friends

[nycsnow]

[Joe4alb]

better and better

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, David-LI said:

you cannot have a blizzard with sunny skies lol. visibility must be very low,  1/4 mile.

yes you can buddy yes you can as long as the visibility is 1/4 of a mile and sustained winds of 35 mph for 4 hours or longer! The warning would come from the snow blowing around and causing low visibility! 

[Joe4alb]

[Jersey_Snowhole]

4 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

you can actually have blizzard warning with sunny skies as long as there's snow on the ground drifting and blowing snows from the windy conditions! But you're a weenie you know this!

Serious question are you in your teen? Because then a lot of things would make sense.