Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[jm1220]

Just now, mob1 said:

NAM gets you to 32 for a bit, and if it's right about the primary being that strong and holding on for so long, it can be even warmer. Still snow and sleet with frigid temperatures to start, but when you can't just say it's cold when the entire dynamics change and it's entirely possible that a large chunk of coastal areas get to or above freezing. 

Maybe the eastern tip of LI changes to rain but I highly doubt anyone else does unless we see prolonged onshore winds given the severity of the cold air coming in. I could see freezing rain happening if we get a shallower cold layer at the surface. Bottom line is hopefully this NAM run is wrong. 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

is this slowly becoming a 4-6 inch snow event for the city? NAM always does this not sure if it's right or wrong!

you better go adjust your numbers in the snowfall contest

[winterwarlock]

listen to yourselves..you want to through the nam and the euro out and run with the gfs

[weatherpruf]

8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

That NAM run wasn’t great but we’re still 36hrs out and things are going to continue to fluctuate. Any further North and there’s going to be some serious ZR issues for Southern parts of the area. Even as is, the NAM has about a 30 mile swath of 0.10 to 0.20 more or less over 95 with closer to a half inch South of Philly and into DC.

they could also get plain rain in the southern parts, but i don't know if that would help. 

[danstorm]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

This model has been pretty solid this winter. 

Do we have a comparison with the prior run?

That is the prior run - he posted 12z

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Just now, winterwarlock said:

listen to yourselves..you want to through the nam and the euro out and run with the gfs

We all pick our poison. Js. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

you better go adjust your numbers in the snowfall contest

I guess we can until 5PM tomorrow than i'll tell Rjay to lock it

[weatherpruf]

Just now, winterwarlock said:

listen to yourselves..you want to through the nam and the euro out and run with the gfs

gfs is trending north too, just read it on nws.

[Joe4alb]

Icons rolling, lets see if we can bat .000 for the 18z suite

[NEG NAO]

Just now, Joe4alb said:

Icons rolling, lets see if we can bat .000 for the 18z suite

the goal is too make that NAM run the outlier

[BoulderWX]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

the goal is too make that NAM run the outlier

NAM, RRFS, NAM 3K, EURO are all single digit snowfalls for the nyc metro. It’s not just the NAM, though NAM is the least snowy of the bunch 

[SACRUS]

 

1/23 18z RGEM updating

 

 

 

 

 

 

[TriPol]

Remember, the NAM is being retired.

[eduggs]

11 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said:

FWIW, on RRFS, the sleet line only barely brushes LI but keeps the city all snow

The RRFS is snowier than the NAM for sure, but the RRFS also shifted northward with the heaviest snow and the thermals. 12z had better ratios and was a mid-HV down to near NYC jack. 18z has it up near ALB with heavy snows to the NY border. Obviously it will shift around somewhat but it's disappointing not to see a clear colder/south trend at 18z so far.

[Prue11]

12 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

is this slowly becoming a 4-6 inch snow event for the city? NAM always does this not sure if it's right or wrong!

It honestly wouldn’t surprise me. But people neeed to stop

panicking it was one run no other model has it as bad 

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

NAM, RRFS, NAM 3K, EURO are all single digit snowfalls for the nyc metro. It’s not just the NAM, though NAM is the least snowy of the bunch 

I am not talking outlier regarding snowfall amounts - I am talking outlier regarding sleet/freezing rain amounts rather have dry slot then sleet or freezing rain

[winterwarlock]

7 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

gfs is trending north too, just read it on nws.

yup if people were paying attention to it, it little by little kept introducing mix where as it had  one a couple days ago and its spitting out less snow but hey everyone just wants to run with kuchera

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

NAM, RRFS, NAM 3K, EURO are all single digit snowfalls for the nyc metro. It’s not just the NAM, though NAM is the least snowy of the bunch 

If you add 1-2" of sleet that counts as accumulation too but I always thought 12" for NYC which they have now and 14" yesterday was too aggressive. I'd go with 12" maybe in Yonkers and 8" in SI/Rockaway. 

[Joe4alb]

Looks to me like the ICON is holding the primary longer and stronger through 48hrs

[mob1]

I think 4-8" is the right forecast now till you get to 25+ miles north and west of the city. 

[psv88]

Just now, winterwarlock said:

yup if people were paying attention to it, it little by little kept introducing mix where as it had  one a couple days ago and its spitting out less snow but hey everyone just wants to run with kuchera

Everyone knows its been trending north. Some people should step away and take a break. 

[Lucy Pull]

ICON does not look like it’s gonna bring good vibes. Consolidated vort and heights  higher at 42 compared to 12z.

[winterwarlock]

5 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

NAM, RRFS, NAM 3K, EURO are all single digit snowfalls for the nyc metro. It’s not just the NAM, though NAM is the least snowy of the bunch 

yup throw the nam out, throw the euro out, throw the eukie out......the thing is the gfs has been on an island the whole time and even with that is showing signs of a cave 

[NJwx85]

18z ICON is one hell of an ice storm South of I-80. Plain rain on the Jersey coast up to about Tom’s River.

[Tar Heel Snow]

Shoot, sorry everyone. Not sure why pivotal defaulted to showing the old run when I clicked, but the 18z RRFS was a lot messier 

about 8-9 hours of snow and then 8-9 hours of IP/ZR. Ugh. Don’t like the direction this and the NAM went at all

[SACRUS]

 

 

 

 

 

[BoulderWX]

1 minute ago, Lucy Pull said:

ICON does not look like it’s gonna bring good vibes. Consolidated vort and heights  higher at 42 compared to 12z.

Yup. Well this has been a fun 18z suite

[SACRUS]

 

[jm1220]

Just now, winterwarlock said:

yup if people were paying attention to it, it little by little kept introducing mix where as it had  one a couple days ago and its spitting out less snow but hey everyone just wants to run with kuchera

It was going to cave eventually. This type of storm doesn't jackpot NYC to Philly. These do best along I-90. This is the storm where Boston catches up and probably surpasses us at least along the coast for seasonal snow-wouldn't be surprised if they get 16-18". We're lucky we have this high pressure dome in place to provide an overrunning surface so we get the initial thump of snow down into VA, otherwise this would be the usual SWFE couple inches to rain/sleet. But is something like the NAM possible here with a stronger primary low-sure. Even that though would probably be 4-6" snow then a couple more inches of sleet-however it would also bring the dryslot in quicker. 

[BxEngine]

10 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

NAM, RRFS, NAM 3K, EURO are all single digit snowfalls for the nyc metro. It’s not just the NAM, though NAM is the least snowy of the bunch 

No.