Hurricane Melissa

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Officially a Cat 5

[nycwinter]

7 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Recon measured 158kts in the north eyewall at the surface. This equates to 180-185mph range for surface winds.

those winds were not measured at the surface..

[Superstorm]

5:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 27
Location: 16.4°N 77.8°W
Moving: W at 3 mph
Min pressure: 917 mb
Max sustained: 160 mph


.

[Superstorm]

5:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 27
Location: 16.4°N 77.8°W
Moving: W at 3 mph
Min pressure: 917 mb
Max sustained: 160 mph


.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Third cat 5 of the season. Absolutely insane.

[jsw]

I downloaded these this morning.

[Windspeed]

Most recent long-range radar scan. The eyewall remains uniform and intense. It does appear a concentric outer band is trying to form around the periphery of the eyewall. We still have 24-28 hours until landfall. That is plenty of time for an EWRC to begin. The forecast is for Melissa to be a Category 5 at landfall, but internal structural changes could still bring down that intensity to Category 4. But again, that is not necessarily a good thing for the island, as the windfield would expand east towards higher populated areas. I actually do think the intensity will fluctuate down by landfall as I still think outer banding will get its act together and weaken the small eye by tonight. It is very difficult for a high-end TC like this to maintain that intensity for that many hours without fluctuations. Time will tell.

[NorthHillsWx]

No words. Just a beast this morning 

[Jefflaw77]

When is it projected to turn north?

[NJwx85]

8 minutes ago, Jefflaw77 said:

When is it projected to turn north?

I believe it’s already West of the official track.

[NorthHillsWx]

22 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I believe it’s already West of the official track.

It definitely is. Looks like it’s just now starting to gain some latitude 

[hawkeye_wx]

31 minutes ago, Jefflaw77 said:

When is it projected to turn north?

This afternoon is when models have it taking a fairly sharp right turn.

[cptcatz]

Recon first pass: 155 kt FL winds, pressure 912, incredible dropsonde

[Brian5671]

40 inches of rain possible NE Jamaica

[SnoSki14]

Just looking at radar and satellite you'd think this monster would harmlessly bypass Jamaica to the south. They would need a miracle now 

[eyewall]

Hopefully there is an ERC prior to landfall.

[hawkeye_wx]

Latest dropsonde says 913 mb.  Max nw side FL wind is 158 kts.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Hopefully there is an ERC prior to landfall.

I don't know that they would benefit much....so peak winds would be maybe 140mph instead of 160mph....bit less damage over a tiny area, but a bit more damage over a larger area from a larger wind field and greater surge capacity. It would also stand to increase the rainshield in aerial coverage.

I do agree we will see one, though.

[eyewall]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't know that they would benefit much....so peak winds would be maybe 140mph instead of 160mph....bit less damage over a tiny area, but a bit more damage over a larger area from a larger wind field and greater surgge capacity.

I do agree we will see one, though.

Oh it will be awful no matter what. But we will take any small amount of help we can get.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

Oh it will be awful no matter what. But we will take any small amount of help we can get.

I do think the WSW jog is a small break.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah an ERC may put Kingston more in jeopardy in terms of higher winds and rain, but luckily they should not be near the eye wall. Either way really bad situation there. Beautiful island, but not exactly one that has the infrastructure to deal with this. 

[Hotair]

Footage of flooding coming in from Dominican Republic this morning is bad enough.  Can’t imagine what people of Haiti are going through.  However all of Jamaica better seek shelter higher up cause the coastline is about to get decimated.  
 

This one reminds me of Wilma as a late storm cat 5, but even that made landfall in Mexico as only a 4.  this may well be the most powerful storm to hit the island of Jamaica in recorded history.
 

To put it in perspective 45 deaths were attributed to Gilbert back in ‘88 and that was a C3.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Hotair said:

Footage of flooding coming in from Dominican Republic this morning is bad enough.  Can’t imagine what people of Haiti are going through.  However all of Jamaica better seek shelter higher up cause the coastline is about to get decimated.  
 

This one reminds me of Wilma as a late storm cat 5, but even that made landfall in Mexico as only a 4.  this may well be the most powerful storm to hit the island of Jamaica in recorded history.
 

To put it in perspective 45 deaths were attributed to Gilbert back in ‘88 and that was a C3.  

Higher up will have stronger winds and heavier rain, too.....ugh...safer from surge, but elevation will amplify the senisble storm impacts.

[cptcatz]

If an ERC happens soon, it could mean much worse impacts over bigger areas. Right now the storm is really small. If it turned north right now, eastern Jamaica wouldn't even get hurricane force winds and surge would be minimal outside of the small core. 

[ATDoel]

5 hours ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Recon Hunters are currently inside Melissa. Those previous readings were measured in the south quadrant. In Atlantic hurricanes, the south quad typically features weaker winds and higher pressure. The higher winds and lowest pressure (peak intensity) reside in the northeast quadrant. 
 

So process that for a minute. The weaker quadrant of the hurricane measured at 923mb with 150mph winds. What do you think they will find in the northeast quadrant?

It just depends on forward motion, it isn't basin specific. When Melissa starts moving NE, the strong side will be the SE side.

[MN Transplant]

Have we ever seen a cat 5 hurricane make a massive change in direction while maintaining strength?

[Windspeed]

Recon may be positioning to make an east to west pass. I say that because their current flight path would miss the eye unless they turn due west.

Nevermind. I don't know what I was looking at there. It is still a NE to SW pass.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Have we ever seen a cat 5 hurricane make a massive change in direction while maintaining strength?

It's moving so slow that it may not matter-if it were moving at 10mph and suddenly lurched north then I can see what you're saying...

[Windspeed]

910 extrap

[CoastalWx]

She’s already passing 78 W. I think the western part of the island and places like Montego Bay could have issues. Basically 12z guidance turns it N now, but I don’t see signs of that quite yet.